Trump campaign manager charged with simple battery

1356

Replies

  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    I have explained it, at least twice, and you either rejected it, or didn't read it.

    http://forums.gunsandammo.com/showthread.php?28060-I-am-beginning-to-hope-Trump-wins-it-soon&p=542427#post542427 - Post #99

    This is the way it has worked for 160 years. Trump is the one who is trying to change the rules, and suggesting to his supporters that they will riot if the rules are followed.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    "To clinch the nomination, Trump needs to win just 55% of the remaining 899 delegates. Cruz needs 86% and Kasich needs 121% — in other words, hundreds of delegates that don't actually exist. To show the improbable nature of Cruz's task, Trump's dominant position in the delegate count is based on winning only around 47% of the delegates so far awarded."

    First off, they don't call CNN the Clinton News Network for nothing.

    Second, the parties vote on the rules before the start of the convention, and always have. All of the predictions are based on the 2012 rules, which is probably not far off, because the rules have not significantly changed much through the years. I agree that if they make any new rules that will knock out the front runners, it will demoralize the majority of Republican voters. They know that, and while the establishment types like Mitch McConnell and John McCain might be willing to risk electing Hilary, support within the party for that has been crumbling almost from the beginning. Lindsey Graham's endorsement of Cruz is evidence of that. It would be idiotic, and he knows it.

    Theoretically, the candidate is supposed to be the guy with 50% plus one vote (of the delegates). The function of the convention is, and always has been, to send a candidate to the general election who has the majority of party support. This year, that can only be Trump or Cruz.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    bisley wrote: »
    I have explained it, at least twice, and you either rejected it, or didn't read it.

    http://forums.gunsandammo.com/showthread.php?28060-I-am-beginning-to-hope-Trump-wins-it-soon&p=542427#post542427 - Post #99

    This is the way it has worked for 160 years. Trump is the one who is trying to change the rules, and suggesting to his supporters that they will riot if the rules are followed.

    No, what he is saying is REPs will "Riot" if the majority of them voted for a nominee and the REP establishments ignores it and bends/changes the rules to bring in an outsider who either got eliminated early on or wasn't even in the race.

    If Cruz pulls off some kinda hat trick and wins at convention, I think fewer people will cross party lines and vote for him than Trump. Even his fellow Senators can't stand him. This is Ted Cruz who is known for shutting down the GOVT/Tea Party and other things after all which does not resonate with most American voters.

    I think it would be a bad mistake if any of them who get a clear majority isn't the nominee at convention, not necessarily 1237, but even say 1100-1150.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    I think it would be a bad mistake if any of them who get a clear majority isn't the nominee at convention, not necessarily 1237, but even say 1100-1150.
    1150 delegates is NOT a majority. What you are suggesting is a plurality.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,173 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    1150 delegates is NOT a majority.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority
    68747470733a2f2f33312e6d656469612e74756d626c722e636f6d2f35356431373063383938623234303738336463333332313234626264313937642f74756d626c725f696e6c696e655f6e34666f616672613043317365773830682e6a7067
    Overkill is underrated.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Worth listening to go to the 10:40 mark of the video, at least, and watch. He (Newt) has some good points through it all.

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/4825799280001/gingrich-leading-gop-candidates-need-to-get-back-on-message/?playlist_id=2114913880001&intcmp=hphz05#sp=show-clips
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    My new theory is that Kasich is staying in through the end to siphon off the moderate votes that would have otherwise went to Trump and not Cruz had he suspended his campaign. If he was a real team player, he would suspend his campaign at the very end and the vast majority of his delegates would likely go to Cruz on the first ballot-- giving Cruz a majority of delegates.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    1150 delegates is NOT a majority. What you are suggesting is a plurality.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majority


    No, but with Rubio/Kasich/Cruz splitting the rest and having much less than Trump he may have less than 1237 but still have a clear majority over them and not over 50% of the total delegates. You are calling it a plurality, that's OK.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    This whole shebang is starting to look like a game of Snooker or dirty pool.

    Oh I guess it is, called POLITICS.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    A majority is 50% plus one. The Republican rules call for a majority for their nominee. They will keep voting (be it 1 or 20 ballots) until they get at least 50% plus one vote for a nominee. Having 49.999999% of the votes does not make a nominee.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Hey we can settle this right now if you "Cruzers" would just relent and start supporting Trump To Make America Great Again :tooth:
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    My new theory is that Kasich is staying in through the end to siphon off the moderate votes that would have otherwise went to Trump and not Cruz had he suspended his campaign. If he was a real team player, he would suspend his campaign at the very end and the vast majority of his delegates would likely go to Cruz on the first ballot-- giving Cruz a majority of delegates.

    Except...his continued candidacy splits the anti-Trump vote and allows Trump to win states that he may not have otherwise won. It depends on how each state splits the delegates, if they aren't winner-take-all states. If Cruz can go into the convention close enough to Trump that the Rubio and Kasich delegates would put him over, he wins early on and there is no opportunity for tricks within the rules.

    It would take more research than I'm willing to do to figure out whether Kasich's 'plan' could work, but I have felt like he has been grasping at straws for quite a while.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Oh why why why did I come back on this side of the forum again, I was happier just ignoring it. :bang: :bang: :bang:


    Some folks are plain hard haided, stubborn as a Sand Mountain Mule and fer the life of me I'll never understand why :tooth:
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,185 Senior Member
    bisley wrote: »
    .......It seems like the angry voters are starting to come to their senses. They are still angry, but they are starting to realize that Trump is just a salesman who hasn't done his homework and won't ever be able to deliver what he promises. They wanted to believe in Trump, because he voiced their anger, but it's becoming increasingly obvious that he won't be able to deliver........
    I'm not challenging your theory, because in general I respect your political opinions, but I'm wondering where you get this idea or information from. If you're thinking that because of what's happening in the lead-up to the Wisconsin primary, I'm not so sure that this is a reliable indicator. There are still some big-state primaries in New York and California that have (YUUUUUGE) delegate counts that polling says are overwhelmingly in favor of Trump.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Hey we can settle this right now if you "Cruzers" would just relent and start supporting Trump To Make America Great Again :tooth:
    I would prefer to piss on all three of them and get Rand Paul back in the game.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    I would prefer to piss on all three of them and get Rand Paul back in the game.

    Hey Rand Paul has a YUGE announcement to make today and speculation is he will say he is supporting Trump.

    Will you follow suit?
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    It is April Fools Day, who knows what he will say.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,173 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    It is April Fools Day, who knows what he will say.
    He's endorsing entropy.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • shushshush Senior Member Posts: 6,259 Senior Member
    Big Chief wrote: »
    Oh why why why did I come back on this side of the forum again, I was happier just ignoring it. :bang: :bang: :bang:

    I came early, just to get a good view of the locomotive collision.

    giphy.gif





















    PS.

    Train Wreck;

    a total ****ing disaster ...the kind that makes you want to shake your head. :roll:

    cjp wrote: »..... Oh dear God, I've admitted to liking something Limey.I'll never hear the end of this.

    Jayhawker wrote: »...But seriously Shush....

    Big Chief wrote: ».........walking around with a greasy butt ain't no fun, though!

     


     

  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    Yep. That does a pretty good job of explaining.

    I like the graphics and layman's terminology ..................
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • VarmintmistVarmintmist Senior Member Posts: 6,550 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    My new theory is that Kasich is staying in through the end to siphon off the moderate votes that would have otherwise went to Trump and not Cruz had he suspended his campaign. If he was a real team player, he would suspend his campaign at the very end and the vast majority of his delegates would likely go to Cruz on the first ballot-- giving Cruz a majority of delegates.
    All of the delegates have to vote in round 1 for who won the states, they are locked in. That means that Rubio et al will still get their votes in round one. If the trend continues, no one is going to have 1237 going in at this point unless Trump picks up a larger percentage than he has been or Cruz sweeps up, so it will go to round two.

    Round two is where things will happen.
    There is a rule that the nominee MUST have at least 8 states, so everyone is gone in round 2 except Trump and Cruz. Out of the 10 brokered conventions, 7 did not nominate the front runner. Probably why the rule has been adopted. Good news is that brokered conventions nominees have a history of winning the general.

    So the GOP hates Trump and Cruz, what happens?

    To get anyone other than one of these two, the delegates would have to revote the rules, then pick a nominee and vote for him. Dont think that will happen, but that is what needs to be watched, IMHO, it is why Kasich is in, keep the delegates down for 1 and 2, get some states so he can be picked but I dont think it will work. If they dont get the rules changed, then the delegates are free to vote for one of the two candidates left.

    Pretty good article on responsibilities of the convention. http://thefederalist.com/2016/03/10/brokered-gop-conventions-often-produce-a-winning-president/
    It's boring, and your lack of creativity knows no bounds.
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 8,728 Senior Member
    Sadly, this just proves that our entire political system is broken.

    We truly have evolved to a sad position.
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    You need to keep in mind that ND, CO, and others have not pledged delegates yet-- there are 106 total. In some cases (but not all) a candidate with a suspended campaign can release their delegates (or they automatically become free agents) before the first ballot is even cast. Some are bound to the candidate regardless if they have an active campaign or not-- I am just not sure exactly how many are actually obligated to vote for the people that they were originally supposed to support.

    This shows the unbound delegates..
    http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-PU.phtml
    If you add up Rubio, Bush, Carson, Paul, Fiorina, and Huckabee's delegates, you get another 188 delegates for a running total of 294. Take Cruz's current 464 and add Kasich's 144 and you got 902 at the moment.
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 15,344 Senior Member
    Diver43 wrote: »
    Sadly, this just proves that our entire political system is broken.

    We truly have evolved to a sad position.
    How so? Varmintmist posted a good link just above your post explaining how basically the exact same thing happened in the 50's and how it worked out. This is nothing new. We haven't devolved at all in this instance. The party convention does serve a function.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    I'm not challenging your theory, because in general I respect your political opinions, but I'm wondering where you get this idea or information from. If you're thinking that because of what's happening in the lead-up to the Wisconsin primary, I'm not so sure that this is a reliable indicator. There are still some big-state primaries in New York and California that have (YUUUUUGE) delegate counts that polling says are overwhelmingly in favor of Trump.

    I am just stating the possibilities, as I see them, after filtering through what I see and hear, and picking out what I think is logical. Obviously, I'm for Cruz, but I'm not emotionally invested, to any great extent. I've been amazed that so many have not seen through Trump from the beginning, so naturally I think he's toast, after each one of his screw-ups. Surely, there has to be some cumulative effect on him, after all that he has gotten away with, so far. Any other candidate would have been long gone, like Rubio.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    Diver43 wrote: »
    Sadly, this just proves that our entire political system is broken.

    Actually, it just helps to demonstrate why representative republics work and pure democracies don't.

    Bear in mind that the best of governments just barely work, and that corruption always exists. There are no political decisions ever made that don't help some and hurt others. The only 'fair' political decisions are the compromises that nobody likes, and they usually don't solve many problems - they just make the two sides stop arguing about it, for a while. The closest you can ever come to good government is when the public is already pretty close to agreeing, like it was before social issues displaced practical issues as voting platforms. Social issues are emotional, whereas practical issues are just finding something that works.

    The two party system, with all it's faults, insures that the party that represents 50% +1 of the people can make decisions until the next election. It's somewhat better to piss off 50% -1 of the people than 66.6666% -1 of the people, as it would be with three parties, or 75% -1 as it would be with four parties.

    The party conventions in a two party system are designed to find the person whom 50% +1 of their members can stomach for 4 years, and still win the general election. If the delegates are able to figure out that a candidate who has alienated 76% of all female voters in the country cannot win, does it not benefit all of the party's voters if they can choose another more generally popular candidate that can win, that everybody can stomach?

    If you were a delegate at the convention, would you cling to your candidate to the bitter end, knowing that he could not win?
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,699 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    Im not emotionally invested either. This is just an observation but I'm still amazed that folks think anything that comes out of his mouth, even what some see as screwup is not 100% on purpose. That last statement about abortions tickled the hardline Christians conservatives pink, makes the supporters think he was set up by the "bad" press and apologizing later keeps his middle ground appeal in NY and CA intact. His "screw ups" only give a woody to his hardcore detractors, and no one is changing their mind. If I was running his campaign and I'd seen that question in an advance copy I'd have advised him to answer it exactly the way he did and then follow up exactly the way he proceeded. It's all bout selling to the target markets and you can't make them all 100% happy all the time...

    OK, so now all he has to do is win the election with 20-30% of women voters who will still even consider voting for him. Give the polls a 25% margin of error, and he still loses. Then throw in the folks who nearly had a heart attack when he said he would consider using nukes in the Middle East, or possibly even Europe.

    Yeah, right - everything is going according to plan - he will just win all these people over, as soon as he wins the nomination - no sweat. What a genius.
Sign In or Register to comment.
Magazine Cover

GET THE MAGAZINE Subscribe & Save

Temporary Price Reduction

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Give a Gift   |   Subscriber Services

PREVIEW THIS MONTH'S ISSUE

GET THE NEWSLETTER Join the List and Never Miss a Thing.

Get the top Guns & Ammo stories delivered right to your inbox every week.