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Domains, and where we are in them. (losing)

centermass556centermass556 Senior MemberPosts: 3,534 Senior Member
There is a point to this:

A little Background:
According to Joint Doctrine, the US military vies for dominance in 5 areas - Traditionally there were three and we have been very slow on the uptake and the recognition of the new two. Well, new to the US, but occupied by near peer competitors for a while. The Domains are:

Land
Air
Sea
Space
Information/Cyber

The Military doctrine used to obtain dominance in each domain has always been overmatch. In other words, we have relied on having the best equipment (technologically advanced), quality within the quantity, and key strategic points. It is highly questionable if we still have the most state of the art equipment. What we are seeing around the globe tells us that we no longer own the night, are the not leader in the UAV race, and we sure as heck do not have the numbers we should to project the power we are trying to project. We have a 15 division and 7 Fleet Strategy with kinda 9 divisions, and kinda 5 fleets. We have one, and only one, Tank division in the United States Army. Our Mech Infantry is out gunned, but we are working on that. 2d ACR already has the new Bradly and Stryker guns. 

We are loosing the cyber fight. You remember how Mike Tyson used to dominate the ring with not real competition in sight? Our Near Peer competitors, and state actors, are Mike Tyson. We are the rest of the heavy weight world. 


Now for the So What.
SPACE - The final frontier.

We are getting it handed to us in the Space race also. While Elon Musk is doing really great things with VTOL rockets and putting cars in space, as a nation we are behind. The Chinese placing a rely satellite in deep orbit and then landing on the back side of the moon just demonstrated how far behind the curve we have fallen. We have no idea what either of those payloads fully contained. China also has plans to place low orbit geo-synchronous over major cities to replicate the full moon illumination, and illuminate cities in the absence of street lamps and other energy spending equipment. 

Russia, more so than China, has figured out the game. Mostly because we have already played this game with them once. So far, Russia has been able to draw us into two contested areas of proxy conflict and resource expenditure - Syria and Eastern Europe. And, our thinness and outdated equipment is showing. 
I don't believe our economy can sustain another area of friction, I don't believe the military can either. If Russia is smart, in Tehran they will have the Iranians convince the Taliban to keep fighting and help them poor it on. While doing that, they will also move into South America again and strengthen ties with Cuba.

China is gaining steam with their version of the Greater Southeast Asia Prosperity Sphere (the same thing Japan tried in the 1930s). And Nixon is dead. 

"To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
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Replies

  • MichakavMichakav Senior Member Posts: 2,732 Senior Member
    We are certainly being outmaneuvered in many ways.
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    Is something bad going to happen to us if we're not the king of the hill in military might????
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,715 Senior Member
    yes
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    What will happen to us????
  • orchidmanorchidman Senior Member Posts: 8,111 Senior Member
    What will happen to us????
    I guess we get to learn the lessons of previous wars all over again.
    Tarriffs and embargoes only go so far, you also need a strong military presence/force to back up more peaceful means.
    Still enjoying the trip of a lifetime and making the best of what I have.....
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    Porchidman said:
    What will happen to us????
    I guess we get to learn the lessons of previous wars all over again.
    Tarriffs and embargoes only go so far, you also need a strong military presence/force to back up more peaceful means.
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    It seems like an administrative consolidation, house cleaning, down sizing etc., to refocus on quality to replace quantity would do wonders???

    However, the defense indrustry has embedded itself throught the country so that any large scale change could never clear the legislative hurdles.
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,923 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #9
    Being part of that work force for 20 years in uniform and now as of the other day 19 years as a civilian, I can say alpha has it pretty close.  What he has not been around long enough to know  is that the contractors are the problem. That is a simple but long explanation.  Readers digest version is: at the top they are convinced contractors can do it better and cheaper.  They do it by writing contracts that do not consider overtime, cost reimbursements, and at face value paying personnel a higher wage.  As the competition moves in wages decrease and personnel turnover with less experienced people take over.  With full time Government employees while face vale on paper is higher they are not.  Less pay but more benefits, but way less turnover and skilled workers get better.   The problem with cut backs is,  you give a GS-15 or SES the mandate to cut back say 10%.  Does anyone think that they will cut back their SES and GS-13-15 buddies?
    NO, they cut out the GS-05 - 09 workers.  The ones that know how to do the work and are good at it and leave the so called supervisors and directors who may be good at writing and such, have no idea how to make things work.  A symphony only needs one conductor, but lots of people playing instruments well.

    Fast forward to the same SES and GS-15 people deciding what equipment to purchase, what weapon system, or what network security to purchase and base that on what they can gain, and we have what we have today.  Bottom line is, nobody really knows how to do much anymore.
    Then have a President and Congress that all but shuts down NASA and poof we are behind everyone.

    In the Military there are too many of what we used to call PX soldiers, they look great, max their PT test, but can not march troops fire a weapon and sure can't teach others.
    We need more like the originator of this post in uniform and as leaders











    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,798 Senior Member
    We were the biggest winners in WWII because of our manufacturing. We entered the war, late, and our military was under strength, and poorly supplied. Fortunately, we finally realized what was at stake, and government, business, and the work force put most of their differences aside and eventually put manufacturing into hyper-drive, for four years. The ability to roll out a bomber every hour and a ship every day saved the day for our allies, and with our support, kept the fighting on foreign soil. We aren't likely to ever be able to win in this way, again.

    Our inability to keep secrets will prevent us from bluffing, eventually, and future battles will have to be won on the battlefields, to a greater extent than we have been accustomed to for many years. This means that our nuclear options are nearer to the forefront, and if other countries ever decide that they have an advantage in that arena, we may find ourselves left with the choice of capitulating or rolling the dice on who will survive a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Likely, that means being the first to strike.

    Dr. Strangelove, anybody? Maybe I'm just too immersed in the Cold War scenario of my youth, but this all looks strangely familiar.
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,923 Senior Member
    Once againe alpha is pretty close. As for rewarding workers with skills that work hard, look how NSPS worked out. High rankers took care of their buddies and threw a bone to others.  This new system we are just now entering, time will tell
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • JayhawkerJayhawker Moderator Posts: 16,928 Senior Member
    To take this contractor thing down to it's most basic level...
    We used to have a guy who made the rounds picking up he trash every day...his job was contracted out and he was replaced by 4 people,  3 picking up their own specific type of trash and one who followed them around to ensure they were doing their job.

    Anyone who buys into the "cost savings" of contractors doing formerly government jobs just hasn't actually dealt with it...
    Sharps Model 1874 - "The rifle that made the west safe for Winchester"
  • JayhawkerJayhawker Moderator Posts: 16,928 Senior Member
    One of the biggest issues has to do with who you MUST hire as a contractor...it goes far beyond the low bid business...it also has to do with WHO owns the business...if it's minority/female owned...even if they can only marginally fulfill the contract.  We dealt with two security contractors who created fly by night businesses who within six months had guards whose paychecks were bouncing and not a single bank in the area would cash checks generated by the business...
    Sharps Model 1874 - "The rifle that made the west safe for Winchester"
  • das68das68 Posts: 662 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #14
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.







  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,534 Senior Member
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 16,128 Senior Member
    Jayhawker said:
    One of the biggest issues has to do with who you MUST hire as a contractor...it goes far beyond the low bid business...it also has to do with WHO owns the business...if it's minority/female owned...even if they can only marginally fulfill the contract.  We dealt with two security contractors who created fly by night businesses who within six months had guards whose paychecks were bouncing and not a single bank in the area would cash checks generated by the business...
    Yep that's a huge one. A disabled veteran, minority, woman owned small business can basically take any contract they want regardless of their ability to do the work. Most of the time they bid without any staff and hope they can hire at least marginally competent people to fulfill the letter of the contract. 
    From my experience in construction, that is all they do around here. There are companies where the only expertise they have is the ability to jump through the government hoops to get the work and comply with the documentation. From there, they subcontract the work.
    Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.
    -Thomas Paine
  • das68das68 Posts: 662 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #17
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    be my guest.
    what do they know about anything?
    they are just a world renowned thingy




  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,923 Senior Member
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    I totally agree with CM,  where the heck did they get their data from?
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • das68das68 Posts: 662 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #19
    Diver43 said:
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    I totally agree with CM,  where the heck did they get their data from?
    it's a big wide world thing

  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    Heck the BBC interviewed an author of an extensive book on China one night. The correspondent tried to make China look like a major military threat. The author got so PO'd he almost terminated. The correspondent at least let him have his say and kept the talk going to conclusion.

    So yea, there's room for discrepancies.
  • das68das68 Posts: 662 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #21

    So yea, there's room for discrepancies.
    the uk is in second place, pre brexit
    how good would we be otherwise



  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    Geopolitical influence differs from military might. Im not well versed in those complexities.

    I do believe that many small countries without Theodore Roosevelt's big stick exert a great deal of influence.
  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,534 Senior Member
    I would argue that Geopolitical influence includes the ability to apply Military power, as need, to deter near peer competitors from taking over items of national and strategic importance. Think about our presence in South West Asia, we would not have the influence and ability to maintain relations if we did not have the military power to secure that influence and those relationships.
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,534 Senior Member
    das68 said:
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    be my guest.
    what do they know about anything?
    they are just a world renowned thingy



    das68 said:
    das68 said:
    We can no longer project forceful influence if we're not the most powerful???

    Hold back those tears.






    I could write a thesis challenging the assertions and measurement criteria of that study, specifically in the way they measured China and Russia
    be my guest.
    what do they know about anything?
    they are just a world renowned thingy



    So, the folks that put that together do have a pretty substantial pedigrees, and some of the names I have seen, but it doesn't mean that they are not base. The Hurricane Hunters of NOAA are the Subject Matter Experts of their field and are off base sometimes too.

    When you look at their criteria for some of their measurements, they ignore some important factors in favor of things they believe to be more favorable. And in some instances, they are just flat out wrong.

    How in the world can the not believe that China has Technological Prowess equal to that of the US, or even in a biased opinion at least close to the US?  They don't rank china high because they base it on criteria such as University Ranking, Access to Communication, and other nonsense factors. China has clearly demonstrated the Technological ability and industrial base on the past five years. Their Cyber Capability is un matched. They recently placed a deep orbit Satellite into space, and a rover on the dark side of the moon. They are far ahead in their planning for a Mars mission. Having a Nobel Laurette does not mean you are technologically advanced. 

    This follows on to their judgment of the Military Power. China's Military base is damn near the population of New York and LA. Their Cyber force is the size of our Army. China has a Navy that is projecting power in the South China Sea. 

    Expanding the reach of China outside of the South East Asia Sphere, China has secured resources in Iraq, Africa, and currently has over $300 Billion wrapped up in South America. How that doesn't scream Significant world power, I have no idea. 

    China also possess UAV, Flight, Vision, and Weapon Technology that is at the same level as the US and surpassing most NATO countries. China's Defense spending dwarfs the UK and German spending budget. However, Chinese spending is nowhere close to US Spending. But, it doesn't have to be. China is not fighting two conflicts, while simultaneously projecting significant land and air power in eastern europe.

    I could go on, but I think that gets to the point.




    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    I was thinkink more about China when I typed that. The author interviewed by the BBC (Im sorry I can't recall his name) made very good points about how militarily small they were compared to the USA. Yet they're influence is great enough to be the topic of tremendous concern.

    Obviously the military part is imperative to certain types of influence. Russia's Crimean campaign comes to mind. But could their interference in our elections be more powerful than their regional aggression? I realize that ciber influence is military, but I don't think of it as might.
  • RugerFanRugerFan Senior Member Posts: 2,295 Senior Member
    edited January 2019 #26
    You may not think if cyber capability as "might ", but it most certainly is. So much  "stuff", commercial and military, is based on/dependant upon interconnectivity. If you can hack and shut that down, it's as good as a hit with a 500lb bomb or 155 artillery round. 

    There's no telling how deep into our various networks China and Russia have gotten.
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    That is a very good point. It appears to me as a mostly ignorant civilian, that past conventional thinking may be becoming archaic before recognition is possible???
  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,749 Senior Member
    I would likely be impossible to exaggerate the importance of the strength of the American dollar.
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    CM, I've been outta the game a few years (working with the Army), but the mechanized infantry divisions number of M1 Abrams tanks and an armored division were just a few by MTO&E. 
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,715 Senior Member
    delete 
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • BigslugBigslug Senior Member Posts: 8,262 Senior Member
    Is something bad going to happen to us if we're not the king of the hill in military might????
    If I were a foreign power, I think my platform for dealing with the U.S. would be as follows:

    1.  Do not give the U.S. a unifying motivator, such as Pearl Harbor or 9/11.

    2.  Ignore the U.S. and do what I want.

    And that's it.  The U.S. has the potential for radical changes in government every 2 years, and is divided into camps that cannot agree on the pallor of poo.  Don't piss off the U.S. directly, and the mob won't care if you invade your neighbor or genocide half your population - at least not enough to generate allocation of resources against you.
    WWJMBD?

    "Nothing is safe from stupid." - Zee
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