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Hurricane Dorian (9/2019)

JasonMPDJasonMPD Senior MemberPosts: 6,535 Senior Member
This is poised to be pretty bad.  There is virtually no counteracting weather in its path and it's breathing warm ocean water the whole way.  Current predictions indicate my home area will be Category 2/3 and my work area a solid 3 with gusts above that.

I'm seriously hoping it goes farther inland to Okeechobee before moving north to weaken it or the eye stays 30 miles+ off the coast while moving north.

Best of luck to my fellow east coast Floridians.  I will be incommunicado from power-outage until EOC lifts emergency operations in my jurisdiction.  All affected by this reach out when you can and say hey. 
“There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” – Will Rogers
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Replies

  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,635 Senior Member
    Stay safe. First responders are the front line in this crap.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    Like I said in the other thread, I'm waiting to see what the darn thing does as "they" don't know. I haven't seen an update on the European model in a while, but I'm completely ignoring the talking heads and hysteria mongers and paying attention to the NOAA/Hurricane center forecast. They did have it turning hard right over Okeechobee until the last update where they now have it going up 95! Its just too far out at this point.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • JasonMPDJasonMPD Senior Member Posts: 6,535 Senior Member
    zorba said:
    Like I said in the other thread, I'm waiting to see what the darn thing does as "they" don't know. I haven't seen an update on the European model in a while, but I'm completely ignoring the talking heads and hysteria mongers and paying attention to the NOAA/Hurricane center forecast. They did have it turning hard right over Okeechobee until the last update where they now have it going up 95! Its just too far out at this point.

    I use the My Radar app which imports NOAA data. The television is always armageddon.
    “There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” – Will Rogers
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    Yep. TEOTWAWKI, every time. I don't even turn the TV on or look at their reports.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • NNNN Senior Member Posts: 24,634 Senior Member
    Just remember if you wait too much more you might get caught in a traffic jam on the highway.
    We stayed for the last one, had we gone, we could have not gotten back because of the flooding.

    Be safe and wear trousers! 
    Shut up-----KAREN; OK Cynthia
  • CHIRO1989CHIRO1989 Senior Member Posts: 12,419 Senior Member
    You FL guys are looking at a Cat 4 now, good luck folks, I am praying for you.
    I take no pleasure in the death of the wicked, but rather that they turn away from their ways and live. Eze 33:11
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    And again, I've only seen "Cat 4" on hysteria monger's pages. That's not to say that it can't or won't happen, but even NOAA isn't saying that that I've seen. Until they are, I'm assuming Cat 3.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • CHIRO1989CHIRO1989 Senior Member Posts: 12,419 Senior Member
    zorba said:
    And again, I've only seen "Cat 4" on hysteria monger's pages. That's not to say that it can't or won't happen, but even NOAA isn't saying that that I've seen. Until they are, I'm assuming Cat 3.
    I got a text on my phone from the weather channel, it must be true!
    I take no pleasure in the death of the wicked, but rather that they turn away from their ways and live. Eze 33:11
  • 10canyon5310canyon53 Member Posts: 2,066 Senior Member
    If the track keeps shifting East with every update we could get off easy......if........
  • 10canyon5310canyon53 Member Posts: 2,066 Senior Member
    edited August 2019 #11
    zorba said:
    And again, I've only seen "Cat 4" on hysteria monger's pages. That's not to say that it can't or won't happen, but even NOAA isn't saying that that I've seen. Until they are, I'm assuming Cat 3.
    At the moment the NOAA website is showing landfall just North of Ft. Pierce with winds of 140 mph.

  • earlyagainearlyagain Posts: 6,728 Senior Member
    140 mph ain't that far short of armageddon.
  • JKPJKP Senior Member Posts: 2,228 Senior Member
    The storm is currently at cat 4 strength with no signs of weakening before landfall. Bahamas won't weaken it. 
  • 10canyon5310canyon53 Member Posts: 2,066 Senior Member
    11:00 pm update from NOAA is out and the track has shifted East again......now the only landfall in Florida is the eye just clipping Cape Canaveral on its way North......let's hope this trend continues and it stays offshore.
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,648 Senior Member
    The 2300 update looked better for me but not so good for you guys.  Jason be careful out there. Zorba you have a few days to get them shutters up. All the models to include the European have it coming in just south of you guys and making a hard right turn.
    We have a few days yet, no telling what this dude may do
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    11:00 pm update from NOAA is out and the track has shifted East again......now the only landfall in Florida is the eye just clipping Cape Canaveral on its way North......let's hope this trend continues and it stays offshore.
    Yea, I saw that too - like its gonna bounce off of Melbourne and clip the Cape. I too hope it continues, we'll see what the 5 AM model says.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • JasonMPDJasonMPD Senior Member Posts: 6,535 Senior Member
    zorba said:
    11:00 pm update from NOAA is out and the track has shifted East again......now the only landfall in Florida is the eye just clipping Cape Canaveral on its way North......let's hope this trend continues and it stays offshore.
    Yea, I saw that too - like its gonna bounce off of Melbourne and clip the Cape. I too hope it continues, we'll see what the 5 AM model says.
    I'm not greedy and I'm realistic.  If the eye can just pass off shore 40-45 miles, the peripheral wind bands won't exceed much over a Cat 2. 

    I'll take that over the brunt of it everytime. 
    “There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” – Will Rogers
  • ojrojr Senior Member Posts: 1,069 Senior Member
    It is pretty big news here as well. hope it reduces alot before it gets to you.
    Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    JasonMPD said:
    zorba said:
    11:00 pm update from NOAA is out and the track has shifted East again......now the only landfall in Florida is the eye just clipping Cape Canaveral on its way North......let's hope this trend continues and it stays offshore.
    Yea, I saw that too - like its gonna bounce off of Melbourne and clip the Cape. I too hope it continues, we'll see what the 5 AM model says.
    I'm not greedy and I'm realistic.  If the eye can just pass off shore 40-45 miles, the peripheral wind bands won't exceed much over a Cat 2. 

    I'll take that over the brunt of it everytime. 
    At the moment, the eastward trend continues - its now well offshore. Let's hope that's what really happens.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • Make_My_DayMake_My_Day Senior Member Posts: 7,635 Senior Member
    The latest is that it will hit north of Port St. Lucie and take a hard right turn going up the coast. The "eye' is wound tight and 30 miles out from the eye is supposed to be just tropical force winds instead of a cat something. If that happens, my area will be barely touched. We live 60 miles from the ocean. Thank goodness I couldn't afford waterfront when we built this place.
    JOE MCCARTHY WAS RIGHT:
    THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE NEW COMMUNISTS!
  • CaliFFLCaliFFL Senior Member Posts: 5,486 Senior Member
    edited August 2019 #21
    Kidding aside, you guys stay safe. 


    When our governing officials dismiss due process as mere semantics, when they exercise powers they don’t have and ignore duties they actually bear, and when we let them get away with it, we have ceased to be our own rulers.

    Adam J. McCleod


  • jbp-ohiojbp-ohio Senior Member Posts: 10,125 Senior Member
    My stepson is in Gainesville....... I've been sending him memes all day.


    "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." Thomas Jefferson
  • jbp-ohiojbp-ohio Senior Member Posts: 10,125 Senior Member

    "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." Thomas Jefferson
  • JasonMPDJasonMPD Senior Member Posts: 6,535 Senior Member
    Reporting in. Southeastern coastal region folks stay safe!  I'll hop on and let y'all know how it's going during my off shift time.
    “There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” – Will Rogers
  • Diver43Diver43 Senior Member Posts: 10,648 Senior Member
    Jason I know it's your job, but dont forget to keep yourself as safe as possible
    Logistics cannot win a war, but its absence or inadequacy can cause defeat. FM100-5
  • Miss MaryMiss Mary Senior Member Posts: 728 Senior Member
    Prayers for all our Florida folks as this keeps developing.  Stay as safe as you can, please. :/
  • SpkSpk Senior Member Posts: 3,856 Senior Member
    CaliFFL said:
    Kidding aside, you guys stay safe. 


    Based on the rotation, I would call that one a super cyclone.
    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience -- Mark Twain
    How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and [how] hard it is to undo that work again! -- Mark Twain

  • SpkSpk Senior Member Posts: 3,856 Senior Member
    jbp-ohio said:
    My stepson is in Gainesville....... I've been sending him memes all day.


    Removing pork from government is tougher than it looks.
    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience -- Mark Twain
    How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and [how] hard it is to undo that work again! -- Mark Twain

  • zorbazorba Senior Member Posts: 23,394 Senior Member
    edited September 2019 #29
    Have the guns all packed up for fast evac if warranted.
    -Zorba, "The Veiled Male"

    "If you get it and didn't work for it, someone else worked for it and didn't get it..."
  • SpkSpk Senior Member Posts: 3,856 Senior Member
    In all seriousness, pray for the folks in the Bahamas, they're getting pounded!
    Cat 5 winds of 185 mph! That's like getting hit by a F3 tornado that won't go away.
    They're gonna need help when this is over.

    Hurricane Cat Scale
    Tornado F-Scale


    Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience -- Mark Twain
    How easy it is to make people believe a lie, and [how] hard it is to undo that work again! -- Mark Twain

  • CaliFFLCaliFFL Senior Member Posts: 5,486 Senior Member
    I promise I’ll never complain about snow again. It’s inconvenient, not potentially lethal.

    Zorba - good thinking regarding your guns. We had a forest fire scare a couple years ago. I kept my cherished guns in cases next to the pet carriers. 
    When our governing officials dismiss due process as mere semantics, when they exercise powers they don’t have and ignore duties they actually bear, and when we let them get away with it, we have ceased to be our own rulers.

    Adam J. McCleod


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