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Bozo has been struggling for years to sell himself as everybody's favorite Texan, and it is a tough sell, with his 'snowflake' demeanor. He has mostly won over the younger urban lefties in Texas, which now might give him Austin, some of the bigger cities, and border towns, but he still needs a fairly large handful of perpetually confused 'good old boys,' to get him over the line. He has a good 'likeability' factor that can win him friends, if his flapping doesn't cause him to lift-off into the atmosphere, and burn up on re-entry.
He gave Ted Cruz some competition, early on, in his last Senate run, before suffering from the Hilary Clinton syndrome - over-exposure. It's a tricky maneuver, to spend all of those millions of DNC dollars, without putting yourself out there so much that people start laughing at your attention-getting antics.