China, NK, and US - Alternate thought

centermass556centermass556 Senior MemberPosts: 3,466 Senior Member
I am beginning to develop an alternate Hypothesis. But, I will only know for sure as things go forward.

I think China has lost its control on NK and Kim. While China is gaining world influence on the economic and cyber front, I highly suspect that China is loosing influence at home with its growing militarization looks to start sucking up industrial resources in the south east pacific. Look at Vietnam, China has virtually no influence over Vietnam and most of Indochina. I think that NK is tired of being at the end of China's puppet string, took a look at the board, and figured a change in course would viably bring him to the world table. NK is like China and Taiwan when it comes to labor base. Think about the investment opportunities. Especially if Trump offers incentives for investing in NK to help bring them on board with the world...

Just a hypothesis.
"To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."

Replies

  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 22,292 Senior Member
    Sounds reasonable to me. If Lil Kim can see the advantages that could be had by opening up and coming into the 21st Century, then he might loosen up a bit at a time and see what develops.
    Non Sibi Sed Patriage (Not for self, but country)



  • knitepoetknitepoet Senior Member Posts: 17,106 Senior Member
    Sounds plausible
    Seven Habits of Highly Effective Pirates, Rule #37: There is no “overkill”. There is only “open fire” and “I need to reload”.


  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 9,911 Senior Member
    I believe there is some truth there, but NK still has to have China and Russia cheating on trade sanctions to continue. It may be bad to be at the end of the puppet string, but they are still dependent, and will continue to be while they are becoming non-nuclear enough for Trump to cut them slack.


  • Wambli SkaWambli Ska Moderator Posts: 25,720 Senior Member
    I am beginning to develop an alternate Hypothesis. But, I will only know for sure as things go forward.

    I think China has lost its control on NK and Kim. While China is gaining world influence on the economic and cyber front, I highly suspect that China is loosing influence at home with its growing militarization looks to start sucking up industrial resources in the south east pacific. Look at Vietnam, China has virtually no influence over Vietnam and most of Indochina. I think that NK is tired of being at the end of China's puppet string, took a look at the board, and figured a change in course would viably bring him to the world table. NK is like China and Taiwan when it comes to labor base. Think about the investment opportunities. Especially if Trump offers incentives for investing in NK to help bring them on board with the world...

    Just a hypothesis.
    I agree but I don't think it's China loosing influence as much as them loosing interest in NK.  You can only feed your poor looser cousin so long before you just try to find them another place to mooch off from.  All NK has to offer is cheap labor and China is tripping all over cheap labor internally.  SK can take advantage of the labor pool up North and China does not care how many new LG and Samsung TVs they make for the US market...
    "Attack rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously, without rest, however tired and hungry you may be, the enemy will be more tired, more hungry. Keep punching." General George S. Patton
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 7,907 Senior Member
    I am beginning to develop an alternate Hypothesis. But, I will only know for sure as things go forward.

    I think China has lost its control on NK and Kim. While China is gaining world influence on the economic and cyber front, I highly suspect that China is loosing influence at home with its growing militarization looks to start sucking up industrial resources in the south east pacific. Look at Vietnam, China has virtually no influence over Vietnam and most of Indochina. I think that NK is tired of being at the end of China's puppet string, took a look at the board, and figured a change in course would viably bring him to the world table. NK is like China and Taiwan when it comes to labor base. Think about the investment opportunities. Especially if Trump offers incentives for investing in NK to help bring them on board with the world...

    Just a hypothesis.
    I agree but I don't think it's China loosing influence as much as them loosing interest in NK.  You can only feed your poor looser cousin so long before you just try to find them another place to mooch off from.  All NK has to offer is cheap labor and China is tripping all over cheap labor internally.  SK can take advantage of the labor pool up North and China does not care how many new LG and Samsung TVs they make for the US market...
    Actually the cheap labor part is an important one. China is rapidly developing. In the first phase it's all about cheap labor and producing as much as you can for export. But that only lasts so long. They're moving into the second phase where they are trying to build up a larger middle class and encourage domestic consumption. With a middle class comes demands for higher wages, better working conditions and subesquently higher costs. Phase two is also when you start trying to find even poorer countries to offload your lowest value manufacturing to. NK is an obvious choice. In phase 1 NK acted as a distraction for us and also keeping their labor off the international market benefited China by removing competition. Now however their value as a distraction is not as valuable as their value as a source of cheap labor that China now has the wealth and economy to fully exploit.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 16,000 Senior Member
    Loose or lose?
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    Carry a 25 if it makes you feel good, but do not ever load it. If you load it, you may shoot it. If you shoot it, you may hit somebody, and if you hit somebody – and he finds out about it – he may be very angry with you. --Jeff Cooper
  • Wambli SkaWambli Ska Moderator Posts: 25,720 Senior Member
    I am beginning to develop an alternate Hypothesis. But, I will only know for sure as things go forward.

    I think China has lost its control on NK and Kim. While China is gaining world influence on the economic and cyber front, I highly suspect that China is loosing influence at home with its growing militarization looks to start sucking up industrial resources in the south east pacific. Look at Vietnam, China has virtually no influence over Vietnam and most of Indochina. I think that NK is tired of being at the end of China's puppet string, took a look at the board, and figured a change in course would viably bring him to the world table. NK is like China and Taiwan when it comes to labor base. Think about the investment opportunities. Especially if Trump offers incentives for investing in NK to help bring them on board with the world...

    Just a hypothesis.
    I agree but I don't think it's China loosing influence as much as them loosing interest in NK.  You can only feed your poor looser cousin so long before you just try to find them another place to mooch off from.  All NK has to offer is cheap labor and China is tripping all over cheap labor internally.  SK can take advantage of the labor pool up North and China does not care how many new LG and Samsung TVs they make for the US market...
    Actually the cheap labor part is an important one. China is rapidly developing. In the first phase it's all about cheap labor and producing as much as you can for export. But that only lasts so long. They're moving into the second phase where they are trying to build up a larger middle class and encourage domestic consumption. With a middle class comes demands for higher wages, better working conditions and subesquently higher costs. Phase two is also when you start trying to find even poorer countries to offload your lowest value manufacturing to. NK is an obvious choice. In phase 1 NK acted as a distraction for us and also keeping their labor off the international market benefited China by removing competition. Now however their value as a distraction is not as valuable as their value as a source of cheap labor that China now has the wealth and economy to fully exploit.
    China is absolutely developing swiftly but I just got a briefing on them and their cheap labor pool is still pretty much larger than the aggregate of all other industrialized countries so the chances of China importing a cheaply made Korean (North or South) made TV are still on the negative side of zero.  NK becoming a new factory to the world will not move the China needle at all.  BTW have you noticed that the market for HD TVs has completely segmented so Korean brands are now building the “high end” units and the Chinese are taking over the “inexpensive” market?  I just saw a 65” Chinese 4K unit for less than $500 in Costco and quite frankly it looked amazing.  Tough to justify paying more than twice that for a Samsung or LG, specially when I know the guts are probably Chinese made anyway.
    "Attack rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously, without rest, however tired and hungry you may be, the enemy will be more tired, more hungry. Keep punching." General George S. Patton
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 7,907 Senior Member
    I am beginning to develop an alternate Hypothesis. But, I will only know for sure as things go forward.

    I think China has lost its control on NK and Kim. While China is gaining world influence on the economic and cyber front, I highly suspect that China is loosing influence at home with its growing militarization looks to start sucking up industrial resources in the south east pacific. Look at Vietnam, China has virtually no influence over Vietnam and most of Indochina. I think that NK is tired of being at the end of China's puppet string, took a look at the board, and figured a change in course would viably bring him to the world table. NK is like China and Taiwan when it comes to labor base. Think about the investment opportunities. Especially if Trump offers incentives for investing in NK to help bring them on board with the world...

    Just a hypothesis.
    I agree but I don't think it's China loosing influence as much as them loosing interest in NK.  You can only feed your poor looser cousin so long before you just try to find them another place to mooch off from.  All NK has to offer is cheap labor and China is tripping all over cheap labor internally.  SK can take advantage of the labor pool up North and China does not care how many new LG and Samsung TVs they make for the US market...
    Actually the cheap labor part is an important one. China is rapidly developing. In the first phase it's all about cheap labor and producing as much as you can for export. But that only lasts so long. They're moving into the second phase where they are trying to build up a larger middle class and encourage domestic consumption. With a middle class comes demands for higher wages, better working conditions and subesquently higher costs. Phase two is also when you start trying to find even poorer countries to offload your lowest value manufacturing to. NK is an obvious choice. In phase 1 NK acted as a distraction for us and also keeping their labor off the international market benefited China by removing competition. Now however their value as a distraction is not as valuable as their value as a source of cheap labor that China now has the wealth and economy to fully exploit.
    China is absolutely developing swiftly but I just got a briefing on them and their cheap labor pool is still pretty much larger than the aggregate of all other industrialized countries so the chances of China importing a cheaply made Korean (North or South) made TV are still on the negative side of zero.  NK becoming a new factory to the world will not move the China needle at all.  BTW have you noticed that the market for HD TVs has completely segmented so Korean brands are now building the “high end” units and the Chinese are taking over the “inexpensive” market?  I just saw a 65” Chinese 4K unit for less than $500 in Costco and quite frankly it looked amazing.  Tough to justify paying more than twice that for a Samsung or LG, specially when I know the guts are probably Chinese made anyway.
    TVs are still fairly high end manufacturing. Point is China is trying to move up market. NK is not going to start off making electronics, it will be stuff like injection molded plastic crap. Trinkets, souvenirs, etc. Stuff that is super low tech and super low margins. Ultimately you build wealth and power by as a nation not by producing the most stuff but having the power to consume the most stuff. You get to the point of being able to consume the most stuff by having as much of your population as you can get, as high up the value chain as you can get. 
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • VarmintmistVarmintmist Senior Member Posts: 6,286 Senior Member
    I think it has less to do with China wanting anything from NK than from them telling NK to "shut up and sit down. You start a butt kicking contest, we might come to your aid, after SK and the US wipes the current gov and you out". Kimmy was a tough guy who got to do whatever he wanted as long as he was living in his parents basement. Now that China really has no good use for him, and likely are as adamant as us about him not getting a nuke given that he could launch on them OR destabilize the entire region AND the people to whom they want to sell TV's to, he has to grow up. A few trips to SK and the US and he can see that maybe a little freedom for the people will get him more than a nuke. He HAS to have been told that he can go down in history as THE MOST influential leader EVER in the history of NK WHILE getting nicer stuff for himself.
    It's boring, and your lack of creativity knows no bounds.

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