This is how it is going to happen, WWIII

centermass556centermass556 Senior MemberPosts: 3,508 Senior Member
So it came to me this morning as I was looking at some stuff....

The army is going to finish its draw down to 490K (we are 40,000 away). The Navy is almost finished its force shapping at 320K. Navy Recruiting comercials are starting to reappear. The Airforce is nearly there and so are the Mairines.

The Chinese now have a navy with a carrier. A Nvay with a carrier has force projection.

So this Syria thing is going to drag out. It will start with limited ground involvement (see Vietnam foot notes). We we are almost at the lowest we have to be for sequestration, Russia is going to suck us full fold into Syria. Turkey will leave NATO and side with Russia hoping for a Win and expanding back out to the Automan empire. Saudi and North Africa fear this and come in as a third party, the UAL.

When we are hip deep in Syria around March next year, China will take Taiwan...and there will be nothing we can do to stop it.
"To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
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Replies

  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    Good scenario. We are drawn down to way too low levels on troops and ships. It would be easy to get overextended fast.

    Read that the military pay raise was supposed to be 1.8% but Obama had that cut to 0.8%. Yep, the Big Ozero has respect for the military and has your back. NOT!

    One point about the Chinese aircraft carrier, and aircraft carriers in general. They are huge floating self propelled targets for fast attack subs. If China were to use their one and only carrier on an attack on Taiwan, it could soon be reef material. With a sub, there's no telling for sure who fired the torpedoes, even if there are only a few countries that have them. They might highly suspect us, but couldn't prove it short of damaging it to the point that it had to surface to abandon ship.
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,263 Senior Member
    I'm pretty sure there are still a few cold war era US sailors who remember how to play navy games like we used to with the Russians- - - -ones the Chinese don't even suspect exist- - - -let alone know how to deal with. Their brand new deepwater sailors will need Maalox by the gallon to deal with the heartburn a good game of chicken out of sight of any witnesses can produce!
    Jerry
    Hide and wail in terror, Eloi- - - -We Morlocks are on the hunt!
    ASK-HOLE Someone who asks for advice and always does something opposite
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    Teach wrote: »
    I'm pretty sure there are still a few cold war era US sailors who remember how to play navy games like we used to with the Russians- - - -ones the Chinese don't even suspect exist- - - -let alone know how to deal with. Their brand new deepwater sailors will need Maalox by the gallon to deal with the heartburn a good game of chicken out of sight of any witnesses can produce!
    Jerry

    Most especially when they are launching or recovering aircraft. Or 'crossing the T' with a carrier group when an OPFOR fleet is underway. Fun stuff!
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,587 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    Read that the military pay raise was supposed to be 1.8% but Obama had that cut to 0.8%. Yep, the Big Ozero has respect for the military and has your back. NOT!

    Hey at least they got an increase. No other federal employees on the GS system have received a COL increase since 2010. Of course they all are still getting grade and step increases.

    As for the situation in Syria I don't see any good options. If we do nothing, especially after specifically saying that there will be consequences for using chemical weapons we really diminish whatever remaining credibility we still had as the global dominant force and basically give the green light for others to use similar tactics in the future. If we do something we risk getting sucked into a broader conflict involving Iran and possibly even Russia at least by proxy. Furthermore I don't see any potential positive outcomes in Syria given that the current dictator sucks and is allied with Hezbollah but the opposition might be just as bad if not worse with potential ties to Al Qaeda. The best case scenario in Syria may in fact be the bloody stalemate that currently exists. Either way it certainly will be interesting to watch the debate in congress this week. My guess is that they'll probably reject the use of force which will give Obama an out, but make us look even weaker than we already do. While I personally don't see that as a bad thing given that my preferred long term path is a greater retreat from global military leadership, I'd still rather us at least look strong even if we no longer are.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • Fat BillyFat Billy Senior Member Posts: 1,813 Senior Member
    Do you remember what 300 Greeks did to 100,000 Arabs a few years back? :yesno: Later,
    Fat Billy

    Recoil is how you know primer ignition is complete.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    Persians are not Arabs. Different genetic lineage. That's part of the reason the Iran-Iraq war was tolerated for so long: it wasn't Arabs fighting Arabs.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    Hey at least they got an increase. No other federal employees on the GS system have received a COL increase since 2010. Of course they all are still getting grade and step increases.

    And most of those people of which you speak make a lot more base pay than the grunt on the front lines. And none of those front line grunts get overtime pay if the battle goes longer than anticipated. No overtime for over 8 hours work in a day. And even in the barracks or aboard ship, the conditions are far inferior to the layouts in the air conditioned offices and cubicles the ones of which you speak of inhabit. Tell me, when was the last time you shared a 30x30x8 foot living space with 71 other people? Lots of service men and women are making below poverty level if a family is involved, and that is unacceptable and unconscionable.
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    "But they get their uniforms and clothes paid for, get to live in a barracks, AND they get combat pay!"

    [said in best Frank Burns voice.../]
    Overkill is underrated.
  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,508 Senior Member
    Fat Billy wrote: »
    Do you remember what 300 Greeks did to 100,000 Arabs a few years back? :yesno: Later,

    Persian....The Army was Persian


    Nevermind Bream got it....
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    We won't go into the fact that it was more than 300 Greeks, either...
    Overkill is underrated.
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,587 Senior Member
    We won't go into the fact that it was more than 300 Greeks, either...

    No it wasn't! I saw the movie, there were exactly 300. Are you calling Frank Miller a lair?
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,263 Senior Member
    "Hey, Assad- - - - -see that big smoking hole that used to be Tehran? Straighten up your act, or you're the next one on the target list!"

    That's the way to solve several problems all at once!
    Jerry
    Hide and wail in terror, Eloi- - - -We Morlocks are on the hunt!
    ASK-HOLE Someone who asks for advice and always does something opposite
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 21,803 Senior Member
    Oh you guys, LOLOLOL!!!


    Actually, I agree with Obama on this. We should have struck them. But notice the key operative words here, we should have struck them, as in already. We should have whacked them good and tried to blow up the stores of Chemical Weapons, that being contingent on whether we knew where they were. But that should have been done when we found out they did it. Now they have the upper hand in that they suspect it. Obammy and the libtards hesitated and lost their edge.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 21,803 Senior Member
    Teach wrote: »
    "Hey, Assad- - - - -see that big smoking hole that used to be Tehran? Straighten up your act, or you're the next one on the target list!"

    That's the way to solve several problems all at once!
    Jerry

    The problem with that is, there's not enough "Balls" in the whole city of Washington DC to do that, especially of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz aren't in town.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    "But they get their uniforms and clothes paid for, get to live in a barracks, AND they get combat pay!"

    [said in best Frank Burns voice.../]

    BULL MANURE! My first month's pay went to pay for my first issue of uniforms. If I had to get new uniforms, the cost of them came out of my pay. We weren't issued anything free, EVER! I got more than my share of dress blues and dress whites torn up on shore patrol duty. Probably why more than a few jackholes sported some mighty nice pop knots on their noggins and bruises of epic proportion on various and sundry parts of their anatomy for ruining one of my uniforms in a dust-up in a bar. Dress blues jumper was $40 and a dress white was $35. Pants were same price. And I was making $360/month BEFORE TAXES! :silly:

    Living aboard ship is like being stuffed in a sardine can. Subs are worse. Food will keep you from starving, but nothing to write home about. Wasn't the cook's fault; they did the best they could with what they had to work with, and it wasn't all that great. Anything fresh was used within the first two weeks; after that it was either canned or frozen. The little black specks in the bread were the slow weevils. :roll2: Powdered eggs, powdered potatoes, powdered milk, and if they'd have had powdered water, they'd have issued that to us, too. Bug juice and coffee were the only safe thing to drink; the water was O.K. for washing, but otherwise suspect. The coffee was always scalding hot, and nothing harmful could live in the bug juice.

    I wouldn't trade that time for anything, and wouldn't do it over for a 4-star Admiral's pay, either. Not in peacetime, anyway. Them what ain't been there, done that, got no idea. Probably a good thing, too, or recruiting would otherwise be a lot harder for the Navy! :rotflmao: HAZE GRAY AND UNDERWAY! :tooth::usa:
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,508 Senior Member
    What would an E-8 be considered in the managment world...

    I am expected to manage/lead all aspects of training, professional growth, and the welfare of anywhere from 50-130 people. I have four lower level supervisors (Platoon Sergeants) that work for me. At this tier in the organization I only have two bosses directly over me...

    that is just a snap shot...

    I know that folks with my experience and knowledge get paid about 120K/year in the civilian world...
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    As an E-8 you'd be in the upper middle management level. Or head of a division in a medium corporation. Definitely in the pay range you suggested.
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,508 Senior Member
    In that case, I make $4,469 before taxes at base pay. After deductions, I bring home ~$3,950. That comes out to somewhere around ~$47,500 a year....
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • BufordBuford Senior Member Posts: 6,651 Senior Member
    It drives me nuts to hear people yapping about how good the military has it.
    Just look at the flowers Lizzie, just look at the flowers.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    Buford wrote: »
    It drives me nuts to hear people yapping about how good the military has it.
    How many who say that have served? I haven't, but I'll admit to putting forth blatantly sarcastic answers to poke fun of some of the notions people have.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,508 Senior Member
    You know...I will admit that I might not have it good, sure as hell not as good as my friends that work in the private sector now. But, I have it a lot better than some other folks. I have security in knowing that each month I will get enough money to put three squares on the plates of my family and I can take them to a hospital anywhere in the country and they will be provided for. That is worth everything I have done and everything I will ever do.

    I don't get to have a new car every three years, I don't have a gun fund that I can boast about...Some of that is self inflicted (4 kids), some of it is not. I do remember working two jobs as a young E-5 so that I could take my family on vacation during the year and so that Christmas would be more than a tree and budget Ham. But, now I have daughter going to the University of Goergia half on my GI bill, and the other half on my dime. She can't tell you about a single father daughter dance. She can't tell you how I took pictures of her at homecoming. I was blessed to be there for her Sr Prom. But she can look you in the eye with pride and tell you her daddy is a Soldier. My Sons have legoes for days, and bikes, and other toys that boys like. My youngest daughter has the clothes she likes...they are not the name brand from the mall, but she is happy. But the boys can't tell you about early summer fishing with dad or learning to shoot on the Farm. My daughter can't tell you about Tea parties and me watching her recitles. My youngest son can tell you about how until he was 4 , he thought I lived at the Airfield/Airport. My Daughter can tell you about arts and crafts were making wlecome home signs for dad and sending him home made cards with pictures....

    We do get by a little better than a few folks out there. No employer is going to give you extra money to live in a house off the "Company Campus"...I do get a housing allowance to live off post. I get an $250 a month to eat because I no longer eat at the chow hall....but when I go to the field, that $250 is taken away...No employer will give me $500 a year to buy new work clothes...the Army gives $500 a year on our anniversary to buy new uniforms...

    We do get by a little better than most folks...But we (most of us) earn every last cent of it..
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,985 Senior Member
    Buford wrote: »
    It drives me nuts to hear people yapping about how good the military has it.

    Yep, it's not all FTA ...Fun Travel and Adventure or Fudge the Army depending on your perspective.

    Their pay and benefits are much better than ever before, I can tell you that. The 70s and 80s sucked on military pay.

    You give up a lot when you raise your right hand and sign the dotted line, they got you by the short hairs. More than anyone who hasn't ever been in can possibly know.

    Hard on wife and kids to get moved around so much, yanked from one location to the next. There are plenty of good times to go with the bad times and it usually all evens out in the long run.

    I don't have many regrets about my Army time and glad I stuck it out to retirement. :usa::usa::usa::usa:
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,985 Senior Member
    I remember plenty of talk about "No More Task Force Smith's" from generals referring to that ill equipped/trained/under manned task force they sent to Korea from Japan. They told them the Chinese would run at the sight of American soldiers......

    Point is they were saying we will never let our Army get that small again........well they have done a pretty good job of not letting that happen again, especially in the Cold War, now they are getting ignorant again (Politicians).

    I knew they were full of crap when all that talk about us fighting two (big) wars on two fronts simultaneously surfaced and can't believe the generals spouting that baloney before Congress could keep a straight face. I reckon they were told to publicly support the C in C or else.

    Now, as we know from news releases many divisions are losing a combat brigade, but most of the tanks/equipment/ combat soldiers are going to other battalions/brigades. What they are mostly losing is HQ/ elements and all the personnel and tiers of their staffs like S-1, 2, 3 and 4s, support units will be gone and they are saying "Combat Power" will be about the same.

    I dunno how it will all shake out, but it's getting mighty slim for comfort if you ask me.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,985 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    i think the Chinese carrier will suffer a mysterious catastrophic hull failure that will send it to the bottom of the Ocean. Like Jerry said. A lot of our most powerful stuff can not bee seen and they know it could be right off their shores tonight...

    How on Earth did they get an Aircraft Carrier that is run on rice? Or is there 10,000 China-men with oars making it go :tooth:
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • RazorbackerRazorbacker Senior Member Posts: 4,646 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »

    I dunno how it will all shake out, but it's getting mighty slim for comfort if you ask me.

    And slim just left town. Regarding your post about a carrier running on rice, I don't think it's wise to underestimate these people. Remember they've either stolen or bought from Clinton/Gore much of our technology.
    Taiwan is a real sticking point for them and seen as a loss of face. Pulling a Military move on Taiwan, would be a stupid thing to do against their, by far, largest trading partner, the USA I mean.
    But the Oriental mindset is an inscrutable thing and history is littered with empires acting against their own best self interest.
    Teach your children to love guns, they'll never be able to afford drugs
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,786 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    i think the Chinese carrier will suffer a mysterious catastrophic hull failure that will send it to the bottom of the Ocean. Like Jerry said. A lot of our most powerful stuff can not bee seen and they know it could be right off their shores tonight...

    Don't know if they play the game the same as we do, but when I was in the canoe club, when we were with a carrier task force there was usually at least one fast attack hanging with us. Nothing better to find a submarine than another submarine. If a sub is sneaking around below a thermocline, another sub can just go below it and sniff them out. They could run, but they couldn't hide! And from all I've read over the years, the subs the Chinese have are not all that quiet; their diesel boats are, but they have to surface sometime to recharge batteries.
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 6,945 Senior Member
    "Automan empire"? Seriously?:drool:
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
  • samzheresamzhere Banned Posts: 10,923 Senior Member
    center, your scenario is an interesting one but I don't think it's a WW3 potential. We've been on the brink of that several times (closest maybe was the Cuban missile crisis, where the US had to persuade the USSR that Kennedy really did mean business and wasn't blowing steam).

    I don't see WW3 but I do see the possibility of the US losing all its influence in the Middle East as a result of Obama's incompetence. Look at the debacle caused by Carter's indecisive actions (or non-actions).

    I also really, really don't see troops on the ground in Syria, no way. Regardless of Obama's incompetence he does have a brain somewhere and he's not going to commit ground troops in that affair.

    I do however see failure due to indecision and missed chances, blunders due to the deadly combo of incompetence and arrogance. Iraq may drop into the radical column despite our investments there -- I'd figure that a tossup still, just because the people there have seen a reasonable peace and some good freedoms restored -- the average Iraqi is like anybody else, just wanting a flatscreen TV and car and some peace and quiet. Iraqis are also fairly well educated and not committed to radical Islam either, lots more secular than many other countries there. So I'm kinda optimistic about Iraq staying clean -- not gonna bet the farm on it, just modestly optimistic. I won't lose any sleep if Iraq goes under, of course, but maybe just maybe they'll stay afloat.

    Afghanistan on the other hand is a lost graveyard and total disaster. It's a classic example of a general populace that really doesn't want decent amenities (unlike Iraq) and the whole damn place will sink into a swamp of murder. Good riddance.

    I've been up and down regarding military intervention in Syria (air only, no troops, missiles and drones, etc) and I've been legitimately undecided. But the more I've seen of this mess, the more I'm persuaded that a military strike is a bad idea. We should just provide lots of humanitarian aid to the innocent refugees and covertly perhaps work to bring Assad down, although I'm not too keen on that either.

    WW3? No. But continuing failure of US ventures and decreasing influence of the USA in the Middle East? Absolutely.

    Outside of a dog, a book is a man’s best friend. Inside of a dog, it’s too dark to read. - Groucho Marx
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,587 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    As an E-8 you'd be in the upper middle management level. Or head of a division in a medium corporation. Definitely in the pay range you suggested.

    Looking at the military pay scale looks like just about any other private sector hierarchical organization. Grunts at the bottom make crap. Officers (management) start at ok salaries and go up to fairly comfortable middle class or even upper middle class levels. Enlisted men stuck with a glass ceiling stuck at an ok, but not great level of pay even at the top levels. Was similar to my first job. Skilled technicians with no education but lots of experience topped out in the $50k range. Engineers with a degree and no experience started at a similar level but went up into the $100k+ range by mid/late career.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • 5280 shooter II5280 shooter II Senior Member Posts: 3,923 Senior Member
    I wouldn't worry too much.........we can always round up a few high schools kids out of Colorado.........:tooth:
    God show's mercy on drunks and dumb animals.........two outa three ain't a bad score!
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