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Round n Round She Blows, Where She Will Land Nobody Knows

Big ChiefBig Chief Senior MemberPosts: 32,995 Senior Member
TS Erika, that is. Spaghetti models are literally all over the map and changed to a more westward direction than earlier. So FLA will get impacted for now with the latest predictions. It is weak and landfall and mountains in the islands make weaken it and it could fall apart OR if could pick up some intensity after that.

I will say some common sense preparedness is smart if you live where it may impact you, but the way the Weather Channel hypes it as the Sky Is Falling Chicken Little has put some folks on edge probably a lot more than they should be, at this time.

Local cable weather forecasters/meteorologist seem to be more level headed and calm on their predictions.

So it could fizzle out, stay a TS or even turn into a Hurricane and exactly where it will make landfall or go more in the Atlantic or even the Gulf can't be determined yet.

I remember Hurricane Donna back in 1960 living in Fort Myers FLA as a little boy quite well.
It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
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Replies

  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    They said they will be able to make mo better, mo exact predictions Saturday. Parts of FLA have been saturated and don't need any more heavy rainfall right now.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,711 Senior Member
    Keep your head above water.
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,670 Senior Member
    Got to test run my generator.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,395 Senior Member
    Got to test run my generator.

    That's a good idea now just in case. :up:

    Probably wouldn't be a bad idea to get a case or two of bottled water, just in case. If the storm misses you, then you can just drink it. And some paper plates and plastic knives, forks, and spoons. No dishes to wash!
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,711 Senior Member
    I see the track is now slightly west, looks like my sister will get hit with it now.
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,903 Senior Member
    Got to test run my generator.

    Did that not long ago, hopefully do not need it as I know it runs under a load, have gas for it, but there is half a pallet of floor tile sitting in front of it that would need to be restacked if I need the generator.
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • woodsrunnerwoodsrunner Senior Member Posts: 2,725 Senior Member
    I know exactly where it will make landfall.....between Panama City Beach and Grayton Beach on Florida's Gulf Coast! How do I know this? Simple.....

    Had my annual supply of Creek Indian Corn planted in north-central Florida near Gainesville. Early spring drought wiped it out.
    Had my annual supply of Heirloom Cracker Cow White Corn planted about 14 miles north of the Indian Corn. The drought wiped it out, too.
    Had my annual supply of Mountain Heirloom Corn planted up home in a creek bottom field near Hiawassee, Georgia. Windstorm, 70MPH winds, wiped it out.
    HAVE a back-up of all but the Mountain Corn planted near Chipley, Florida. Its beautiful, and will be ready to combine in less than two weeks! Where else can the storm go :silly:!

    EDIT: Hey Big Chief! I remember Donna too! Quite Well Do I Remember Donna! That was my first experience with a hurricane. And my first experience at being seasick, too!
  • FisheadgibFisheadgib Senior Member Posts: 5,797 Senior Member
    I'm sure it won't hit here because the power company just trimmed the branches away from the power lines in front of my house yesterday. I'm still going to pick up some gas for my generator just in case.
    snake284 wrote: »
    For my point of view, cpj is a lot like me
    .
  • jaywaptijaywapti Senior Member Posts: 4,958 Senior Member
    Were ready, all I have to do is tie the boats down. Living in Miami from 1939 - 1970 I went thru all of them, none were fun , the worst was 1947, I lived in Little River, we had 2' of water in the house and some unwanted guests, snakes, some coons and a few gators. In 1950 I lived on Miami Beach, the surge swept across the island, it took the city a week to clear the sand off Collins Ave. in places it was 3' - 4' high.

    JAY
    THE DEFINITION OF GUN CONTROL IS HITTING THE TARGET WITH YOUR FIRST SHOT
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,395 Senior Member
    I know exactly where it will make landfall.....between Panama City Beach and Grayton Beach on Florida's Gulf Coast! How do I know this? Simple.....

    Had my annual supply of Creek Indian Corn planted in north-central Florida near Gainesville. Early spring drought wiped it out.
    Had my annual supply of Heirloom Cracker Cow White Corn planted about 14 miles north of the Indian Corn. The drought wiped it out, too.
    Had my annual supply of Mountain Heirloom Corn planted up home in a creek bottom field near Hiawassee, Georgia. Windstorm, 70MPH winds, wiped it out.
    HAVE a back-up of all but the Mountain Corn planted near Chipley, Florida. Its beautiful, and will be ready to combine in less than two weeks! Where else can the storm go :silly:!

    EDIT: Hey Big Chief! I remember Donna too! Quite Well Do I Remember Donna! That was my first experience with a hurricane. And my first experience at being seasick, too!

    Glad you had backup for the corn crop! Hope this one misses FL completely and turns East and just spins itself out.

    Regarding hurricanes and being aboard ship in one, that is an experience that money can't buy! Did a three day thrill ride off the NC coast in the '70s in a good one. Didn't get seasick, but didn't get any sleep, either. Being in that thing was the Captain's fault; he was in a hurry to get back to Newport, RI after two fun filled weeks at the Gitmo target range. Over one wave and the next one breaking over the bow for three days. Yay............ Cooks couldn't cook so we had WWII vintage C-rats.

    Rich, did you have fun going to the head to do your bidness? :rotflmao: The division head for my berthing compartment was only 75 feet from the bow; we could have used seat belts to keep us in contact with the seat! :roll2:
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    I have been through several or the outlaying bands, but Donna sticks in my mind the most. I was about 7 years old. Old man boarded up the windows with plywood and braces got some storm lamps and we just rode it out like most everybody did back then. Maybe some folks on the beaches moved inland.

    Of course, FLA population was a lot more sparse back then too.

    Eye was cool, we went out looked and drove around then back inside for the rest to pass. Pine-needles stuck in telephone poles like darts.

    It hooked through FLA and then across the state in a northerly direction and even hit New England. Of course, I don't remember any news from back then except locally that it was coming.

    This shows its path
    http://www.hurricanescience.org/history/storms/1960s/donna/

    News was saying GW set up a program to help predict and investigate hurricanes/tropical storms which has gotten much better since. Better satellites, sensors in the water and now they are using or will use drones flying all around and in them soon collecting real-time data. Meteorologist said the cone of predictability is 40% better than even when Katrina hit.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • FisheadgibFisheadgib Senior Member Posts: 5,797 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Meteorologist said the cone of predictability is 40% better than even when Katrina hit.


    That must be why yesterday, most of the models showed it passing over Hispaiola and then heading up the Atlantic seaboard. Now most of the models show it heading into the Gulf.
    snake284 wrote: »
    For my point of view, cpj is a lot like me
    .
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Fisheadgib wrote: »
    That must be why yesterday, most of the models showed it passing over Hispaiola and then heading up the Atlantic seaboard. Now most of the models show it heading into the Gulf.

    Still a big cone ain't it. It will get down to pinpoint accuracy one of these days. These storms can be unpredictable can't they. They say the Eye ain't where it should be to respond to "Models" and the effects of sheer winds........hell I dunno, just hope it goes someplace else.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,670 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    That's a good idea now just in case. :up:

    Probably wouldn't be a bad idea to get a case or two of bottled water, just in case. If the storm misses you, then you can just drink it. And some paper plates and plastic knives, forks, and spoons. No dishes to wash!
    As long as the Genny works, I'll be in good shape. It has enough wattage to power the well pump, hot water heater, lights, ceiling fans, refrigerator and freezer. The only thing I don't think it will power is the air-conditioning. I also just got 6-5 gal jugs filled with gas and added the stabilizer.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,395 Senior Member
    As long as the Genny works, I'll be in good shape. It has enough wattage to power the well pump, hot water heater, lights, ceiling fans, refrigerator and freezer. The only thing I don't think it will power is the air-conditioning. I also just got 6-5 gal jugs filled with gas and added the stabilizer.

    Good deal! Once the hurricane season is over you can use the gas in your truck and motorcycle. :up:
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • woodsrunnerwoodsrunner Senior Member Posts: 2,725 Senior Member
    yea, Big Chief.....the cite that you posted shows Donna's path perfectly. The "Long Grey Pointy Things" tied up in Mayport Navy Base were kinda on stand-by, but the Storm was projected to cross down close to the Keys and head straight out into the Gulf. Then, all of a sudden, as it crossed south Florida and headed out into the Gulf it suddenly changed course and came back into the lower Gulf Coast close to Naples. That's when 20+ ships in Mayport threw the lines off and steamed about due east at flank speed to get out of the way! It WAS NOT a smooth ride :roll2:
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Looks like it will be just a rain event, Tropical Wave or whatever or a very weak TS. Course the Weather CH is milking it for all its worth.

    I ain't sayin FLA isn't due/past due fer another Hurricane because it has been 10 years since it got hit, but it may be 10 or 100 more who knows..............or next week one could start spinning up if something develops off the coast of Africa again.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Ain't a ship full of seasick sailors an oxymoron? :roll2::roll2::roll2:

    Actually my late FIL was a 30 year Navy man with plenty time on ships and never got seasick he said until after he retired and took a cruise from the northwest to Alaska one year..........sick as a dog.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,395 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Ain't a ship full of seasick sailors an oxymoron? :roll2::roll2::roll2:

    Actually my late FIL was a 30 year Navy man with plenty time on ships and never got seasick he said until after he retired and took a cruise from the northwest to Alaska one year..........sick as a dog.

    Probably the way the ship moved with the waves. I had no problems on the destroyer types; ride was rougher than a red corn cob in heavy seas, but easy to get used to after a while. Spent 2 weeks on two different carriers; one week for a kidney stone and once with a ruptured eardrum. Never got used to the slow roll of those big fat whales, and being sick kidn't help.

    What's funny is that after being at sea for an extended time, it takes a while to get your 'land legs' back. The ground not moving doesn't feel right! :rotflmao:
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • knitepoetknitepoet Senior Member Posts: 21,086 Senior Member
    Sounds like a plan :up:
    Seven Habits of Highly Effective Pirates, Rule #37: There is no “overkill”. There is only “open fire” and “I need to reload”.


  • woodsrunnerwoodsrunner Senior Member Posts: 2,725 Senior Member
    Mike's right about regaining your "land legs". You'll suddenly catch yourself standing with your legs bowed out in the knees to prevent yourself from loosing your balance. Doesn't take but a couple of days, though, to loose these subconscious little "corrections"! Everybody's different in how they react to heavy seas. For me the ship could roll from side to side in heavy seas and it never bothered me very much. BUT....riding into or running with heavy seas really took its toll on me. Let that bow ride up and over a big wave plunging down with the stern coming out of the water and the screws vibrating like hell and I was guaranteed to turn green and "upchuck" :yikes: Been 42 years almost to the day since I last rounded Cape Hatteras in a #6 sea, and I don't miss it a damn bit :tooth:
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,394 Senior Member
    They can talk about Donna, they can talk about Andrew, Camille, Katrina, and Carla, but the worst was the great Labor Day storm of 1935, the worst of the three cat fives that have come into land in the U.S.Mainland since they've been recording them. It was reported to have had winds in excess of 200 miles per hour. It blew a Locomotive over off it's tracks. I think over 700 people died in that one.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,394 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Looks like it will be just a rain event, Tropical Wave or whatever or a very weak TS. Course the Weather CH is milking it for all its worth.

    I ain't sayin FLA isn't due/past due fer another Hurricane because it has been 10 years since it got hit, but it may be 10 or 100 more who knows..............or next week one could start spinning up if something develops off the coast of Africa again.

    The weather channel can take an afternoon squal and make it sound like a major disaster. I love it when they're standing out in the wind like it's about to sweep them off their feet. Dumbasses! All they do is scare a bunch of people. If there's a major hurricane coming I don't need some idiot out in the rain on TV telling me to run. In fact, nowadays if it doesn't look like it's going to be bad, I figure I'm safer in my house than out on a crowded highway. If it's the real deal, I'm outta here.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,394 Senior Member
    As long as the Genny works, I'll be in good shape. It has enough wattage to power the well pump, hot water heater, lights, ceiling fans, refrigerator and freezer. The only thing I don't think it will power is the air-conditioning. I also just got 6-5 gal jugs filled with gas and added the stabilizer.

    When I used to live in the Philippines they had brown outs all the time so I went and bought me a 5000 continuous watt Gen set. It powered a window unit and the well pump. But one day the generator engine was trying to overheat, it was a one cylinder Diesel. I went outside and found my sister in law was using an iron. hehehehe. I just shut the breaker off to the well pump until I saw she was through. Then I turned it back on. We had a hundred gallon pressure tank so no big deal.

    Bye the way, you Floridans just keep that little popcorn fart wind over thataway, we don't need the rain right now. And should it come this way, it could intensify, and we don't need one of those right now.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Snake, I ain't old enough to remember the 1935 storm you speak of and if I wuz, I would have missed it and been enjoying FLA, not kickin dung around Texas :jester:


    Man, could you imagine living back when you got no or very little warning of a storm, much as I/we complain about the over-hype on TV, it is far better than no coverage.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,711 Senior Member
    Fla you can take your pack off
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • Big Al1Big Al1 Senior Member Posts: 7,823 Senior Member
    Much to the disappointment of the sky is falling weather channel and the ply wood department at Home Depot, Erika has fizzled out!
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,395 Senior Member
    Big Al1 wrote: »
    Much to the disappointment of the sky is falling weather channel and the ply wood department at Home Depot, Erika has fizzled out!

    Looks like it will be a rain event now, like the west coast of FL and the Panhandle need a huge rain event.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,394 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Snake, I ain't old enough to remember the 1935 storm you speak of and if I wuz, I would have missed it and been enjoying FLA, not kickin dung around Texas :jester:


    Man, could you imagine living back when you got no or very little warning of a storm, much as I/we complain about the over-hype on TV, it is far better than no coverage.

    Well that's probably a good thing because had either one of us been old enough to have experienced that blow, we may not be breathing air today. That was ONE BAD MOTHER SCOOTER! Can you imagine 200 MPH winds, enough to blow a locomotive over? Of course, the waves from the surge probably knocked the locomotive over. But still, that's a hell of a force to do that.

    Andrew, Katrina, Carla , none was a pimple on that storms ass. Maybe Camille came close if any did.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,670 Senior Member
    snake284 wrote: »
    When I used to live in the Philippines they had brown outs all the time so I went and bought me a 5000 continuous watt Gen set. It powered a window unit and the well pump. But one day the generator engine was trying to overheat, it was a one cylinder Diesel. I went outside and found my sister in law was using an iron. hehehehe. I just shut the breaker off to the well pump until I saw she was through. Then I turned it back on. We had a hundred gallon pressure tank so no big deal.............................
    Mine is a 5500/6500 peak wattage and I do the same thing. The well pump and water heater are high-load devices, so while I can power the appliances and lights/ceiling fans continuously, I would have to shut the breakers alternately for the heater and well pump.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
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