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Is Iran close to the ICBM than we think?

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  • casinoroyalecasinoroyale Member Posts: 68 Member
    Interesting that BigSlug brought up algebra. It's a mathematics branch that the Arabs really brought into fruition.
    Indeed, Arabs did develop algebra, and made tons of advancements in plenty of other fields. During the Crusades, the Arab states were wealthy and modern (for the time) whilst the Christian Europeans were the backwater barbarians. However, the Arab Golden Age ended due to various factors. The Caliphates were conquered by the Mongols and Ottoman Turks. And anyways, Iranians aren't Arabs - they are Persians.
  • iJOakesMiliiJOakesMili Member Posts: 36 Member
    N320AW wrote: »
    If Iran were to launch and hit Tel Aviv with a nuclear warhead, that is what is known as MAD (mutually assured destruction)!

    I know the leaders in Iran are not very smart, but are they that stupid?

    If they don't launch it themselves they will pass it off to the Hezbollah. It's pretty much agreed around where I'm at that, we're going to go in there, it's just a matter of when and if Israel will let us know first before they do as well.

    I'm actually preparing a briefing on this as my final project for tech school. It started off in the 70's as them earnestly trying to get reactors for peaceful power. When they built their first reactor, the 1000+ MW it freed up about 1.18billion gallons of oil. The problem now lies in that they are moving and have moved facilities underground, hidden and better protected from military aggression. After the french failed to uphold their end of the deal and provide Iran with the 10% of power and fuel they are entitled to they made a facility to produce their own. Which is now producing instead of fuel, weapon material. The whole fear isn't that they are currently building the weapon, it's that they are building break away potential from the NPT and have the supplies and know-how to create a bomb within 2months of going off the radar.



    I know my information isn't presented the best, here is my source however, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf73.html
  • DoctorWhoDoctorWho Senior Member Posts: 9,496 Senior Member
    At least there are a few obstacles in the way of Iran making viable ICBMs.

    The paper trail for the materials needed and the time it takes to fuel an ICBM and the attendant and significant / unique signature that can be detected by satellite would be ample warning.
    Added to that are the many paid moles in that part of the World too.
    Flight time is another factor.
    "There is some evil in all of us, Doctor, even you, the Valeyard is an amalgamation of the darker sides of your nature, somewhere between your twelfth and final incarnation, and I may say, you do not improve with age. Founding member of the G&A forum since 1996
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    That is beautiful in an eerie sort of way. hmmm... Oh and the process of refining the U235, wasn't that the same reason that Openheimers bunch (sp?) turned to plutonium if I remember correctly?

    Doesn't matter whether the material is uranium or plutonium. The work has to be done removing the fissile isotopes from the fissionable. Doesn't matter a whole lot whether it's uranium or plutonium, they both require a lot of centrifuge time to separate. The weight of only three neutrons separate fissile U-235 from fissionable U-238. Neutrons don't weigh all that much.

    When the U.S. was working on the bomb, they separated a lot of uranium at Oak Ridge to get the good stuff, U-235, out. This also separated the plutonium out. They separated out the fissile plutonium as a byproduct of the uranium separation process. Yellow cake uranium ore contains both uranium and plutonium. Nothing odd about that, as the natural decay of uranium produces neutrons that bind with other uranium atoms and produce plutonium by alpha decay; neutron in the uranium nucleus spits out an electron and the neutron becomes a proton, and the nucleus now becomes a plutonium atom. Nucleon sex change! :tooth:
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
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  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    No one needs an ICBM to deliver a nuke into the US. Do you know how many direct flights we have into the US from other countries that don't particularly like us, staffed with easily bought security? Anyone think Chavez would have tough time buying into this plan? ICBMs are weapons for war. Terrorists are not warriors.

    Freighter transfers bomb to U.S. registered yacht at sea. Yacht sails up Potomac river and detonates device across from the Lincoln Memorial. Or a container ship brings one in to one of the big shipping ports and device is detonated.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
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  • SirGeorgeKillianSirGeorgeKillian Senior Member Posts: 5,463 Senior Member
    Right, a well placed EMP could be so much more deadly than any thermo nuclear attack...
    Unless life also hands you water and sugar, your lemonade is gonna suck!
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    I'm in love with a Glock
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    Airborne nuke in a direct flight from Caracas on approach to JFK or Reagan National. Those are the ones that keeps me up at night.

    While New Yawk City is a prime target for such shenanigans, the 'Holy Grail' so to speak is still Washington D.C. Taking out the entire leadership of the country in one blow would be a more devastating blow for the terrorists against us.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • SirGeorgeKillianSirGeorgeKillian Senior Member Posts: 5,463 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    While New Yawk City is a prime target for such shenanigans, the 'Holy Grail' so to speak is still Washington D.C. Taking out the entire leadership of the country in one blow would be a more devastating blow for the terrorists against us.



    Dont think we would be missing much....
    Unless life also hands you water and sugar, your lemonade is gonna suck!
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    I'm in love with a Glock
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    Never said they were smart. :tooth:
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • iJOakesMiliiJOakesMili Member Posts: 36 Member
    D.C. Would be a major blow to moral for the general public. Cause a loss of faith in the military ("if we can't defend our HQ how can we defend them" type of deal). If I'm informed correctly and I'm going back on something a T.I. told me during a briefing in BMT, Modern nukes have EMP effects built into them natually. If they some how detonate it in High altitude they can knock out our sats, take away GPS or Coms..... Everything has back lash tough, they believed 9/11 would cripple American ego and pride and cause us to bicker and fight each other. Instead it brought about the biggest surge of patriotism in my memory. The terrorist are very smart, that's the issue. It isn't the ground fighters that we have to worry about, it's the bosses. It's a mental arms race.
  • 104RFAST104RFAST Senior Member Posts: 1,281 Senior Member
    Israel's government announced today they think Iran will have a nuke devise within a year. The Mossad Chief was in Washington
    last week meeting with our leaders, wonder what the were discussing. I'm betting October?
  • iJOakesMiliiJOakesMili Member Posts: 36 Member
    I got some information from a *source*, the talks were more trying to get them to hold off until after election year at least. Israel isn't going to wait patiently while Iran builds a device to destroy them. They've attacked plenty of reactors in the middle east before and have their own Fission bombs. I don't know if they have Hydrogen or Fussion
  • 104RFAST104RFAST Senior Member Posts: 1,281 Senior Member
    Google "12th Imam " you'll understand Iran's motive, twelver Shiism represents about 85% of Shiite
    Islam
    englishbob wrote: »
    Or no doubt as the Iranians believe, mutually assured martyrdom......

    Armadinijad has stated on more than one occassion that Iran's goal is to see Israel wiped off the map. He means it. They mean it. Diplomacy only comes from force with the Iranians. And for what it's worth, the US and the UK are regarded in the same breath as Israel. During the recent attack on the British embassy in Tehran, UK, US and Israeli flags were all burned at the same time. The attack was blamed on "students", but nothing happens in Iran, especially protests of any kind, unless state sanctioned.

    The UK no longer has ostensibly, diplomatic relations with Iran.

    Are the leaders of Iran that stupid? No, they are that fanatical......!!
  • gunwalkergunwalker Member Posts: 479 Member
    The EMP effect of a bomb detonated at altitude would be catastrophic. We would instantly be living in the very distant past before electricity. Our electronics are not shielded. We could not get fuel because pumps need electricity. Nor could grocery stores operate. There would not be communications of any kind except your voice. Civil society would very rapidly disintegrate as people realized how desperate the situation is.Vehicles would not run. Home generators would not run. As was suggested,civilian planes piloted from Venezuela, or a missile launched from a freighter ,and on and on. The reality is that we are very vulnerable.A bit of good news is that the pentagon has realized this for years and has been working to shield military systems from EMP . Civilians are not so lucky.
    We do not view the world as it is, but as we perceive it to be.
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    How long do the affects from an EMP last for???
  • gunwalkergunwalker Member Posts: 479 Member
    I understand the effects could last for years. Not sure if there is a definitive number.
    We do not view the world as it is, but as we perceive it to be.
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 27,457 Senior Member
    How long do the affects from an EMP last for???

    An EMP causes an overload condition of both high current and voltage. It burns out electrical and electronic circuitry. The effect doesn't last but a few seconds, but in that time it can burn out generators, motors, all unprotected solid state electronics, and just about anything electrical. The old USSR kept making vacuum tube equipment for the military long after solid state devices were in common use as vacuum tubes are much less susceptible to an EMP than the solid state gear.

    I'm not even going to try to explain how electricity is generated other than to say that electrical current can be generated two ways; move a conductor through a magnetic field, or vary(pulse) the magnetic field around a conductor. The EMP pulse does it by the latter method as a huge magnetic field is generated when a nuclear device detonates.
      I refuse to answer that question on the grounds that I don't know the answer”
    ― Douglas Adams
  • ghostsniper1ghostsniper1 Banned Posts: 2,645 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    An EMP causes an overload condition of both high current and voltage. It burns out electrical and electronic circuitry. The effect doesn't last but a few seconds, but in that time it can burn out generators, motors, all unprotected solid state electronics, and just about anything electrical. The old USSR kept making vacuum tube equipment for the military long after solid state devices were in common use as vacuum tubes are much less susceptible to an EMP than the solid state gear.

    I'm not even going to try to explain how electricity is generated other than to say that electrical current can be generated two ways; move a conductor through a magnetic field, or vary(pulse) the magnetic field around a conductor. The EMP pulse does it by the latter method as a huge magnetic field is generated when a nuclear device detonates.
    Ahhh. I understand electronics pretty well. So it messes with the field of circuitry enough to literally obliterate its operation. So why wouldn't a person be able to fix, say a generator? It is solid copper windings like an electric motor? How does an EMP screw that up?
  • JayhawkerJayhawker Moderator Posts: 18,118 Senior Member
    How long do the affects from an EMP last for???

    Read "One Second After" by William R. Forstchen - it will give you a great idea of the impact of EMP and the effect on society...

    If it's got Solid State electronics it's hosed...older pre-solid state vehicles/generators/ etc will work fine...
    Sharps Model 1874 - "The rifle that made the west safe for Winchester"
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