Are the new tariffs the first real test for Trump loyalists

bisley

If these new tariffs work as intended, they will have been a bold move that fixes something that is broken. It is the first thing that Trump has done that may require a bit of suffering from the producing half of the electorate, to fix a long term problem, for years to come. Tariffs on steel mean higher prices for everyone, as businesses will pass on the extra expense to to consumers, rather than take the entire loss upon themselves.

Some will pass half of it on and absorb the rest, themselves. But some will pass on the whole amount, and add a little bit of extra profit for themselves, because they can blame Trump for it. Either way, it means higher prices that may cancel out the recent tax cut that has raised Trump's poll numbers, and dragged Republicans in Congress up a little bit, too. The opposition knows this and will exploit it to the max, colluding with China and Russia to crush it. European, Canadian, and Mexican governments may 'eat the pain,' this time, because it will have Trump more vulnerable than he has been on any other of the promises that he has tried to keep. If they give in, and allow him to win his gamble, there will be no stopping him in his "Make America Great" strategy.

Hang on tight, and hope he's right, I reckon.

Old Ron

Cost will always go up .....it is to bad quality doesn't do the same.
A 50 year frig. is still running & a new one only lasts 5 years if you are lucky.
Most of us will pay higher prices for better products. With no job the price doesn't matter.
Drain the swamp & bring back laws for all & things will work out.  And stop taking money away from working people & giving it away !

Big Chief

They probably will reach a compromise. Something we and other countries can live with. Why should some countries be allowed to charge us 10% tariffs on cars and they only have to pay 2.5%.

It has been skewed fer decades, unfair to the USA.

Sometimes for political/International relations reasons and to help foreign economy's . It is about time something was done. They can scream unfair all they want, but they have been screwing us fer long enough.

The EU band together and they all put their own countries/workers first and they should as we should. 

It may not end up being 100% fair with all things considered for a multitude of reasons, but should be a lot more balanced when he is done, not so lopsided.

It is hard to turn off the lucrative trade imbalance spigot they are used to drinking from for so long and a lot of mindsets need to be changed.

They will come to the bargaining table in time and yes they/we will suffer some in the meantime.

 

Big Chief

It may not be 'Even Stevens' as the same across the board, but we can and should do much better.

Make_My_Day

Trump is using these tariffs as "bargaining chips." I'm fairly certain they will not remain for long.

earlyagain

Prices are already canceling out the tax cuts. Its easier to pay off debt with inflated dollars.

I don't have a real good handle on cause and effect of tarrifs. 

I think sometimes expectations of the power of the POTUS are inflated as it relates to the economy, and suspect that reactions and actions of markets are more culpable.

bullsi1911

Make_My_Day said:

Trump is using these tariffs as "bargaining chips." I'm fairly certain they will not remain for long.

I agree.  He knows that tarrifs will hurt his voting base, but the media is so biased, that they are convincing EVERYONE that trump is 'just dumb enough to do this!'

And it has worked every time he has done it

bisley

bullsi1911 said:

Make_My_Day said:

Trump is using these tariffs as "bargaining chips." I'm fairly certain they will not remain for long.

I agree.  He knows that tarrifs will hurt his voting base, but the media is so biased, that they are convincing EVERYONE that trump is 'just dumb enough to do this!'

And it has worked every time he has done it

I agree that a compromise between the countries being 'assessed' and the US will be an improvement that should drive prices lower, once the tariffs are lifted. I understand that this is what he's aiming for. But all of the assessed countries know it, too, and their prices will go up to their consumers, as a result of any such compromise.

My question is how long before Republicans and the handful of independents that vote for him will start to rebel against the 'temporary' price hikes that the tariffs will cause? They could be ~30% on some things. I figure I can stand it OK, so I will be patient for a few months. But, when they really start to bite a little bit, the media will go berserk (more so than usual, because this time they actually have a reasonable argument). Then comes the real test, if it goes that long.

He has already bluffed them, and they called the bluff. So, he has to put up or shut up, and hope that they will break before he sinks the Republican Party in the mid-term elections. However much his voter base sticks with him may  determine whether or not he can stick it out long enough.

tennmike

Tariffs always have been, and always will be, a way to level the playing field and prevent others from dumping lower cost, and generally lower quality products, on a country. Tariffs as a bargaining chip CAN work and make the other countries play more fairly with others.

And quality products DO cost more than most of the cheap knockoff foreign junk.

The BIGGEST problem is the U.S. government itself. Laws are passed that cause business to have to raise prices to pay for the unfunded mandates from the La La Land Congress. Health care, forced benefits, and then there's the greedy unions that force wages to levels that make the businesses noncompetitive in the world markets. Greed is the root of a lot of the problems in the U.S. And state and federal taxes that drive businesses to the point of being forced to charge more just to keep from going bankrupt. It's a complicated mess, and the governments, state and federal, do nothing but exacerbate the problem and make it much, MUCH, worse.

horselips

I'm with The Donald. 

HappySquid

tennmike said:

Tariffs always have been, and always will be, a way to level the playing field and prevent others from dumping lower cost, and generally lower quality products, on a country. Tariffs as a bargaining chip CAN work and make the other countries play more fairly with others.

And quality products DO cost more than most of the cheap knockoff foreign junk.

In Europe we are only wondering why Trump wants to tarif something you need and cannot make yourselves?

And over here we do not buy expensive US junk (like cars, not to good alcohol or clothing)

BTW; Porche is only selling their new models OUTSIDE Europe (USA,China, etc)  because they do not meet our technical minimum standards. 

Big Chief

Some of them countries are gettin over on us like fat rats.......and they know it, but have had it that way for so long they expect it on trade deals.

Some of it was to help rebuild their economy after WWII, to allow US bases to stop the spread of communism, favorable to NATO countries or some kinda teat fer tat deal. Some for global economics and to help China become an economic player in world markets and other diplomatic reasons like the USA being nice guys to trade with who will always make good deals for them and gain influence for us with them.

As time went on it got tangled/complicated and more and more lopsided.

They are just pissed off the 'Free Lunch' they have been given on a platter is about to change and they will be paying something for it. Some are so favorable to them they know they wouldn't ever give any other country the same deal we gave them, doesn't make economic sense.

Yes, threat of tariffs are bargaining chips and it will be hard to justify leaving the status quo like it is on trade when it is all on the table and some pain is to be expected as it is all sorted out.

We have been taking it in the shorts long enough with trade imbalances/deficits.

The big picture has to looked at too, like foreign companies having factories here and employing Americans vs what tariffs they impose on our products and what the "Trade-Off" is and the economic impact to both countries.

Gotta get smart on trade, not mean and greedy, just be more fair to us.  

 

kansashunter

Agriculture depends on exports a great deal and right now the experts and the politicians are having a cow over a trade war. All of the people I know see this more as a short time pain for a long time gain. If it drags on that attitude will change. Remember that a lot of these counties need to import food to survive so they will suffer also, who will blink first I don't know.

HappySquid

I dont know about you guys but I will buy what I want and can afford whenever I need or feel so.
 For that I need to produce or sell something someone else wants and can afford and is willing to pay my asking price for.
Someone imposing import tariffs missed out on Keynes .

centermass556

It would seem to me, after watching Trumps economic moves, that he is a subscriber to Adam Smith. And. A few things come to mind when looking at what is going on:

As a rich man is likely to be a better customer to the industrious people in his neighborhood than a poor, so is likewise a rich nation. [Trade restrictions,] by aiming at the impoverishment of all our neighbors, tend to render that very commerce insignificant and contemptible.

The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV, Chapter III, Part II, p.495, para. c11.

Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production; and the interest of the producer ought to be attended to, only so far as it may be necessary for promoting that of the consumer.

The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV Chapter VIII, v. ii, p. 660, para. 49.

and 

By means of glasses, hotbeds, and hotwalls, very good grapes can be raised in Scotland, and very good wine too can be made of them at about thirty times the expense for which at least equally good can be brought from foreign countries. Would it be a reasonable law to prohibit the importation of all foreign wines, merely to encourage the making of claret and burgundy in Scotland?

The Wealth Of Nations, Book IV, Chapter II, p. 458, para. 15.

timc

The steel tariffs were badly needed. I have worked in this industry for 37 years and we have never suffered through low profit margins like we have since 2008. We are finally starting to make some headway again thanks to Trump. A little pain is needed to get things back in line.

snake284

A little pain is needed and some improvement in our trade agreements is also needed, At Some Point. Right now he's got jobs coming back here, unemployment is low, the stock market is flourishing like never before, and he's getting more popular. But, just like Immigration, I think he's trying to do too much right now. While he's doing some great things, he needs to keep in mind that there's mid term elections coming and that in 2 1/2 years he too will be back on the voting block. I think right now while things are in his favor he needs to drop these new tariffs and bring them up in the future after the House and Senate AND the White House are secured. He's making great progress in Immigration, but he needs to stop screwing with legal immigration for now. Stop illegal immigration first, builld the wall, then in his last semester he can modify legal immigration if it still looks like it needs to be worked on.

snake284

bisley said:

bullsi1911 said:

Make_My_Day said:

Trump is using these tariffs as "bargaining chips." I'm fairly certain they will not remain for long.

I agree.  He knows that tarrifs will hurt his voting base, but the media is so biased, that they are convincing EVERYONE that trump is 'just dumb enough to do this!'

And it has worked every time he has done it

I agree that a compromise between the countries being 'assessed' and the US will be an improvement that should drive prices lower, once the tariffs are lifted. I understand that this is what he's aiming for. But all of the assessed countries know it, too, and their prices will go up to their consumers, as a result of any such compromise.

My question is how long before Republicans and the handful of independents that vote for him will start to rebel against the 'temporary' price hikes that the tariffs will cause? They could be ~30% on some things. I figure I can stan "d it OK, so I will be patient for a few months. But, when they really start to bite a little bit, the media will go berserk (more so than usual, because this time they actually have a reasonable argument). Then comes the real test, if it goes that long.

He has already bluffed them, and they called the bluff. So, he has to put up or shut up, and hope that they will break before he sinks the Republican Party in the mid-term elections. However much his voter base sticks with him may  determine whether or not he can stick it out long enough.

This is no time for poker and we need to get the midterms in the books before we go hanging out on a limb playing "I dare you!" Let the tariffs lie for awhile. There's still enough excitement right now. Let the pot settle down and the electorate savor the joys of the great economy we have going on right now. That's how you win elections, not by waving the red flag at the bull. First of all we need good law makers in office and a conservative president. If we piss off the voters we won't win and if we're not in office we will not only lose the battle we will lose the war. Ease off the gas, it's a long race and we need to save some fuel for the finish.

bisley

Well, he's been right for the most part on most of the business issues, so I'll back off and see what happens. The Canadians and Mexicans are already saying they will target our major manufacturers with retaliatory measures, so I guess we will just see who blinks first.

I agree on peeling them off one by one and making deals between individual countries, rather than one size fits all.

Michakav

It is going to hurt my company pretty good. I work for NobelClad (formerly DMC), which is an explosion welded clad metal company. We source a lot of material from oversees mostly due to time frames. We can get oversees metal much faster and cheaper than from the states. Even with the slow boat ride over. We have had numerous meetings about it,, but are still unsure of how it will ultimately effect us. Time will tell I suppose. I would hate to start over at this point in my life!

In case anyone is interested.. https://www.nobelclad.com/

A video of my shop..I assemble and haul the plates to the mine. I also drive explosives to another mine to make manufactured diamonds for industrial use......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u51tJdRDK0

Jermanator

Just in time for my distillery with those steel trusses and a steel roof deck. Plus I wanted to put solar panels on the roof but tariffs were put on those awhile back-- I guess I will have to wait and see. Then of course, in retaliation, they want to put tariffs on American liquor exported to their countries. Maybe the reduced prices for American corn, wheat, rye, and barley will make up for it when our export partners put tariffs on those.

bisley

Another 'big picture' way to look at this is that Trump has to apply tariffs to everyone who has been benefiting at our expense on the tariff issue, or China can claim that we are just picking specifically on them. They are the most difficult 'nut' to crack, and this may be necessary to counter any arguments they make that we are not dealing in good faith with them.

It's a complicated issue, and no American politician has had the cojones to deal with it, for decades. It's like trying to balance the budget, lower the deficit, or any of the other issues that are painful to fix. Except, in this case, it is one bit of leverage that the president can use that Congress can't water down, dramatically. Whether right or wrong, I won't know until it either works, or fails miserably.

Fisheadgib

To my understanding, Trump is just leveling the playing field with reciprocal taxes and tariffs. He only wants to apply the same level of taxes and tariffs to each country as they apply to the US so I don't get why any AMERICAN would object to our president working towards fairness for our country. As others have mentioned, short term inconvenience will result in long term gains. Incidentally, a little searching showed that one of our biggest imports form China is consumer electronics while their biggest imports from us are food items and agricultural machinery (for growing food). I'm pretty sure that I can go without a new phone, computer, or television for longer than China could go without food.

HappySquid

Fisheadgib said:

To my understanding, Trump is just leveling the playing field with reciprocal taxes and tariffs. He only wants to apply the same level of taxes and tariffs to each country as they apply to the US so I don't get why any AMERICAN would object to our president working towards fairness for our country. As others have mentioned, short term inconvenience will result in long term gains. Incidentally, a little searching showed that one of our biggest imports form China is consumer electronics while their biggest imports from us are food items and agricultural machinery (for growing food). I'm pretty sure that I can go without a new phone, computer, or television for longer than China could go without food.

Sorry, but who do you think is paying the US deficit ???????

China OWNS the US 

sorry to mention this

HappySquid

I dont feel like explaining this but: if a government is "working" with a deficit it implies that that government is borrowing money from another government.

Just track the US bonds.

earlyagain

HappySquid said:

I dont feel like explaining this but: if a government is "working" with a deficit it implies that that government is borrowing money from another government.

Just track the US bonds.

The dollar is mightier than the sword. Just like air power replaced naval. Could the cold warriors of old be failing to recognise the change?

bisley

HappySquid said:

Fisheadgib said:

To my understanding, Trump is just leveling the playing field with reciprocal taxes and tariffs. He only wants to apply the same level of taxes and tariffs to each country as they apply to the US so I don't get why any AMERICAN would object to our president working towards fairness for our country. As others have mentioned, short term inconvenience will result in long term gains. Incidentally, a little searching showed that one of our biggest imports form China is consumer electronics while their biggest imports from us are food items and agricultural machinery (for growing food). I'm pretty sure that I can go without a new phone, computer, or television for longer than China could go without food.

Sorry, but who do you think is paying the US deficit ???????

China OWNS the US 

sorry to mention this

So, what are they going to do - re-possess us?

China has been our adversary ever since they no longer needed us to save them from the Japanese Empire. They can collect interest on our debt for as long as we are able to pay it, or cut a deal to wipe it from the books for a lesser amount. We will continue to make payments on what we owe, as long as they don't treat us like a full-fledged existential enemy. But, if they get too belligerent towards us, we can withhold interest payments, until an agreement is reached, or 'diddle' with their banking system. It is much better to borrow from an enemy than to be owed by one and badly need the repayments. Who asked them to start buying our treasury bonds? They did it in an attempt to gain advantage over us, and we knew it, and we have a way out, if it ever gets down and dirty.

Our economy is twice the size of theirs and gaining steadily. Their risks are more dire than ours are, as there are still many frailties in their government controlled economy that are lesser for us.

This should not be shocking to anyone, Europeans least of all. European countries have been using everything at their disposal to have their debts forgiven, since WWI, and further compounded by WWII. We have been doing all kinds of deals, for a hundred years, to keep debt from crushing our allies, and we do not intend for debt to crush us, now.

HappySquid

earlyagain said:

HappySquid said:

I dont feel like explaining this but: if a government is "working" with a deficit it implies that that government is borrowing money from another government.

Just track the US bonds.

The dollar is mightier than the sword. Just like air power replaced naval. Could the cold warriors of old be failing to recognise the change?

Early, who needs to accept the Dollar as payment ?

earlyagain

HappySquid said:

earlyagain said:

HappySquid said:

I dont feel like explaining this but: if a government is "working" with a deficit it implies that that government is borrowing money from another government.

Just track the US bonds.

The dollar is mightier than the sword. Just like air power replaced naval. Could the cold warriors of old be failing to recognise the change?

Early, who needs to accept the Dollar as payment ?

My use of dollar was intended as universal currency. As in economic power is greater than military. It does seem though that the American dollar is a sought after commodity and that bisley's comments contain valid content.

centermass556

The world trades in Dollars for two reasons, 1) to protect their own currency and 2) because regardless of whatever is going on how much debt we incur, the Dollar stays steady. 

The Euro was making a really good run at being the next world currency, but has shown factors of instability - especially with the P.I.G.S debt the EU is financing. 

However, no one "needs" to accept the dollar as payment. The world could try to move away from the dollar, however that would start a huge world recession. The US knows this, so it really doesn't matter how much debt we incur. The minute we decide to default economies, like China's, will fold up over night. China plays a very dangerous game in betting that will not default. They float the value of their currency up and down to make their good more marketable within Asia, and trade in dollars to keep that protection over the Yuan. 

earlyagain

Absolutely.
Seems like a benefit of fiat currency.

I suppose now the question is if the future sees us in a light of self preservation or exploitive.