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robert38-55
Senior MemberPosts: 3,621 Senior Member
Is Iran close to the ICBM than we think?
robert38-55
Senior MemberPosts: 3,621 Senior Member
The USA and Iran are at odds over the proposed oil embargo sanctions. Any excuse to raise the prices at the pumps huh? Here is a quote from the article:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45832464/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
The EU is considering a ban — already in place in the United States — on imports of Iranian oil, although diplomats and traders say awareness is growing in the EU that such a ban could damage the bloc's economy without doing much to hurt Iran.
Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi said imposing sanctions on Iran's oil exports would lead to a leap in prices.
"Undoubtedly the price of crude will increase dramatically if sanctions are imposed on our oil ... It will reach at least over $200 per barrel," the Aseman weekly quoted Qasemi on Saturday as saying
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45832464/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/
"It is what it is":usa:
Replies
Iran has the capability to manufacture short to medium range stuff. You know, the type that could hit neighboring countries like, a'hmm ... Israel, but not intercontinental ballistic missles.
Nor do I believe it's sabre-rattling from Iran, either. I believe their goal is to acquire/manufacture a viable, deliverable nuclear device and the first time this will be confirmed, is when it's launched against Tel Aviv.
If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!
I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?
Yes. Yes they are.
Then we're in worse shape than I thought! :bang:
Yup, got to love a culture where a woman gets raped, and SHE is the one put to death for sex outside of marriage. The raper, is usually set free because she obviously seduced him into it and he is unable to control his primal instincts. Oh wait, she CAN get set free...by marrying her rapist. This happened very recently, a womans 10 year sentence was overturned when she agreed to marry one of her family members, the rapist, and father of her rape-child.
Or no doubt as the Iranians believe, mutually assured martyrdom......
Armadinijad has stated on more than one occassion that Iran's goal is to see Israel wiped off the map. He means it. They mean it. Diplomacy only comes from force with the Iranians. And for what it's worth, the US and the UK are regarded in the same breath as Israel. During the recent attack on the British embassy in Tehran, UK, US and Israeli flags were all burned at the same time. The attack was blamed on "students", but nothing happens in Iran, especially protests of any kind, unless state sanctioned.
The UK no longer has ostensibly, diplomatic relations with Iran.
Are the leaders of Iran that stupid? No, they are that fanatical......!!
Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons and can, believe me, take care of themselves.
Go for it Iran! So long. Virgins: Stand by! Your consorts may be on the way!
Jerry
As one posted said, they are not stupid just fanatical. A lot of the top leadership are fanatical "twelvers" meaning they await the return of the 12th imam who will return during a time of great chaos. The current president of Iran believes that the return can be hastened by creating the chaos . He has gone so far as to have a boulevard built just for the 12th Imam to traverse the city.
The question that is most difficult to answer is whether there are enough twelvers in power to control the nuclear weapon, assuming they develop it.
Jerry
The first bombs were inefficient
Making the proper high explosives and wiring them to detonate takes some pretty high tech stuff
Jerry
Remember the anthrax scare....
Jerry has it right, those three carriers are damn near 15 acres of prime US airport. ONE CARRIER has more air power than any NATIONS combined air assets. Not to mention the THREE Battle Groups. That is a lot of Cruise Missiles. **** is gonna be needing a deeper hole. I also agree with Chris, they still squat over a hole in the floor and wipe with their hands. Just not that bright.
Dad 5-31-13
U-235 makes up a 0.711% of the naturally occurring uranium isotopes. The yellowcake must be processed to remove the uranium. Then the uranium must be converted to uranium hexa-fluoride to make it suitable for processing in HUGE banks of centrifuges to separate the U-235 from the other isotopes. Since the difference between U-235 and the most common U-238 is the weight of three neutrons, it takes a lot of passes through the centrifuges to separate the .0711% of U-235 from the 99.289% of the other isotopes, and there's plutonium in that mix, too. Processing plants have to be worried about 'hide-out' uranium in the piping and equipment; a large plating of U-235 could possibly become large enough to reach criticality on its own. That could become extremely exciting to anyone in close proximity.
Get a sufficient quantity of U-235 in close proximity and it will reach critical mass and start an uncontrolled fission event. Slamming two hemispheres of it together at high speed is one way to cause the uncontrolled chain reaction explosion. Placing a sphere of it inside a large amount of explosive and detonating the explosive to form an implosion of the uranium and its uncontrolled fission is another. And adding H3 gas to enhance the explosion by its addition of neutrons to enhance fission is a whole nother proposition.
Given their lack of respect for life and safety over there, I'm surprised that there haven't been reports of mass deaths of workers messing with that stuff. (I'm guessing that is going on, but is being kept quiet). Radiation is nasty stuff. You can't see, smell, or taste it, but it will kill quite efficiently. Inhaling radioactive isotopes in sufficient quantity will kill, and it doesn't take all that much. I kind of lied about not being able to see gamma radiation. If you are in a high enough gamma ray field, you 'see' a bright neon blue light. It's not that you actually 'see' a light; it's the interaction of the gamma rays with the fluid in your eyes that causes your retinas to 'see' the blue Cherenkov glow. Everything you look at has a blue glow like this while in the field. Pretty, ain't it?
Even with the help the Iranians are getting from Russia, China, and North Korea, I would not be surprised if they end up making a large hole where one of their research facilities are located. They are showing a lack of respect for what they are handling, and it will cost them dearly at some point. Better them than someone else, though.
― Douglas Adams
Jerry
I'm a mathematical cripple. I failed first-year algebra not once, but twice - and actually put in some serious effort to succeed the second time. Mere mention of the word "polynomial" will cause my eyes to glaze over and my consciousness to lapse. My fingers are a commonly used addition tool.
So taking my own limitations into account, I ask; "What would it take to keep someone sufficiently motivated to sit through enough math, physics, and chemistry to build a nuclear bomb?"
Brilliance and curiosity got it done for Oppenheimer, but religious fanaticism will undoubtedly serve in a pinch. You don't need a genius anymore because the hard part - the science - has already been done. All they need is a clever nut-job with a copy of the Haynes or Chilton A-bomb owner's manual. They've only got to exceed the latest in 1945 technology - for both the weapon AND the delivery system. Maybe they can't make a suitcase nuke or a dedicated strategic bomber, but putting a Big Gulp sized bomb bay in a 20 year old airliner would not take the greatest of scientific leaps. They may be crazy, but they are motivated and patient. If they need to wait a century for a bicycle-powered centrifuge to separate enough uranium, they will. Thinking that they're totally incapable of the feat is a foolish exercise in denial.
"Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
That is the kind of thinking that gets people killed. The FBI gave no credence to credible threats prior to 9-11 because those rag heads were not intelligent enough to pull off something big.That was the conventional wisdom inside the bureau.
It is a huge mistake to equate a cultural practice with our own standards of behavior. Ask any vietnam vet.
― Douglas Adams
The answer is, no. A lot of Americans think that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the leader of Iran, and is nuts. They are correct in the latter category - he is nuts. However, he is not the leader of Iran. Iran is lead by the theocratic elites under the Ayatollah. Their sole goal is to preserve their rule. Ahmadinejad for them was just a convenient figure-head. He does all the sabre-rattling, while they hold the real power. And they will most certainly not attack Israel. Why? As you said, they aren't idiots. They know that they would get destroyed by Israel and America in retaliation. So why do they want the bomb? Multiple reasons. One is for safety. If Gaddafi had the bomb, one thing is for sure - NATO probably wouldn't have intervened. Nuclear weapons would keep Iran safe from outside threats (though not from internal threats). Another is status and brinksmanship - they want to be seen as a top power, and always want to get one up on their Saudi Arabian rivals. But for actual usage? Unlikely. Some are worried that if Iran gets the bomb it will end up with Al Queda. Unlikely, since Al Queda hates Iran and vice versa. When it comes to proliferation, I would worry more about Pakistan, a US ally, than Iran.