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Is Iran close to the ICBM than we think?

robert38-55robert38-55 Senior MemberPosts: 3,621 Senior Member
The USA and Iran are at odds over the proposed oil embargo sanctions. Any excuse to raise the prices at the pumps huh? Here is a quote from the article:
The EU is considering a ban — already in place in the United States — on imports of Iranian oil, although diplomats and traders say awareness is growing in the EU that such a ban could damage the bloc's economy without doing much to hurt Iran.

Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said imposing sanctions on Iran's oil exports would lead to a leap in prices.

"Undoubtedly the price of crude will increase dramatically if sanctions are imposed on our oil ... It will reach at least over $200 per barrel," the Aseman weekly quoted Qasemi on Saturday as saying

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45832464/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
"It is what it is":usa:
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Replies

  • N320AWN320AW Senior Member Posts: 648 Senior Member
    As far as the ICBM is concerned: NO.

    Iran has the capability to manufacture short to medium range stuff. You know, the type that could hit neighboring countries like, a'hmm ... Israel, but not intercontinental ballistic missles.
  • englishbobenglishbob Member Posts: 35 Member
    Closer than we think? More to the point, it's closer than we care to believe or admit!

    Nor do I believe it's sabre-rattling from Iran, either. I believe their goal is to acquire/manufacture a viable, deliverable nuclear device and the first time this will be confirmed, is when it's launched against Tel Aviv.
    “Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Sir Winston Churchill
  • N320AWN320AW Senior Member Posts: 648 Senior Member
    englishbob wrote: »
    Closer than we think? More to the point, it's closer than we care to believe or admit!

    Nor do I believe it's sabre-rattling from Iran, either. I believe their goal is to acquire/manufacture a viable, deliverable nuclear device and the first time this will be confirmed, is when it's launched against Tel Aviv.

    If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!

    I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?
  • MileHighShooterMileHighShooter Senior Member Posts: 4,975 Senior Member
    N320AW wrote: »
    If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!

    I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?

    Yes. Yes they are.
  • N320AWN320AW Senior Member Posts: 648 Senior Member
    Yes. Yes they are.

    Then we're in worse shape than I thought! :bang:
  • MileHighShooterMileHighShooter Senior Member Posts: 4,975 Senior Member
    cpj wrote: »
    Yes. These are the same people that cover up their women, stone them for "being bad" and wipe their with their fingers.

    Yup, got to love a culture where a woman gets raped, and SHE is the one put to death for sex outside of marriage. The raper, is usually set free because she obviously seduced him into it and he is unable to control his primal instincts. Oh wait, she CAN get set free...by marrying her rapist. This happened very recently, a womans 10 year sentence was overturned when she agreed to marry one of her family members, the rapist, and father of her rape-child.
  • englishbobenglishbob Member Posts: 35 Member
    N320AW wrote: »
    If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!

    I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?


    Or no doubt as the Iranians believe, mutually assured martyrdom......

    Armadinijad has stated on more than one occassion that Iran's goal is to see Israel wiped off the map. He means it. They mean it. Diplomacy only comes from force with the Iranians. And for what it's worth, the US and the UK are regarded in the same breath as Israel. During the recent attack on the British embassy in Tehran, UK, US and Israeli flags were all burned at the same time. The attack was blamed on "students", but nothing happens in Iran, especially protests of any kind, unless state sanctioned.

    The UK no longer has ostensibly, diplomatic relations with Iran.

    Are the leaders of Iran that stupid? No, they are that fanatical......!!
    “Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” Sir Winston Churchill
  • N320AWN320AW Senior Member Posts: 648 Senior Member
    Well then, lets just get it over with.

    Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and can, believe me, take care of themselves.

    Go for it Iran! So long. Virgins: Stand by! Your consorts may be on the way!
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,428 Senior Member
    Stand by, martyrs- - - - - -nobody said those virgins necessarily have to be female, did they?
    Jerry
  • gunwalkergunwalker Member Posts: 479 Member
    In the famous words of Norman Scwarzkoff"their desire is to meet their maker. Our job is to arrange the meeting"
    As one posted said, they are not stupid just fanatical. A lot of the top leadership are fanatical "twelvers" meaning they await the return of the 12th imam who will return during a time of great chaos. The current president of Iran believes that the return can be hastened by creating the chaos . He has gone so far as to have a boulevard built just for the 12th Imam to traverse the city.
    The question that is most difficult to answer is whether there are enough twelvers in power to control the nuclear weapon, assuming they develop it.
    We do not view the world as it is, but as we perceive it to be.
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,428 Senior Member
    That stench rising from the general direction of Iran today is the result of a whole bunch of fanatics crapping their pants at the arrival of- - - -count 'em- - - -THREE aircraft carriers in their area, all flying the Stars and Stripes, plus a huge reinforcement ot Saudi Arabia with state of the art fighter planes. They're backpedaling already. "Well, it's just not time to block the strait right now- - - -but we could if we wanted to!" It looks like their bigmouthed jerk just got his bluff called!

    Jerry
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    I still dont understand what is keeping Iran from developing a nuke? Hell, the first one we made was called a "garage bomb," because of its actual simplicity and use of supplies obtained from a hardware store. Anybody with a knowledge of high explosives and compression could make one given the ease of obtaining U 235 I believe. Whats there holdup? Let them develope one so that we can turn them to glass!
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,877 Senior Member
    It's not as easy to obtain U235
    The first bombs were inefficient
    Making the proper high explosives and wiring them to detonate takes some pretty high tech stuff
    I'm just here for snark.
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    But the second, dropped on Nagasaki was much less complex. It was larger in size due to the space needed to fire a projectile of uranium into a conical shape of uranium, and is inifficient compared to the hydrogen bombs of today with a nuke actually being the booster, but damn it did a TON of damage.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,877 Senior Member
    Maybe so, but it was hard to get enough U235 to make it. Iran's problem is that they have a hard time getting the centrifuges to separate out the U235. They need a small bomb because all they have to deliver the bombs would be Chengdu J-7 interceptors (think MiG-21) and Sukhoi Su-24's multirole aircraft, not unless they jury rig a transport. The J-7 has a maximum load rating of 500 lb. per hard point, Su-24 is rated at just over 1,000 lb. per hardpoint. Fat Man weighed 10,213 lb, Little Boy was 9,700 lb. Their aircraft can only hold tactical bombs, not a strategic one that'll do a lot of damage. They either need to use a missile or buy a bomber. Even then, they'll need to shrink the bomb to make it usable either by the launch rocket or the bomber.
    I'm just here for snark.
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    Ah great point. I would worry more about the jihadist a hole kitchen chemist that could easily obtain the right components and build one on American soil and use it here as well. Then again, Iran getting a bomber is never out of the question. It should never be forgotten how much damage that one man could do. Look at Timothy Mcvey for instance.
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,877 Senior Member
    McVeigh also showed you don't need a nuke to do lots of damage. Something to consider.
    I'm just here for snark.
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,428 Senior Member
    Does anybody know how many of the Soviet "suitcase" nukes went unaccounted for when their system went belly-up? A terrorist attack in a major city with something like that wouldn't necessarily have a huge death toll, but the psychological impact would be massive!
    Jerry
  • SirGeorgeKillianSirGeorgeKillian Senior Member Posts: 5,463 Senior Member
    Teach wrote: »
    Does anybody know how many of the Soviet "suitcase" nukes went unaccounted for when their system went belly-up? A terrorist attack in a major city with something like that wouldn't necessarily have a huge death toll, but the psychological impact would be massive!
    Jerry

    Remember the anthrax scare....
    Unless life also hands you water and sugar, your lemonade is gonna suck!
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    I'm in love with a Glock
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    Ricin is even a scarier thought. Again, capable by the kitchen chemist.
  • farm boyfarm boy Senior Member Posts: 1,001 Senior Member
    Teach wrote: »
    That stench rising from the general direction of Iran today is the result of a whole bunch of fanatics crapping their pants at the arrival of- - - -count 'em- - - -THREE aircraft carriers in their area, all flying the Stars and Stripes, plus a huge reinforcement ot Saudi Arabia with state of the art fighter planes. They're backpedaling already. "Well, it's just not time to block the strait right now- - - -but we could if we wanted to!" It looks like their bigmouthed jerk just got his bluff called!

    Jerry

    Jerry has it right, those three carriers are damn near 15 acres of prime US airport. ONE CARRIER has more air power than any NATIONS combined air assets. Not to mention the THREE Battle Groups. That is a lot of Cruise Missiles. **** is gonna be needing a deeper hole. I also agree with Chris, they still squat over a hole in the floor and wipe with their hands. Just not that bright.
    I am afraid we forget sometime that the basic and simple things brings us the most pleasure.
    Dad 5-31-13
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    I still dont understand what is keeping Iran from developing a nuke? Hell, the first one we made was called a "garage bomb," because of its actual simplicity and use of supplies obtained from a hardware store. Anybody with a knowledge of high explosives and compression could make one given the ease of obtaining U 235 I believe. Whats there holdup? Let them develope one so that we can turn them to glass!

    U-235 makes up a 0.711% of the naturally occurring uranium isotopes. The yellowcake must be processed to remove the uranium. Then the uranium must be converted to uranium hexa-fluoride to make it suitable for processing in HUGE banks of centrifuges to separate the U-235 from the other isotopes. Since the difference between U-235 and the most common U-238 is the weight of three neutrons, it takes a lot of passes through the centrifuges to separate the .0711% of U-235 from the 99.289% of the other isotopes, and there's plutonium in that mix, too. Processing plants have to be worried about 'hide-out' uranium in the piping and equipment; a large plating of U-235 could possibly become large enough to reach criticality on its own. That could become extremely exciting to anyone in close proximity.

    Get a sufficient quantity of U-235 in close proximity and it will reach critical mass and start an uncontrolled fission event. Slamming two hemispheres of it together at high speed is one way to cause the uncontrolled chain reaction explosion. Placing a sphere of it inside a large amount of explosive and detonating the explosive to form an implosion of the uranium and its uncontrolled fission is another. And adding H3 gas to enhance the explosion by its addition of neutrons to enhance fission is a whole nother proposition.

    Given their lack of respect for life and safety over there, I'm surprised that there haven't been reports of mass deaths of workers messing with that stuff. (I'm guessing that is going on, but is being kept quiet). Radiation is nasty stuff. You can't see, smell, or taste it, but it will kill quite efficiently. Inhaling radioactive isotopes in sufficient quantity will kill, and it doesn't take all that much. I kind of lied about not being able to see gamma radiation. If you are in a high enough gamma ray field, you 'see' a bright neon blue light. It's not that you actually 'see' a light; it's the interaction of the gamma rays with the fluid in your eyes that causes your retinas to 'see' the blue Cherenkov glow. Everything you look at has a blue glow like this while in the field. Pretty, ain't it?

    cerenkov.jpg

    Even with the help the Iranians are getting from Russia, China, and North Korea, I would not be surprised if they end up making a large hole where one of their research facilities are located. They are showing a lack of respect for what they are handling, and it will cost them dearly at some point. Better them than someone else, though.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,428 Senior Member
    From some recent reports from that area, it appears that someone is "helping" them make some of the mistakes you're talking about. Maybe the CIA, or more likely the Mossad, is not as inept as we've been led to believe!
    Jerry
  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 9,329 Senior Member
    A great many folks seem to be underestimating the capabilities of scientists in the Islamic world. I look at it this way:

    I'm a mathematical cripple. I failed first-year algebra not once, but twice - and actually put in some serious effort to succeed the second time. Mere mention of the word "polynomial" will cause my eyes to glaze over and my consciousness to lapse. My fingers are a commonly used addition tool.

    So taking my own limitations into account, I ask; "What would it take to keep someone sufficiently motivated to sit through enough math, physics, and chemistry to build a nuclear bomb?"

    Brilliance and curiosity got it done for Oppenheimer, but religious fanaticism will undoubtedly serve in a pinch. You don't need a genius anymore because the hard part - the science - has already been done. All they need is a clever nut-job with a copy of the Haynes or Chilton A-bomb owner's manual. They've only got to exceed the latest in 1945 technology - for both the weapon AND the delivery system. Maybe they can't make a suitcase nuke or a dedicated strategic bomber, but putting a Big Gulp sized bomb bay in a 20 year old airliner would not take the greatest of scientific leaps. They may be crazy, but they are motivated and patient. If they need to wait a century for a bicycle-powered centrifuge to separate enough uranium, they will. Thinking that they're totally incapable of the feat is a foolish exercise in denial.
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
  • gunwalkergunwalker Member Posts: 479 Member
    cpj wrote: »
    Read my above post. They still wipe with their fingers. They cant be all that bright.

    That is the kind of thinking that gets people killed. The FBI gave no credence to credible threats prior to 9-11 because those rag heads were not intelligent enough to pull off something big.That was the conventional wisdom inside the bureau.
    It is a huge mistake to equate a cultural practice with our own standards of behavior. Ask any vietnam vet.
    We do not view the world as it is, but as we perceive it to be.
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    That they will eventually build a viable one is inevitable. That they will test it is inevitable. That they will eventually have a government crazy enough to use it is a given. But I still predict a few accidents along the way. From what I've read and seen of their program, safety isn't in the top ten of their list of priorities.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • mkk41mkk41 Banned Posts: 1,932 Senior Member
    Iranian missle launcher.

    iraq_scudlauncher-1.gif
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,877 Senior Member
    Interesting that BigSlug brought up algebra. It's a mathematics branch that the Arabs really brought into fruition.
    I'm just here for snark.
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    U-235 makes up a 0.711% of the naturally occurring uranium isotopes. The yellowcake must be processed to remove the uranium. Then the uranium must be converted to uranium hexa-fluoride to make it suitable for processing in HUGE banks of centrifuges to separate the U-235 from the other isotopes. Since the difference between U-235 and the most common U-238 is the weight of three neutrons, it takes a lot of passes through the centrifuges to separate the .0711% of U-235 from the 99.289% of the other isotopes, and there's plutonium in that mix, too. Processing plants have to be worried about 'hide-out' uranium in the piping and equipment; a large plating of U-235 could possibly become large enough to reach criticality on its own. That could become extremely exciting to anyone in close proximity.

    Get a sufficient quantity of U-235 in close proximity and it will reach critical mass and start an uncontrolled fission event. Slamming two hemispheres of it together at high speed is one way to cause the uncontrolled chain reaction explosion. Placing a sphere of it inside a large amount of explosive and detonating the explosive to form an implosion of the uranium and its uncontrolled fission is another. And adding H3 gas to enhance the explosion by its addition of neutrons to enhance fission is a whole nother proposition.

    Given their lack of respect for life and safety over there, I'm surprised that there haven't been reports of mass deaths of workers messing with that stuff. (I'm guessing that is going on, but is being kept quiet). Radiation is nasty stuff. You can't see, smell, or taste it, but it will kill quite efficiently. Inhaling radioactive isotopes in sufficient quantity will kill, and it doesn't take all that much. I kind of lied about not being able to see gamma radiation. If you are in a high enough gamma ray field, you 'see' a bright neon blue light. It's not that you actually 'see' a light; it's the interaction of the gamma rays with the fluid in your eyes that causes your retinas to 'see' the blue Cherenkov glow. Everything you look at has a blue glow like this while in the field. Pretty, ain't it?

    cerenkov.jpg

    Even with the help the Iranians are getting from Russia, China, and North Korea, I would not be surprised if they end up making a large hole where one of their research facilities are located. They are showing a lack of respect for what they are handling, and it will cost them dearly at some point. Better them than someone else, though.
    That is beautiful in an eerie sort of way. hmmm... Oh and the process of refining the U235, wasn't that the same reason that Openheimers bunch (sp?) turned to plutonium if I remember correctly?
  • casinoroyalecasinoroyale Member Posts: 68 Member
    N320AW wrote: »
    If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!

    I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?

    The answer is, no. A lot of Americans think that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the leader of Iran, and is nuts. They are correct in the latter category - he is nuts. However, he is not the leader of Iran. Iran is lead by the theocratic elites under the Ayatollah. Their sole goal is to preserve their rule. Ahmadinejad for them was just a convenient figure-head. He does all the sabre-rattling, while they hold the real power. And they will most certainly not attack Israel. Why? As you said, they aren't idiots. They know that they would get destroyed by Israel and America in retaliation. So why do they want the bomb? Multiple reasons. One is for safety. If Gaddafi had the bomb, one thing is for sure - NATO probably wouldn't have intervened. Nuclear weapons would keep Iran safe from outside threats (though not from internal threats). Another is status and brinksmanship - they want to be seen as a top power, and always want to get one up on their Saudi Arabian rivals. But for actual usage? Unlikely. Some are worried that if Iran gets the bomb it will end up with Al Queda. Unlikely, since Al Queda hates Iran and vice versa. When it comes to proliferation, I would worry more about Pakistan, a US ally, than Iran.
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