No thoughts on NK and SK discussions?

centermass556centermass556 Senior MemberPosts: 3,429 Senior Member

Some analysts are saying it is hollow summit and promise, others are saying it is the real deal.

The optimist in me wants to believe this is the real deal. That we have successfully isolated NK from the world, to include china, and they realize that peace is the only answer. The Realist in me says only time will tell. They is a saying that a tiger can't change his stripes, and a leopard can't change his spots.

It would be nice to see NK come over to the Capitalist and Democratic/Republican way of life, but I think if the talk of peace is true they will end up more like China. They will institute a Marxist class system that allows for capitalist style trade and commerce under and overarching communist society largely aimed at the lower classes.

"To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."

Replies

  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 7,473 Senior Member
    We can only hope at this point.
    Watching the leaders of North and South shake hands and actually be invited to step over the boarder was good to watch. I have been to the swiss compound back in 1982 and there really is a building with a room and a table with a line down the middle.
    So just maybe it will work
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • DanChamberlainDanChamberlain Senior Member Posts: 2,961 Senior Member
    Kim's trip to China last month seems to make the timing of his current magnanimity suspect. China is definitely involved. Perhaps they have offered Kim a place to live in opulence when and if the two Koreas unify.

    It's a source of great pride for me, that when my name is googled, one finds book titles and not mug shots. Daniel C. Chamberlain
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 9,785 Senior Member
    NK has a very long history of dishonorable behavior and breaking their promises, so I have low expectations. They have to give up something big, to get the ball rolling for any concessions, and they must prove themselves over a long period of time. Their leadership is obviously hurting, to have even come this far, so maybe there is a chance for success. But we should agree to nothing that does not include random inspection by our own people at the places and times of our choosing.

    Personally, I think our own hands are tied in any negotiation, because of what we are letting Iran get away with. NK will expect the same treatment, and that will be seen as a legitimate argument, by most of the world. I'm sure that this is the point Trump was making to France and Germany, in their recent meetings. The presidents behavior with the Iran 'treaty' will determine whether there is anything to be gained with NK. If he doesn't pull out of it, there is nothing to be gained with NK negotiations.


  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 675 Senior Member
    It's all show.

    But;
    The stage is set. With the natural progression of time dictorial dynasty could give way for economic opportunity, at least for some, a little at a time. 
  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 6,617 Senior Member

    Some analysts are saying it is hollow summit and promise, others are saying it is the real deal.

    The optimist in me wants to believe this is the real deal. That we have successfully isolated NK from the world, to include china, and they realize that peace is the only answer. The Realist in me says only time will tell. They is a saying that a tiger can't change his stripes, and a leopard can't change his spots.

    It would be nice to see NK come over to the Capitalist and Democratic/Republican way of life, but I think if the talk of peace is true they will end up more like China. They will institute a Marxist class system that allows for capitalist style trade and commerce under and overarching communist society largely aimed at the lower classes.

    How long has it been since Kim blew apart a general/advisor for drifting off at a meeting?  He's a fat tub of lard in a country where even the top brass appearing with him are stick figures.  He's spent his entire time in charge antagonizing a nuclear superpower with a popgun.  And we're supposed to believe he has seen "reason"?

    What was it that Dennis Miller said when East and West Germany were getting ready to reunify?  Something to the effect of:

    "If there is anyone among us who sees no reason why these two should not be joined, let him forever hold his piece. . .in the ready position with the safety OFF."
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
  • JerryBobCoJerryBobCo Senior Member Posts: 6,040 Senior Member

    As far as I'm concerned, the jury is still out on this one.  I guess we'll find out just how good our president's negotiating skills are.   Hopefully some damn liberal judge can't overstep his power and put a stop to anything the two sides agree to.

    I have my fingers crossed.

    Jerry

    Gun control laws make about as much sense as taking ex-lax to cure a cough.
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 6,393 Senior Member

    ..........It would be nice to see NK come over to the Capitalist and Democratic/Republican way of life, but I think if the talk of peace is true they will end up more like China. They will institute a Marxist class system that allows for capitalist style trade and commerce under and overarching communist society largely aimed at the lower classes.

    At least they already have the right name for it....DPRK.....Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
    Political correctness is a liberal degrading of the freedom of speech. George Orwell's 1984 famously incorporated the notion of limiting thought through language (see Newspeak)." Meanwhile, the beatings will continue until morale improves around here.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 9,785 Senior Member
    Well, if you accept Alf's and Jerminator's 'elite theory,' which I do make some concession to, the elites will always benefit, unless the 'rank and file' have finally become so disgusted that they will gang up and hang them up by the heels, a la Mussolini. Even then, you probably just get a different set of elites.

    So, in the unlikely event that little Kim actually does denounce his nuclear blackmail approach to foreign policy, I expect that it will be more of a Saddam Hussein type setup, rather than anything approaching the finesse that China operates its dictatorship. That would mean more basic fascism than the communistic brand of capitalism that China uses.

    Really, though, I just can't imagine Kim Jong Un being able to change much of anything, and still survive. He has to be able to murder anyone with any brains at all, to survive. That doesn't leave anybody to manage his people, without starvation being used to keep them quiet.

  • JayhawkerJayhawker Moderator Posts: 13,651 Senior Member
    I'm just not sure....Based on some of the antics I witnessed when I was there in the 70s I am deeply suspicious of the motives of the North Koreans....I halfway expect them to bomb the meeting.....
    Sharps Model 1874 - "The rifle that made the west safe for Winchester"
  • AntonioAntonio Senior Member Posts: 2,107 Senior Member
    Gestures in politics are paramount, and both heads of state crossing the DMZ line holding hands must have been a VERY powerful image at least for SKs, regardless of the results.

    Couldn't care less what kind of government NKs end up getting from the potential deactivation of the armistice and signing of a formal peace, reunification talks, etc. as long as they stop being a menace (Imaginary or real) for the region.

    My guess is that economics has A LOT to do with the current situation; probably Trump's meeting with Xi Jinpin, the latter's with Kim and US officials with the NK ended up clearing that the stalemate is bad business fro everyone, specially for China since trade with NK seems more out of pity than real economical interests when contrasted with all the worldwide geopolitical passives that result from such deals.
    Unlike the tyrants before him, this Kim was educated in the West and had a better comprehension of the world outside the paranoid, isolated "socialist dreamland" created by those before him; also not having such a close relationship with the "old guard" of the power structure that supports the regime like his dad and grandfather made him realize that the current situation couldn't be sustainable no more and that SOME degree of compromising and change is needed to, as mentioned early, secure some kind of "A-la-Chinese" political structure that allows better economical conditions for the people out of international trade but keeping the ruling class safe in their seats.

    Only time will tell; at least not having those allegedly thousands of artillery pieces aiming at Seoul in the close future will be a nice thing for a change.

    In  the lighter side, wonder how hard are the anti-Trumpites rolling over their own vomit for having him in power while such an important situation is happening, specially considering he has uncommonly restricted himself from blabbing about it and how he supposedly precipitated  such event?
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 675 Senior Member
    Kim aint gonna live forever, even if he has a full natural life. South Korea is enjoying  a level of economic prosperity that comes with world trade. I am of the personal opinion that the perpetuation of dictatorial family dynasty can't compete with the attractions of commerce over the long hall. Shaking a nuclear fist is no fun with empty pockets. At some point some successor will abandon the club and embrace the green.
  • bullsi1911bullsi1911 Moderator Posts: 9,078 Senior Member
    Lil Kim is obsessed with western celebrities (from what I understand).  This is one of the GOOD byproducts of having a Reality TV star as president.

    Will he stand by an agreement, or even make one?  Dunno.  But this is further than ANYONE has gotten with the NKs in a long damn time.
    To make something simple is a thousand times more difficult than to make something complex.
    -Mikhail Kalashnikov
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 21,925 Senior Member
    Since the mountain under which he was conducting nuclear tests collapsed and is likely to collapse further, his offer to stop nuclear bomb testing is suspect on its face. As to whether he would honor any agreements, we have had DECADES of his father, and now him, signing agreements and then breaking them when they get the food and fuel they need, or whatever sanctions lifted. I wouldn't trust Lil' Kim as far as I could throw his chubby carcass while I was wearing a full body cast. That's my take on it.
    Non Sibi Sed Patriage (Not for self, but country)



  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 17,979 Senior Member

    I wonder if that super-secret meeting with our Secretary of State designee might have included a detailed diagram of targeting coordinates of Kim's whereabouts for the past few months, along with the suggestion that if he screws up he might get the opportunity to see one of our missiles up close and personal a couple of seconds before it vaporizes him?  The only thing most dictators understand is a direct threat to themselves.

    Jerry

     

    Hide and wail in terror, Eloi- - - -We Morlocks are on the hunt!
    ASK-HOLE Someone who asks for advice and always does something opposite
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 21,925 Senior Member
    That threat didn't work with Manuel Noriega, so he got the full Monty treatment.
    Non Sibi Sed Patriage (Not for self, but country)



  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 7,852 Senior Member
    I think they really want to make a deal and that the only reason they've saber rattled so much over the years and pursued nukes so fervently is to strike a better deal. 

    I am as big a critic of Trump as anyone, but this is one area where I think he has a real opportunity to do some real lasting good. The status quo benefits no one, including Kim. Give them an out. Open up trade. Let them become the next third world hell hole turned source of super cheap manufacturing labor. Let them trade their military might for a bit of economic power. 
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 20,866 Senior Member
    I think a few of you hit it on the head, to include A[pha and Teach. Teaches point about them putting it to Kim like if you want to stay on this side of the ground processing oxygen and protein for a while, get off the Nuke threats. Also, like Al[pha said, shaking the Nuke Spear did improve everyone's desire to deal with him, I have cautious optimism about this.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 20,866 Senior Member
    Also, CM you make some good points as usual.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 30,712 Senior Member
    edited May 2 #20
    Well I hope the talks on Korea don't go........Drum Roll Please   Drummer animated emoticon......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... er...........Sideways Crying Laughter animated emoticon


    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
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  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,429 Senior Member

    Just read today that Kim is releasing US detainees and making a few other concessions. As some mentioned, it could be a trick. But, as someone already said, I think the pressure from the US via China has shown Kim that NK will not last much longer with the games that NK has played.

    I didn't start connecting some of the dots until yesterday while running. We can guess the tariff move by Trump was to help convince China they need to help us with NK. But, I think there is some deeper pressure within the Chinese government that is making NK play ball. China has been slowly making huge strides to growing a sphere of influence of the pacific area, very much like the Japanese were trying to do prior to WWII. The US had taken notice, but we didn't take a huge notice like we should have. However, when Kim ramped up his saber rattling and nuclear program, USPACCOM became the theater of emphasis. We increased out Naval presence, we opened a base in Australia to conduct training in the pacific, we increased troop numbers in Korea with exercise deployments. In short, we made China uncomfortable with our increased presence in the pacific. I am wondering if China has made NK play nice for the sake of China's larger plans in the pacific.

    I also wouldn't put it past our government to strike a deal with China that portions up the Pacific area. There are few countries that could go either way. Vietnam is one of them. They have been the Yugoslavia of the communist countries in that area. While they are in the same party as China, they never let China tie puppet strings to them and have been moving to adopt a more democratic way of life. That whole Indochina area is on the fence of being able to go either way. So, China cuts us NK for being allowed to extend influence in Indochina? Or, since we have increased manufacturing and few other things in Vietnam, we get Vietnam, NK makes peace but stays with China? I know that is a little on conspiracy side of thinking. But, it would not be the first time the world was portioned by the super powers

    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 6,393 Senior Member
    Sounds like a reasonable theory to me. There are so many variables, that it's hard to be sure, but I like your insight.
    Political correctness is a liberal degrading of the freedom of speech. George Orwell's 1984 famously incorporated the notion of limiting thought through language (see Newspeak)." Meanwhile, the beatings will continue until morale improves around here.
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 21,925 Senior Member
    China is making some serious moves in the area. And the building of those islands and manning them with troops and combat aircraft is a provocative measure making both Japan and Taiwan nervous, and with good cause. That area is going to be the real hot spot for the U.S. to deal with in the next few decades. China is getting frisky.
    Non Sibi Sed Patriage (Not for self, but country)



  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 7,852 Senior Member
    I think China recognizes that the costs of the crazy Kims are starting to outweigh the benefits. For a long time they were a useful distraction to keep us and other world powers occupied and expending resources to deal with. That obviously has it's benefits. However they have a growing economic relationship with Seoul and they are also making a play for more influence over the region. You can't claim to be the major regional power when you have one of your client states constantly threatening to nuke one of your biggest regional trading partners. Similarly as I said above, China is trying to shift their economy away from low value manufacturing dependent on slave wages and is trying to grow their middle class. NK is a perfect place to begin moving a lot of that low value manufacturing as they have a decent sized population and currently virtually zero economic opportunity. The calculus points far too strongly in the direction of bringing NK into line over continuing to allow them to go rogue.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho

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