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Why is Trump losing, at the moment?

bisleybisley Senior MemberPosts: 10,812 Senior Member
Donald Trump is losing ground against Hilary in the polls. He has fired his favorite political advisor who has always said, "let Trump be Trump." Has his more experienced political advisor, Paul Manafort, convinced him that he will lose the election if he doesn't reach out to conservatives? Donald Trump is suggesting, once again, that he can elect himself, and will do so if certain prominent republicans don't fall in behind him. They know this is either a bluff, or worse still, that if he actually believes it, and all is lost, anyway. So, what is he going to do?

I'd like to hear from those who are still thinking logically about how to defeat the worst candidate that the Democrat Party has ever fielded.
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Replies

  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 11,700 Senior Member
    Well, my first thought is that I do not believe the poll numbers put out by todays media. They are liberal leaning and will say whatever they desire even if they have to make it up.

    Another reason is that Trump says lots of politically incorrect things even if many are thinking them.
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • bullsi1911bullsi1911 Moderator Posts: 11,636 Senior Member
    In addition to the stuff about selective polling Wambli posted- also, WHEN the pollsters call makes a huge difference. Who answers the home phone (or even has a home phone) during the middle of the day? Retired (social security) people and the unemployed. Democrat voting blocks
    To make something simple is a thousand times more difficult than to make something complex.
    -Mikhail Kalashnikov
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,812 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    Ok so if you are seeking true conversation and this does not turn into another idiotic bash trump thread I'll play.

    I am seeking to have a conversation in which anybody who has an opinion different from you can ask an honest question, without being trashed as a Trump - basher.

    If Donald Trump does not also believe that he needs conservative Republicans to win, why did he fire Corey Lewandowski and keep Paul Manaforte? So, why does he make this statement on the one hand, while threatening to go it alone, without Republican backing on the other?

    The answer is simple, to me - he's bluffing. He is not going to sell enough real estate to raise the billion dollars he needs to offset the billion dollars Hilary has to attack him with. He is not going to reap the benefits from free media that he did in the Republican primary, because he is now running against a liberal Democrat, who will not only be protected by most of the media, but actively supported. He was bullet-proof with the supporters who gave him the nomination, but that is over, now. If he is going to win, he needs major fundraising help, a ground game, and the RNC political database.

    He now has to take some advice from Republicans and tone down the rhetoric that damages other Republicans who are trying to be elected. If he doesn't, they have no choice but to out him.
  • tubabucknuttubabucknut Banned Posts: 3,520 Senior Member
    bisley wrote: »
    I am seeking to have a conversation in which anybody who has an opinion different from you can ask an honest question, without being trashed as a Trump - basher.
    Thank you.
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    Diver43 wrote: »
    Well, my first thought is that I do not believe the poll numbers put out by todays media. They are liberal leaning and will say whatever they desire even if they have to make it up.

    Another reason is that Trump says lots of politically incorrect things even if many are thinking them.

    Better believe the poll numbers. Trump, I'm afraid will bring down the Republican party with him. He needs to change if he's going to get my vote, and I don't mean quit running his mouth. Politically Correct has become a catch-all that Trump uses to characterize anyone who disagrees with him.

    Thing is I don't think he's capable of changing his ways, or he would have done it by now. He's ungovernable and ungoverned. He's not a conservative I will only vote for a conservative.

    He's losing right now and will continue to lose even more as time goes on as a lot of voters tire of him. He was fun for a month or two but in the cold reality of dawn, he's basically clueless.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 24,611 Senior Member
    Given the situation as it stands right now - if Trump doesn't win, the Republican party needs to be brought down. Its useless.

    As long as Trump doesn't start thumping the Bible, he'll have my vote.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,812 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    He is not bluffing and he does not plan to sell a billion dollars worth of real estate to run because it will never come to that, but he also knows that if he toes the party line without question it will be the death of him same as Cruz went down in flames as soon as he started coming up to the party or did everyone miss that? BUT many people believe that he will and can and those will cheer him on when he makes statements like that, and they call their Senators, Representatives and tell them to back Trump or watch their asses in the next election. Again crowd manipulation.

    This is pure speculation, based on Trump's ability to beat Republicans.

    I contend that beating the Democrats will take more organization, and Trump has practically none, by comparison. Their 'machine' will inundate the key precincts with all manner of electioneering personnel, the Black Panthers, Occupy Wall Street, and most of the radicals left over from Bernie's campaign. Beyond that, they will spend hundreds of millions of dollars on attack ads and send out an army of spin doctors to every network to tell their lies. They are very experienced, whereas most of the handful of people Trump has are amateurs.

    I'm not saying that Trump can't win, in spite of all that, but I am saying that is unlikely. The people he has to win over don't trust what he says like the people who have voted for him, so far. They have to be convinced that he is not the one trick pony that you say Lewendowski is.
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    Not sure what ANY of his policies are. He's stated goals, not paths to those goals. He'll build a wall? That's his only policy strategy? I fear he's relying on us to interpret what WE want him to do and supply our own definitions, since all I've heard are platitudes. "We'll make America great again." What does that mean and how does HE plan to do it. Come on.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • tubabucknuttubabucknut Banned Posts: 3,520 Senior Member
    Gene L wrote: »
    Not sure what ANY of his policies are. He's stated goals, not paths to those goals. He'll build a wall? That's his only policy strategy? I fear he's relying on us to interpret what WE want him to do and supply our own definitions, since all I've heard are platitudes. "We'll make America great again." What does that mean and how does HE plan to do it. Come on.

    Spot on. I could not agree with you more Gene. Especially the emboldened part.

    As I have said before, Pandering.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,692 Senior Member
    Here's the thing about Trump....

    We just don't know. He was projected to finish at best with 10 - 15% of the primary vote, maybe win a state or two. He's said so much stuff that was supposed to finish him. None. Of. It. Happened.

    He's an entity unknown in politics. He has goals, not policies? Fine. He's "imploding?" Wait until next week. We won't know what happens to him until November.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    I fear he's headed for a monumental defeat this November. I agree with most of his "desires" but who doesn't? Clinton will play him like an accordion, he's that predictable. Now he's playing defense, poorly. Now to see how it trends by July 21.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • tubabucknuttubabucknut Banned Posts: 3,520 Senior Member
    He got off topic. His narcissism showed when he went after the Judge in his Trump U case. If he is elected get ready for more me me me me me me. I am Trump, me me me me.

    Bream is right. He is an unknown. I quit forecasting his downfall long ago. He appeals to people. I think that is sad, but it is true. We will know come Nov.
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 24,611 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    The smart play is for the center. You know that weird crew that only cares about the economy/jobs, housing, national safety (terrorism), crime etc. and could NOT give three monkey craps about abortion, religion, assault weapons, gay marriage and who pees in which bathroom..
    :that::agree:

    Guys like me!
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 24,611 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    And hell get the vote of every Republican and centrist that just wants a better job, a better economy, a renewed national pride, some solution to illegal immigration and give a big ,swift ,hurtful punch back to Muslim extremist terrorism.

    And BTW the Leadership politicians and press do not want him to succeed because they believe it will create a similar movement in their continent. It's THAT simple...

    You and I Sir, are in complete agreement.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,812 Senior Member
    I won't believe it till I see it.
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,865 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    And hell get the vote of every Republican and centrist that just wants a better job, a better economy, a renewed national pride, some solution to illegal immigration and give a big ,swift ,hurtful punch back to Muslim extremist terrorism.

    And BTW the Leadership politicians and press do not want him to succeed because they believe it will create a similar movement in their continent. It's THAT simple...

    Without quoting everything you have said in this thread, I pretty much agree with all of it. Having been a part-time, varied business entrepreneur for much longer than I was a cop, I have wished for an accomplished businessman to run for president for decades. The professional politicians have blown it, and made an almost unretrievable mess in my opinion. Sure he has flaws, but who doesn't? I think a lot of people have underestimated him, and I think he is the right man, at the right time for the job at hand. If he could accomplish half the goals in his proposals, I would be happy as a pig in poo-poo. To me, "make America great again" is comparable to having "a shining city on a hill."
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • Murphy's LawMurphy's Law Member Posts: 313 Member
    Trump losing at the polls is irrelevant. We've already lost this Nation decades ago.
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    Without quoting everything you have said in this thread, I pretty much agree with all of it. Having been a part-time, varied business entrepreneur for much longer than I was a cop, I have wished for an accomplished businessman to run for president for decades. The professional politicians have blown it, and made an almost unretrievable mess in my opinion. Sure he has flaws, but who doesn't? I think a lot of people have underestimated him, and I think he is the right man, at the right time for the job at hand. If he could accomplish half the goals in his proposals, I would be happy as a pig in poo-poo. To me, "make America great again" is comparable to having "a shining city on a hill."

    Mitt Romney is an accomplished businessman and got whupped four years ago.

    I don't know but suspect few people here support Trump for his business acumen. He says what they like to hear, but talk his very cheap. I'm a bit surprised that so many people are falling for his empty promises. He's writing checks with his promises that we're going to have to cash.

    If he, for example, deported illegal Mexicans, the cost of vegetables would triple. As would many other things we take for granted. We're invested in illegal labor, like it or not, and there is no simple resolution.

    All these things people are saying Trump will do are inventions by those saying them. I won't bend over and spread my cheeks for him. He's virtually insuring Hillary Clinton will be able to appoint three or four members of SCOTUS. He can't win.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • coolgunguycoolgunguy Senior Member Posts: 6,626 Senior Member
    I don't mean this to sound like an insult, or,that I think you're exaggerating, but every teacher you know? Really??

    My wife is a teacher. Most of her friends are teachers. Her brother is a teacher. Many of our mutual friends are teachers too. A couple of my aunts are teachers. One uncle as well. I cannot think of a single teacher of all those I know who has said they will vote for Trump. I can only think of a handful of 'maybes'....virtually all of them are firmly in the "not a chance in hell" group. Most of them wouldn't vote Republican on a dare, let alone as a matter of choice.

    I have no reason to question your honesty, but it has never been more evident that you and I must run in VERY different circles.

    For myself, I can only hope and pray that I am completely wrong about the man, and that you are completely right...because I swear we must be talking about two different people.
    "Bipartisan" usually means that a bigger than normal deception is happening.
    George Carlin
  • tubabucknuttubabucknut Banned Posts: 3,520 Senior Member
    coolgunguy wrote: »
    I don't mean this to sound like an insult, or,that I think you're exaggerating, but every teacher you know? Really??

    My wife is a teacher. Most of her friends are teachers. Her brother is a teacher. Many of our mutual friends are teachers too. A couple of my aunts are teachers. One uncle as well. I cannot think of a single teacher of all those I know who has said they will vote for Trump. I can only think of a handful of 'maybes'....virtually all of them are firmly in the "not a chance in hell" group. Most of them wouldn't vote Republican on a dare, let alone as a matter of choice.

    I have no reason to question your honesty, but it has never been more evident that you and I must run in VERY different circles.

    For myself, I can only hope and pray that I am completely wrong about the man, and that you are completely right...because I swear we must be talking about two different people.

    I would concur. I have two aunts, two uncles, both my in laws(registered Republicans) that are teachers. None of them are voting Trump. I can not see the Teachers Unions breaking for Trump.
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,428 Senior Member
    If you think being homosexual once meant staying deep in the closet, try being a Republican-voting teacher! I knew dozens of fellow teachers who simply had to hide their real feelings until the curtain of the voting booth closed, just to keep their jobs. I was the exception- - - -an openly-conservative public school teacher, and vocal about it. The difference was that the administrators couldn't bounce me out the door and hire some recent college grad to do my job- - - - -there's no way to borrow a few hundred thousand dollars, attend some liberal arts school, and graduate with enough knowledge and experience to teach kids how to fix cars. It used to delight me to remind some butt-kissing assistant principal who had been a failure in the classroom that I could actually get a real job at twice the pay anytime I wanted!
    Jerry
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    Well, it's too late now to change things. He's the presumptive nominee. I can't ever remember having such two terrible choices for president.

    BTW, "Make America great again" is a goal. And a verb phrase. "A shining city on a hill" is an ideal. and a series of nouns and adjectives.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,429 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    And that is what successful sr. management does. I do NOT tell my folks how to do their job. If I have to do that I hired wrong, and they need to be fired NOW. I don;t run a training camp. My boss does not tell ME how to do my job. If he had to I'd be fired in seconds too. There is a level you reach when all you need to send down the line is goals and then hire the best folks to get it accomplished in an expeditious manner. My goals are handed to me and negotiated ONCE a year. Trump understands that very well just like every other successful CEO out there.

    We'll make America great again is just a slogan. No sense in spending much time on that. And he has said many times (and so have his staffers) that he can't govern as a dictator. When he gets into office he will seek consensus with his top advisors, congress and seek advise of other folks he trusts and then he will act. What else can we ask for? And as far as building a wall and how to pay for it, all he has to do (and he has said he will) is stop the flow of illegal private money to Mexico, and a buttload of other LATAM countries, via Western Union and such by shutting down private money transfers out of the USA unless you can prove the money has been taxed already as income. That will send millions of illegals back home and keep BILLIONS of $$$s working within OUR economy. Why do you think the Mexican President HATES HIM! It has nothing to do with racism. It has to do with the HUGE cut in free money flow to his country, Guatemala, Venezuela,...

    All the info about his plans and policies I need is clearly written in his website. Between that and what I have heard from folks that know him and his family personally, I'm good to go.

    AMEN-AMEN-AMEN~!~!~!~! When's the last time you saw the captain of a ship steering it? That's the Helmsman's job. Do you see him in the engine room checking the oil? Or transferring fuel? or Pumping the Bilge? All those are duties that need to be done to keep the ship underway and above water! But the captain doesn't do them. Also, If an admiral is on board do you see him giving the crew orders to do this stuff? You don't even see the captain doing that, he leaves orders for his officers to do that.

    In other words, Trump will be the captain or the admiral, not a crew member. It will be his duty to insure his orders are carried out in order to get the ship where he wants it to go. It's not even necessary for him to know how it gets done. He will give direction and the people he hires will get it done. He will need to stay in touch with his crew, like in cabinet meetings and such to insure he's making progress, but it's not the Prez's job to steer the ship. Only to make sure it gets to its prescribed destination.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • Gene LGene L Senior Member Posts: 12,346 Senior Member
    snake284 wrote: »
    AMEN-AMEN-AMEN~!~!~!~! When's the last time you saw the captain of a ship steering it? That's the Helmsman's job. Do you see him in the engine room checking the oil? Or transferring fuel? or Pumping the Bilge? All those are duties that need to be done to keep the ship underway and above water! But the captain doesn't do them. Also, If an admiral is on board do you see him giving the crew orders to do this stuff? You don't even see the captain doing that, he leaves orders for his officers to do that.

    In other words, Trump will be the captain or the admiral, not a crew member. It will be his duty to insure his orders are carried out in order to get the ship where he wants it to go. It's not even necessary for him to know how it gets done. He will give direction and the people he hires will get it done. He will need to stay in touch with his crew, like in cabinet meetings and such to insure he's making progress, but it's not the Prez's job to steer the ship. Only to make sure it gets to its prescribed destination.

    What orders? And so far, has Trump listened to anyone of importance in his campaign? A captain of a ship at least knows where it's going and how to get there so he can check on the compass every once in a while. Otherwise you have a helmsman running things. The other problem is for the captain to try to take on all the duties of keeping on track. One of Trump's biggest failing is he has no helmsman. He has not demonstrated any proclivity to hand off responsibility.

    My conscience at this point won't allow me to vote for Trump. I won't pull the lever (an outdated metaphor) for someone for whom I have no confidence and who so far has not acted remotely presidential.

    I'm not trying to convince anyone else to stay at home. Do as you will. For me, it's a personal thing.
    Concealed carry is for protection, open carry is for attention.
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 24,611 Senior Member
    Gene L wrote: »
    I can't ever remember having such two terrible choices for president.
    Now you know how a lot of people feel - I certainly can remember. Like every single presidential election since I've been voting. For myself, this is the FIRST election that I can vote for someone with a more-or-less clear conscience. Whether or not he delivers is a totally separate question, but that can be said about ANY politician. Even Reagan didn't keep all his campaign promises. At least Trump is making all the right noises, no-one else ever has within my memory.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • JeeperJeeper Senior Member Posts: 2,954 Senior Member
    zorba wrote: »
    Now you know how a lot of people feel - I certainly can remember. Like every single presidential election since I've been voting. For myself, this is the FIRST election that I can vote for someone with a more-or-less clear conscience. Whether or not he delivers is a totally separate question, but that can be said about ANY politician. Even Reagan didn't keep all his campaign promises. At least Trump is making all the right noises, no-one else ever has within my memory.

    This. The first candidate I can think of since Reagan, who truly at least seems to express my disgust with the way our Government wastes our money!!!

    Luis
    Wielding the Hammer of Thor first requires you to lift and carry the Hammer of Thor. - Bigslug
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,812 Senior Member
    I get the correlation with marketing ploys that Wambli is so impressed with, and its success, so far, has showed some promise for winning elections, although I still think the evidence is inconclusive when applied to the general election.

    My concern is that this corporate approach to government, if it does work, will do more to neutralize the Constitution than the haters of it have been able to accomplish. It is based on pure advertising, which, more often than not seeks to sell things by fooling the consumer into believing that one particular brand of the same product is better than its competitors almost identical product. It's all about packaging, promotion, and creating false perceptions. Sometimes the product meets expectations, and sometimes it doesn't. Either way, the seller takes his profits (or losses), and moves on to the next product campaign.

    I don't see how that can result in good government. It is more of a 'let the buyer beware' approach, which is basically just giving the voters a choice between two sides of the same coin.
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,865 Senior Member
    Gene L wrote: »
    Well, it's too late now to change things. He's the presumptive nominee. I can't ever remember having such two terrible choices for president.

    BTW, "Make America great again" is a goal. And a verb phrase. "A shining city on a hill" is an ideal. and a series of nouns and adjectives.

    Oh gee, thanks Sam.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • john9001john9001 Senior Member Posts: 668 Senior Member
    Hillary is the most accomplished liar I have ever seen, she is even better at lying than her husband.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    Bush/Romney and the rest of those clowns like Ryan should keep their pie holes shut. Sore losers who lost out or their pick did. They are their own worst enemy. Now is the time to get behind the presumptive REP nominee or else the Witch will be back in the WH and Bubba will be the First Man.

    Like it/hate it maybe pissing blood like TennMike is (for different reasons) over it get behind Trump now or you really will have something 10X worse if she wins. Just the way it is and this election cycle has played out. He got more votes than any other REP candidate ever in the primaries........

    It will take us all to keep her out. Time to come together folks it is between A and B no C choice available that can win. Fantasy again about delegates pulling away from their pledges, some may try, but will not succeed. Wonder who is behind it? Take a big guess.

    I have some philosophical differences with Trump too, but have been a supporter since day 1.

    Bitching/Moaning and Groaning about him incessantly is only gonna play into the DEMs hands.
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
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