What really scares me.

[bruchi]

CHINA.

5 times the population of the US and their infrastructure thus hunger for oil only grows, at some point their products will become better as it happened in Korea.

Who wanted to buy a Korean made car 20 years ago?

They will sell even more taking over a great chunk of the world's economy, people will always need stuff, price and quality are the first factors determining which they buy.

China has been for some time now "making good" with the Middle East with which they share borders, if you stand in the right spot you can lob a rock from one side to the other, at some point a pipeline to deliver huge amounts of oil cheaply and safely to China is going to happen and then get ready for huge raises affecting not only the pump stations but everything.

Time to learn Chinese?

[Wambli Ska]

CHINA.

5 times the population of the US and their infrastructure thus hunger for oil only grows, at some point their products will become better as it happened in Korea.

Who wanted to buy a Korean made car 20 years ago?

They will sell even more taking over a great chunk of the world's economy, people will always need stuff, price and quality are the first factors determining which they buy.

China has been for some time now "making good" with the Middle East with which they share borders, if you stand in the right spot you can lob a rock from one side to the other, at some point a pipeline to deliver huge amounts of oil cheaply and safely to China is going to happen and then get ready for huge raises affecting not only the pump stations but everything.

Time to learn Chinese?

I attended a briefing on China by the lead analyst of the The Economist. You have NO idea how afraid we need to be...

[ace7644]

I think this is the reason we are not fully tapping our petroleum supplies here in the US and Canada. We are sucking the middle east dry as fast as we can so when they finally run out and China's thirst for oil is at its peak they get to start taking loans from us.

[FiveSeven]

By that time we will be so broke they'll just waltz in and take it

[Buffco]

Puh-lease. We've been to China, too. Personally.

The bad news is, we owe them so much money. The good news is, we owe them so much money.

You think they're going to piss off their largest debtor?

[snake284-1]

Puh-lease. We've been to China, too. Personally.

The bad news is, we owe them so much money. The good news is, we owe them so much money.

You think they're going to piss off their largest debtor?

Depends upon which faction is in power at that time. If it's the modern seudo Capitalist Chinese, you're right. But if it's the old time "True Believer" Communist party, I'm not sure if they would give a flip how much we owe. Like Five-Seven said, "By then we'll be so broke they can just waltz in and take it."

[alphasigmookie]

Puh-lease. We've been to China, too. Personally.

The bad news is, we owe them so much money. The good news is, we owe them so much money.

You think they're going to piss off their largest debtor?

Very true. What people don't understand is that the "debt" we owe them isn't like owing the bank for your home loan, it's more like you buying a bond issued by the bank. Yes the bank owes you money, but who has the power in that relationship? You or the bank? What China has is a large portion of their national wealth tied up in a bunch of finical instruments that say we'll pay them back. If we can't pay them back or refuse to pay them back then what? They're holding a bunch of worthless paper. Bonds are defaulted on all the time and there is no legal recourse for them to recover their money if a default were to occur. It's part of the risk accepted when buying a bond.

[alphasigmookie]

[QUOTE=snake284-1;168679Like Five-Seven said, "By then we'll be so broke they can just waltz in and take it."[/QUOTE]

Take what? Even a broke America is a dangerous America. Only way to make good on their debt if we default is war. No one wins in a war on that scale and certainly China won't be making any successful incursions into this hemisphere.

[Buffco]

Depends upon which faction is in power at that time. If it's the modern seudo Capitalist Chinese, you're right. But if it's the old time "True Believer" Communist party, I'm not sure if they would give a flip how much we owe. Like Five-Seven said, "By then we'll be so broke they can just waltz in and take it."

No. The sleeping dragon (the citizenry) is stirring. I can't remember the actual number, but I think I read that China's government has to create something like 250,000 new jobs a month to keep up with the influx of country folk moving out of the rice paddies and into the cities.

China is riiiiiight where we want them.

[1hogfan83]

250,000 a month! Maybe we should elect their president!

[Wambli Ska]

Very true. What people don't understand is that the "debt" we owe them isn't like owing the bank for your home loan, it's more like you buying a bond issued by the bank. Yes the bank owes you money, but who has the power in that relationship? You or the bank? What China has is a large portion of their national wealth tied up in a bunch of finical instruments that say we'll pay them back. If we can't pay them back or refuse to pay them back then what? They're holding a bunch of worthless paper. Bonds are defaulted on all the time and there is no legal recourse for them to recover their money if a default were to occur. It's part of the risk accepted when buying a bond.

While I agree with you on principle there are definite risks and repercussions to the USA should we default on that debt. We need to borrow money on an ongoing basis and how many other countries would lend it to us at any kind of a reasonable rate should we default on our current debt? That would put us on the same level credit wise as a bunch of 3rd world countries. We would swiftly be beyond a level of debt that can be serviced.

But the problem with China is not on the money they have loaned us. I would need a few hours to really hit this from all angles but in general China has a number of consumers crawling up the food chain whose number just boggles the mind. Add to that a completely controlling government that orchestrates imports, domestic manufacturing and production of just about anything. They have killer protectionist policies and massive manufacturing resources. Our office in China has a horrible time keeping employees. There is such a HUGE demand for skilled labor that these folks are in your office almost every month demanding a raise or they'll leave!!! China's drain on resources and talent over the next few decades is just frightening. Should they manage this growth and rise intelligently they will be a force beyond our wildest reckoning. I mean imagine a country that could summon an army numbering in the hundreds of millions and the power to direct domestic resources to manufacturing weapons in numbers that we can not even comprehend. In a few decades China could march through Russia on a whim. They could just take over the PAC RIM for fun. They would be the sheer definition of unstoppable.

[alphasigmookie]

While I agree with you on principle there are definite risks and repercussions to the USA should we default on that debt. We need to borrow money on an ongoing basis and how many other countries would lend it to us at any kind of a reasonable rate should we default on our current debt? That would put us on the same level credit wise as a bunch of 3rd world countries. We would swiftly be beyond a level of debt that can be serviced.

Oh I'm definitely not saying it's a good idea, but it's always an option. There would absolutely be severe consequences (it would be hard to default ONLY on the debt owed to China, you'd have to default on all treasuries which would annihilate the financial markets), but it could be done. My main point was that the debt doesn't give China nearly the kind of leverage a lot of people think it does.

[robert38-55]

I attended a briefing on China by the lead analyst of the The Economist. You have NO idea how afraid we need to be...

Yep,most folks don't think China has ever been,or will be a threat of any kind to the USA. They were wrong then, and are still wrong believing that hogwarsh!!!!!!

Buffco wrote:

The bad news is, we owe them so much money. The good news is, we owe them so much money.

You think they're going to piss off their largest debtor?

I know this, it doesn't matter who pee's off who. When a person gets a cetain amount behind in a home loan, car loan, or what ever,doesn't the company who originally held the note either re-posess or do something to secure the unpaid balance? Sure they do. If China decides to call in their marker the question still stands: What's in it for US? the USA? Even a gambling Casino in Vegas will limit house credit to a maximum limit. Looks like to me, the best way to double your money,not only for the last 4 years but for the next 4 years comming is to fold it double and put it back in your wallet.

[Antonio]

Some examples:

We work with local fish oatmeal factories. Traditionally they were ran and owned by Peruvian investors, but then after price increases of their products due to the huge demand (Mostly from China) they either sold them or made partnership with foreign investors. Lately a Chinese investor, owner of massive pork farms in China, has been slowly buying those factories (With state-provided credit) to have a direct control of the food supply he needs. We're talking millions of dollars and soon this only guy will almost be in full control of the industry.

Some years ago along with my hunting buddy we went scrounging for his late father's belongings stored in his aunt's home. Most were assorted garage tools he used in his auto repair shop in the late '70s and early '80s, and almost all were US-manufactured, with a few European-made (Mostly German or French).
Currently my wife works at the S.A. equivalent of your Home Depot and after visiting one of their stores, I found virtually the same sets of tools & machinery my pal's dad had, and ALL of them were labeled "Made in China". Asked the wife how much of the huge amount of products they sell comes from there, and she stated "Almost all".

And last, wife wanted to trade his truck, a small 4WD Suzuki Jimny, for a brand-new, bigger one. Traditionally I would have advice her to go either Japanese, American or lastly Korean but after looking the local market under her needs and budget parameters (4 door, 4WD, manual transmission and under U$ 25,000) she finally went Chinese:

Haval H3.jpg

It's a 4-cyl Great Wall Haval H3 truck. I would have loved her to rather buy an US-made vehicle (Really Japanese, but those are usually stolen at gunpoint, thus very unsafe to drive around specially for a girl), but local prices of what she needed and could afford were above her reach, and as she stated, it only needs to run trouble-free for 4 years and carry around her and her 4 mutts safely.

Manufacture quality? Pretty much the same as a Suzuki, so for that amount of money it's pretty decent. In the '70s probably 70% of our cars were American-made; now they are probably less than 10% and shrinking.

......You're so screwed........

[snake284-1]

No. The sleeping dragon (the citizenry) is stirring. I can't remember the actual number, but I think I read that China's government has to create something like 250,000 new jobs a month to keep up with the influx of country folk moving out of the rice paddies and into the cities.

China is riiiiiight where we want them.

God, I hope and pray you're right Buffy. But you have been on several issues so it makes me feel a bit at ease. However, the Chinese are subject to swings in extremes. If the hard core Commies raise their ugly head they can stiemy progress, with a Tiananmen Square style oppressive event. That always sucks.

[bruchi]

We have to flood China with Starbucks, McDonalds, "In and Outs", Old Navy, lots of "reality TV" and Hollywood "blow 'em" fare, Lady Gaga, The National Enquirer, San Fernando Valley's main product, all of those "products" we still have a monopoly on!

Make that guy "Simon" that produces "American Idol", etc. an American citizen and park him in Beijing? He could pay our debt in 3 years top and still make a decent profit for himself with all those billions in Yuan he would pocket from all of those 900 calls by Chinese folks voting for their favorite "idol".

[snake284-1]

We have to flood China with Starbucks, McDonalds, "In and Outs", Old Navy, lots of "reality TV" and Hollywood "blow 'em" fare, Lady Gaga, The National Enquirer, San Fernando Valley's main product, all of those "products" we still have a monopoly on!

Make that guy "Simon" that produces "American Idol", etc. an American citizen and park him in Beijing? He could pay our debt in 3 years top and still make a decent profit for himself with all those billions in Yuan he would pocket from all of those 900 calls by Chinese folks voting for their favorite "idol".

I agree bruchi, anything we can sell em.

[bruchi]

I agree bruchi, anything we can sell em.

Never mind "selling" we have to get them "ADDICTED" to the "American Way".

[shush]

....decent profit for himself with all those billions in Yuan he would pocket

Renminbi you mean?

[Buffco]

Never mind "selling" we have to get them "ADDICTED" to the "American Way".

They already are, dude!!!

[FiveSeven]

Take what? Even a broke America is a dangerous America. Only way to make good on their debt if we default is war. No one wins in a war on that scale and certainly China won't be making any successful incursions into this hemisphere.

So your saying a country with the population to amass an army for every man woman and child in the USA couldn't make a incursion successfully?

[Eturn]

So your saying a country with the population to amass an army for every man woman and child in the USA couldn't make a incursion successfully?

I would say that would greatly depend on who is in the White House at the time. Getting enough troops on the beach to gain a foothold would be the most difficult part. If the person in the White House had gumption enough they wouldn't make it to our shores. Yeah yeah we could argue a million different tactics that may make it possible. But Im speaking to CW not UW.

[FiveSeven]

Just spitballing ideas to see what will stick. I find the numbers to be curious. Likely? Probably not. If it did how do you stop it. I don't wear a tinfoil hat, but its fun to muse of things sometimes.

[bruchi]

Renminbi you mean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_yuan

[bruchi]

So your saying a country with the population to amass an army for every man woman and child in the USA couldn't make a incursion successfully?

When I was in high school, a very different time then, I recall being told that there where so many people in China that you could put in a line all the 18 year old males and mow them down with a machine gun but as their population is so large before you ran down all of 18 year old males there would be more coming of age to get on line, you could never end.

As eturn mentions, issuing uniforms and guns to a fifth of the Chinese population, feeding them, never mind training them is not enough, they have to get them here and there is a huge ocean in between.

[FiveSeven]

And I would imagine Rome said the same thing about Hannibal.

[DurangoKid]

Hell the Russians were the "Boogie" man for all those post war years. I recall having to hide under a school desk to prepare for Russian bombs. Sh%t I was a dumb little kid and didn't buy that one. It was not our Army that shut them down it was our credit and spending. After it was over and we entered Russia it was a joke. They couldn't create enough energy for a good BBQ. China has now taken the bait, we will set the hook.

[FiveSeven]

Hell the Russians were the "Boogie" man for all those post war years. I recall having to hide under a school desk to prepare for Russian bombs. Sh%t I was a dumb little kid and didn't buy that one. It was not our Army that shut them down it was our credit and spending. After it was over and we entered Russia it was a joke. They couldn't create enough energy for a good BBQ. China has now taken the bait, we will set the hook.

I'd say you are comparing apples to oranges. Russian had a fairly isolationist view of communism, keeping them in a battle to stay afloat. China has, however chosen more of a free market view of communism, which could propel them into a/the new world powerhouse.