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Caliber Queens - This Is Your Thread!

horselipshorselips Senior MemberPosts: 3,628 Senior Member
Greg Ellifritz and Claude Werner, researchers for a company called Active Response Training did the legwork investigating the .22 as a defensive caliber, and published the results in a competing magazine. The numbers speak for themselves.


Caliber
% stopped after 1 shot----How many shots to stop
% that did not stop
.22 (short, long, long rifle)--- 60%
1.38
31%
.25 acp
49%
2.2
35%
.32 (acp and long)
72%
1.52
24%
.380 acp
62%
1.76
16%
9mm Luger
47%
2.45
13%
.38 spl
55%
1.87
17%
.357 magnum
61%
1.7
9%
.40 S&W
52%
2.36
13%
.45 acp
51%
2.08
14%


He came to some interesting conclusions, including crediting some of the amazing results earned by .22 caliber to the psychological damage done to an attacker, in other words, a "psychological stop." While the physical damage is usually far less than that that inflicted by a large centerfire round, just being shot with anything apparently has a profound effect. I know it would on me.

Claude Werner contributed his findings that in his lifetime study of defensive gun use, he can find no instance of an armed citizen being killed by an attacker after the attacker had taken at least one .22 round. However, Mr. Werner noted that there are psychological differences at play in the mind of a criminal when confronted by police and civilians. When engaging the police, a criminal will fight harder and longer - he cannot break off the action and just flee - he knows the police will pursue until he's caught or killed. A civilian just wants it all over and a criminal knows that if he flees he will not be pursued - there are no consequences to giving up and running away, so a hit from a .22 often gets the job done. Undoubtedly, this had a skewing effect on the results for common police calibers like 9mm and .40 S&W, since police shootings were heavily represented in those calibers, and the data from .22 shootings were almost all from civilian encounters.

The third column above reports that although the criminal was not incapacitated by any number of hits, the criminal did indeed flee, but at least was able to do so, and had he been of a mind to, could conceivably have pressed his attack.

Mr. Ellifritz concludes that while his preference is to carry a larger caliber, a .22 will still serve you well. I just wish his statistics included results from .22WMR. Oh well, it's not a perfect world.
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Replies

  • BAMAAKBAMAAK Senior Member Posts: 4,484 Senior Member
    I read this a while ago on ConcealedCarry.net. Very interesting. Here is a link to the whole article. Greg Ellifritz was a cop and collected data for a long time on this.

    http://www.usconcealedcarry.net/2012/07/17/choosing-best-caliber-concealed-carry/
    "He only earns his freedom and his life Who takes them every day by storm."

    -- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German writer and politician
  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 9,465 Senior Member
    I'm kinda curious about the raw data used.

    Figure any semi-talented shooter with a duty-sized auto is going to be delivering his hits in pairs or more. I wonder how many of the first shots of those pairs hit the sternum, filled the chest cavity with bone fragments, shredded the aorta and vena cava, and parted the spinal column, but were not termed a "one shot stop" simply because a second bullet came to the party before gravity had a chance to bring the already-dead felon to the ground. Look at the stats for 9mm, .40, and .45 - common fodder for double-tapping duty rounds - and you'll see they're virtually identical.

    Now look at the stats for .38 and .357. Absolutely NO reason they should be better than a 9mm - essentially the same diameter, bullet weights, and the velocities are not radically different. Only thing is that it's going to take the average non-Jerry Miculek operator longer to deliver a second round from a DA wheelie, so I'm thinking they get a boost to their stats because the operator may have more time to perceive a second round is not needed.

    I imagine a similar process at work for the mouse guns - tiny weapons, short sight radius, little grips. . .hard to aim and hard to recover rapidly from shots. More time to comprehend that one shot did the job.

    No formal training that I know of teaches the practice of "shoot once and analyze the result", so I tend to think this brings down the stats for the more "professional" calibers being deployed by folks who have that training.
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
  • EliEli Senior Member Posts: 3,074 Senior Member
    horselips wrote: »
    I just wish his statistics included results from .22WMR. Oh well, it's not a perfect world.


    Trust me, after reading that, the folks that think you're fine for carrying an NAA Mini still think that. The folks that think that that's just about the dumbest carry gun ever, still think that as well.

    The bottom line is this, none of us are in your shoes, if you're comfortable with that little NAA, more power to ya.
  • ZeeZee Senior Member Posts: 27,678 Senior Member
    "Why did you shoot the poor deceased bad guy 11 times?!"

    "Because 10 wasn't enough and 12 would have been too many."
    "To Hell with efficiency, it's performance we want!" - Elmer Keith
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Hey, that study is flawed...it adds up to way over 100% :jester:
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • BufordBuford Senior Member Posts: 6,721 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Hey, that study is flawed...it adds up to way over 100% :jester:

    It's that thing called fuzzy math.
    Just look at the flowers Lizzie, just look at the flowers.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,919 Senior Member
    I've looked up his article and his blog where he discusses the topic.....

    1. He doesn't say what constitutes a "one shot stop." Marshall and Sanow only used shots to the torso, and incapacitation was stopping the fight after 5 seconds and/or not moving more than 15 feet. Looking at the article, the author may have allowed head shots to be included. Those generally have a higher success rate than torso hits, and shooters of "mouse guns" may be more likely to aim for the head knowing what their cartridges can't do. Be that as it may, we don't know what constitutes a "stop." Was it an immediate cessation of activities, or did the shooter shoot and run? Both could be counted as one shot stops. Could be the guy just ran away.
    2. He only used 2,000 shootings. That's pretty small compared to the other data that's out there, and we don't know how many instances were recorded for each caliber, nor do we know the variances that tell us not only the mean number of one stop shots and mean number of shots to stop (which he reports) but will also give us a metric of what sort of variability there is. .22 might only need 1.38 shots to stop and .45 ACP needs 2.08 shots to stop, but what if that .22 has taken a range of 1 to 11 shots and the .45 has ranged from to 5 shots?
    3. The number of shots fired may also be due to the users involved and their training proficiency. The 9mm, .40, and .45 are common police duty calibers. We also know from other studies that in general, it takes police twice as many shots/hits to subdue an aggressor as it does for an armed citizen (that in and of itself speaks to a training disparity and somethings departments need to change.) The author in his own blog states that he thinks that the difference between police and armed citizen use and the nature of their gunfights probably skews the data in favor of the .22 and away from the 9mm/.40/.45.
    4. Platform affects the number of shots fired. If someone's firing a derringer they can't put as many rounds into the target as they can a Glock, due to sights, capacity, ease of manipulation, and other factors. In his blog, the author points out that if you're using a slow firing handgun (say a NAA mini-revolver) you're going to put fewer rounds into the target in a time frame than I can with a 1911. Assuming that it takes a certain amount of time for a felon to realize they've been hit and break off the attack or to simply collapse, I'll have put more rounds into the target than the NAA shooter, and will have a higher number of rounds to affect the stop. If either of us had fired only one shot, the felon might have still stopped, but because I'm firing not until I think the target has lost interest, but until HE has lost interest, I've sent in some unintended but effective "insurance" shots.
    5. Most criminals tend to flee when hit by an armed citizen's bullet and are more likely to get into a shootout with police (this is due to the nature of the crimes they commit.) It's darned hard to put multiple rounds into a target if the target leaves.
    6. The failure rate of .22 is 31%. That's 2 to 3 times the rate of standard service cartridges. That means that in 31% of all shootings, the criminal hit with a .22 could have pressed on with the attack. In fact, the author thinks that most of the stops done by a .22 are psychological in nature. The perp gets hit and decides that it's just not worth pressing the attack. Therefore, the armed citizen could still be in danger, if the bad guy wants to keep going.

    Interestingly enough (or not), the author prefers to carry something bigger than a .22 when he can.

    Author's blog where he discusses some points:
    http://www.activeresponsetraining.net/using-the-22-for-self-defense
    I'm just here for snark.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    I think I'll wait for mythbusters.
  • shootershooter Senior Member Posts: 1,186 Senior Member
    I did a book report in High School (class of 63) on a very entertaining book. It was "How to Lie with Statistics" by Darrell Huff.
    It is a very entertaining read and is a free download in PDF format here:

    http://archive.org/details/HowToLieWithStatistics
    There's no such thing as having too much ammo, unless you're on fire or trying to swim!
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,919 Senior Member
    As a biologist I know once said, "For some, statistics are like a light post is to a drunk. It's there for support, not illumination."
    I'm just here for snark.
  • BigDanSBigDanS Senior Member Posts: 6,992 Senior Member
    Caliber
    % stopped after 1 shot----How many shots to stop
    % that did not stop
    .22 (short, long, long rifle)--- 60%
    1.38
    31%
    .25 acp
    49%
    2.2
    35%
    .32 (acp and long)
    72%
    1.52
    24%
    .380 acp
    62%
    1.76
    16%
    9mm Luger
    47%
    2.45
    13%
    .38 spl
    55%
    1.87
    17%
    .357 magnum
    61%
    1.7
    9%
    .40 S&W
    52%
    2.36
    13%
    .45 acp
    51%
    2.08
    14%


    In the .32 ACP and Long the numbers are very odd. 72% stopped with 1 shot, number of shots to stop 1.52 and 24% DID NOT STOP. So 72% plus 24% is 96%. The other 4% must have taken a lot of shots to stop !

    If one data point is questionable, then so is the whole study.

    D
    "A patriot is mocked, scorned and hated; yet when his cause succeeds, all men will join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot." Mark Twain
    Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.... now who's bringing the hot wings? :jester:
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    As a biologist I know once said, "For some, statistics are like a light post is to a drunk. It's there for support, not illumination."

    Statistics are like facts; once you have them, you can distort them any way you please.

    I have no idea what the purpose of that table is for or what it is supposed to prove. Anyway, the threat decides how many times they get shot. If they give up or retreat after getting hit once or twice, then that's how many shots it took to stop the attack. If it took a full magazine or cylinder out of whatever to stop them, then that's how many shots it took to stop the attack. And those statistics don't seem to include statistics for attackers on mind altering drugs. Someone cranked up to the max on PCP or meth might be just a little more difficult to stop.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

    "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

    The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed, and the phrase is often attributed to Twain himself."
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    knitepoet wrote: »
    edited again to add: If I could find a way to CCW a 12ga with a 50 Beowulf AR under it (or vice versa) I would

    I'd carry an M1919-A1 MG and 10 extra belts, but it would make me walk funny. Maybe an M-60 and 4 extra boxes of linked ammo would be a little more easier to carry. An M-249 and 4 extra boxes of ammo would be even more better(lighter). Still too heavy. So it's a G-26 and 2 extra G-17 magazines(they fit, just protrude a little out of the grip). I may never, never, ever need the extra magazines, but I'd rather have and not need, than need and not have. It's that hope for the best, but prepare for the worst thing.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • KSU FirefighterKSU Firefighter Senior Member Posts: 3,249 Senior Member
    Too bad there is no such thing as a "compact" Ma-Deuce!
    The fire service needs a "culture of extinguishment not safety" Ray McCormack FDNY
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    knitepoet wrote: »
    Even if there was, how much ammo could you carry? GEEZ, what does 1 round of 50BMG weigh? 3/4 pound or so??? :yikes:
    Just the projectile's in the 1.5-2oz range

    edited to add:









    HEY TENNMIKE.... Up for an EZ-PZ project?

    Throw a round of BMG ammo on a scale for me, please? OR, if you don't have a scale that reads ounces, weigh an empty, and give us a ballpark powder charge and bullet weight (in grains, grams or whatever other unit your scale uses.
    THANK YOU!

    Case
    849 grains
    Bullet
    649 grains
    Powder charge
    230 grains
    ________________________
    1728 grains or 3.9497 ounces

    If you drop one point down on your bare foot, it will make a nice bruise.

    I had to weigh individual components; my electronic and beam scales only go to 1000 grains max.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • Ranch13Ranch13 Senior Member Posts: 820 Senior Member
    Always keep in mind the Smith and Wesson #1 revolver in 22 short was wildly popular in the 1860's as a defensive handgun..
  • ZeeZee Senior Member Posts: 27,678 Senior Member
    Statistics anyone?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMQdtyot38s

    :jester:
    "To Hell with efficiency, it's performance we want!" - Elmer Keith
  • BAMAAKBAMAAK Senior Member Posts: 4,484 Senior Member
    Didn't MOSAD (sp?) carry 22s at one point? They are probably a better shot then most though :guns:
    "He only earns his freedom and his life Who takes them every day by storm."

    -- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German writer and politician
  • EliEli Senior Member Posts: 3,074 Senior Member
    BAMAAK wrote: »
    Didn't MOSAD (sp?) carry 22s at one point? They are probably a better shot then most though :guns:


    There's also a huge difference between stopping someone who is in the process of killing you, and walking up behind someone and putting several suppressed rounds into the back of their skull.

    Killing and stopping are generally not even close to being the same thing......although they do sometimes lead to the same end result.
  • BAMAAKBAMAAK Senior Member Posts: 4,484 Senior Member
    Eli wrote: »
    There's also a huge difference between stopping someone who is in the process of killing you, and walking up behind someone and putting several suppressed rounds into the back of their skull.

    Killing and stopping are generally not even close to being the same thing......although they do sometimes lead to the same end result.

    So what they carried a second gun for defensive purposes?
    "He only earns his freedom and his life Who takes them every day by storm."

    -- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German writer and politician
  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 9,465 Senior Member
    Too bad there is no such thing as a "compact" Ma-Deuce!

    Au Contraire! The M2 A/N was the short barreled aircraft version. Got the weight down to about 60 pounds for your ankle holsters.
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
  • mpotucekmpotucek New Member Posts: 21 New Member
    The Mossad would empty whole magazines, it's hardly a one shot stop, that and they have three or four bad boys backing them up with SMGs
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,919 Senior Member
    Funnier when you look at what the author had to say elsewhere and he points out that the take away you want to take away is not the point that you need to take away....
    I'm just here for snark.
  • NomadacNomadac Senior Member Posts: 902 Senior Member
    According to Statistics if you put one foot in a fire and the other foot on a block of ice on the average you will be comfortable. You can prove anything with statistics, you just have to play with the numbers.
  • BufordBuford Senior Member Posts: 6,721 Senior Member
    Eli wrote: »

    The bottom line is this, none of us are in your shoes, if you're comfortable with that little NAA, more power to ya.

    I carry two of them that gives me a 44.

    HPIM0615.jpg
    Just look at the flowers Lizzie, just look at the flowers.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Cool :guns:

    What is the top revolver?
    Buford wrote: »
    I carry two of them that gives me a 44.

    HPIM0615.jpg
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • BufordBuford Senior Member Posts: 6,721 Senior Member
    It's a 7 shot 22 Hopkins and Allen.
    Just look at the flowers Lizzie, just look at the flowers.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,429 Senior Member
    Too bad there is no such thing as a "compact" Ma-Deuce!

    I want to mount two under my hood and one in the rear of my Suburban. Ain't no way Mr. BG is getting past Ma.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,429 Senior Member
    Buford wrote: »
    I carry two of them that gives me a 44.

    HPIM0615.jpg

    LOL!!! Well then there's hope for Obummer and Biden yet. Each of them has a 75 IQ so that means together they're a genius, LOL!!!
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
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