This is going to be a very close Presidential Race this year ain't it?

robert38-55robert38-55 Senior MemberPosts: 3,621 Senior Member
From what I have been seeing on the new channels, and I know some of them can't be trusted to report the truth, but never the less, it looks like to me, that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney is going to be extremely close. Ohio, and Flordia and other swing states are showing that Obama might be ahead. And whats up with all the early voting this year. I thought US elections were to be held on Nov 7, as per our US Constitution.

Some are saying that this early voting is going to have some effect on who wins this year. Early voting AKA advance polling or voting:
Early voting is similar to "no-excuse" absentee voting. In many U.S. states the period varies between four and fifty days prior to Election Day. Early voting in person is allowed with no excuse required in 31 U.S. states, with an excuse in 3, and not at all in 16. Absentee voting by mail is allowed in 28 states, with an excuse in 22. No-excuse permanent absentee voting is allowed in 4 states
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_voting
"It is what it is":usa:

Replies

  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,588 Senior Member
    Still a good amount of time, but unless Romney really kills the debates or something major comes out that hurts Obama this thing is looking like its over. Objectively speeking I find that more often than not Republicans are better campaigners than Democrats, but Romney is running a TERRIBLE campaign! He makes John Kerry look like a winner!
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    This election reminds me a lot of 2008: a candidate who's chosen based on "electability" over most anything else.
    A vice-presidential nominee who's young and more appealing to the base than the presidential nominee.
    A presidential nominee who's support is more because he's not Obama than because of who he is.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • beartrackerbeartracker Senior Member Posts: 3,116 Senior Member
    Romney will win and be our next president. I am sure some will remind me of this post if my prediction is not spot on. :jester:
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,588 Senior Member
    This election reminds me a lot of 2008: a candidate who's chosen based on "electability" over most anything else.
    A vice-presidential nominee who's young and more appealing to the base than the presidential nominee.
    A presidential nominee who's support is more because he's not Obama than because of who he is.

    I think it's more like 2004. You have a generally unpopular incumbent going against a boring, out of touch challenger who is unable to excite his base or connect with the general public who is running a weak campaign. Honestly I know I'm :deadhorse: on this, but I just can't get over how much Romney reminds me of Kerry in all the wrong ways.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • breamfisherbreamfisher Senior Member Posts: 13,051 Senior Member
    I said this on another forum: Romney is John McCain with Al Gore's tender personality and John Kerry's everyman appeal.
    Overkill is underrated.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,552 Senior Member
    Romney will win because Obama has harmed the country and most folks believe he will finish it off in four more years.

    Forget what pollsters say. They, like the media, are in the bag for socialism, and are using their polls to discourage Republicans and get them to stay home. There is no underhanded trick that will not be used.
  • bullsi1911bullsi1911 Moderator Posts: 9,666 Senior Member
    It shouldn't be, but it will be close.

    Obama has made more mistakes leading up to this election than anyone can count, but nothing seems to hurt him. They called Reagan the "Teflon President" for nothing sticking to him, Obama should be the Kevlar President. Stuff hits him, but does not hurt him.
    1- "You Didn't Build That"
    2- 'No I Can't' change Washington from the inside
    3- "Bumps in the Road"
    4- Concern about Iranian Nukes is 'Noise'
    5- Snubbing Israel over and over and over and over
    6- Going on "The View" instead of... well, doing his job
    7- "The attacks are not terrorism. Wait, maybe, No, they arent... ok, FINE. They are. And we knew for a week"
    8- No Security briefings leading up to embassy attacks
    9- Not securing the burned out Embassy, CNN finding the fallen ambassador's diary in which he warned of the coming attacks
    and the list could go on, and on, and on...

    Romney needs to shut up about what he is going to do, let Ryan speak about the economy and just attack the hell out of Obama.
    To make something simple is a thousand times more difficult than to make something complex.
    -Mikhail Kalashnikov
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,588 Senior Member
    I have no doubt if Ryan was at the head of the ticket the current situation would be much different and Obama would be in a lot more trouble. Still a long way to go, especially with the debates ahead, but Romney really needs to step it up if he wants to stay in this thing.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • SideOfBaconSideOfBacon Member Posts: 111 Member
    I have no doubt if Ryan was at the head of the ticket the current situation would be much different and Obama would be in a lot more trouble. Still a long way to go, especially with the debates ahead, but Romney really needs to step it up if he wants to stay in this thing.

    I wouldn't put too much faith in the debates. The questions have all been agreed upon by both candidates and they wrote and are rehearsing their replies now. In fact, anything you hear that's different from the stump speeches these days is likely them trying out debate material. The only chance of anything real coming out is if someone screws up or melts down. But, in reality, I doubt they will move the polls.

    There IS a chance at October surprise, though. It's possible there is something to Fast and Furious that they are waiting to release, but after the response to the report that came out, I somewhat doubt it. I don't think Darrel Issa ever found his smoking gun. There's also the chance that someone comes out with Romney's 2009 tax return showing he took the felony tax amnesty. THAT could sink the campaign. But, again, if that was even true or going to happen, I bet it would have already. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

    And there are a lot of things to consider with polls these days. Are they asking registered or likely voters? Are they automated or live? Internet polls? Phone polls? To landlines only in the middle of the day (Like Rasmussen) or cell phones too? Nate Silver over at 538 has been pretty good at seeing through them, and he does not paint a pretty picture for Romney. But, who knows...
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,588 Senior Member
    I don't put much faith in single polls, but in aggregate over time they do usually paint a decent picture of the range of possibilities of what might happen. I also like the prediction markets as a decent gauge of at least approximately what the odds are. Things can always change though and its difficult to predict turnout which always has an affect as well.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,552 Senior Member
    I don't put much faith in single polls, but in aggregate over time they do usually paint a decent picture of the range of possibilities of what might happen. I also like the prediction markets as a decent gauge of at least approximately what the odds are. Things can always change though and its difficult to predict turnout which always has an affect as well.

    Obama's team knows the results are manufactured, else he wouldn't be working Ohio so hard, which his polls show to be in the bag for him.

    Also, the worst of them (major media) are intentionally using illogical methods to weight them, such as basing the sampling models on the turnout for 2008, when Obama's 'accomplishments' were unknown, McCain was putting everyone to sleep, and electing the first black president was on so many people's minds. Heck, some of them are even using selected exit polls as the models, which are notoriously inaccurate. Some of the polls are even predicting a likely 1% voter turnout for independents, and 43% Democrat vs 37% Republican turnout - reasoning being.....what?

    Maybe it will all backfire because some of the idiots whose votes he bought will think they don't even have to bother -naw - I guess they don't even know what a poll is.
  • bruchibruchi Senior Member Posts: 2,582 Senior Member
    As much as I am against polllitics in general, they must be erased from the face of the earth I live in the real world an I will always prefer a Republican in the White House and every other seat. I fret at the the reality that Obama will win again and most probably by a larger margin than last time.

    IMO one major mistake the Republicans did was to support putting "Arnold" in the Governor's seat in California, they should lock that support to folks that fulfill all the requirements to get into the White House plus garner the following to do so. To beat the Democrat machine the Republicans need someone that has a lot more familiarity with the voters than what they have offered for some time now and being the Governor of the most, by lots, populated state in the nation does a lot of that.
    If this post is non welcomed, I can always give you a recipe for making "tostones".
  • ace7644ace7644 Member Posts: 55 Member
    I dont think it will be close at all. Romney has to rock the debates, which has about as much a chance of happening as me getting hit by lightning. I don't think republicans are fired up at all for this election and a lot will elect to just stay home and bicker as the pols come in on election night.
  • bullsi1911bullsi1911 Moderator Posts: 9,666 Senior Member
    ace7644 wrote: »
    I don't think republicans are fired up at all for this election and a lot will elect to just stay home and bicker as the pols come in on election night.

    I think you may be wrong on that. I don't think there are many Republicans that are all that excited about Romney... but they are REALLY excited about firing Obama.
    To make something simple is a thousand times more difficult than to make something complex.
    -Mikhail Kalashnikov
  • SirGeorgeKillianSirGeorgeKillian Senior Member Posts: 5,458 Senior Member
    bullsi1911 wrote: »
    I think you may be wrong on that. I don't think there are many Republicans that are all that excited about Romney... but they are REALLY excited about firing Obama.

    This.
    Unless life also hands you water and sugar, your lemonade is gonna suck!
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    I'm in love with a Glock
  • samzheresamzhere Banned Posts: 10,923 Senior Member
    Agreed this will be a close election. And it could go either way. Damn.

    We've got about a half dozen swing states that will determine the winner. Much as we might wish, there's zero way NY or Calif will go Romney, and thankfully, other large states like Texas are guaranteed anti-Obama.

    Voters in Florida, Colorado, Iowa, etc. will determine the next 4 years.

    However, if you look at the polls, you see a trend that the press doesn't talk about -- the sampling. If you look at the actual percent of Demos vs Republicans sampled, the percent of Demos sampled is always about 5+, which easily accounts for the lead that Obama shows.

    So maybe, if you look at Rassmussen poll's likely voters, his is the only one showing Romney slghtly ahead.

    Also remember that the pollsters and mainstream press TOTALLY missed the 2008 Republican sweep. I can only hope they're equally wrong.

    Critics of Romney can be very critical, but we've got to realize that he's the nominee. Others had their chance and didn't win more votes or get more money. And yeah, we've not heard too much lately from the Ron Paul folks who predicted an open convention and a surprise RP nomination. Didn't happen.

    Romney won the nomination fair and square. There were other candidates who had their chance. That's how it works.

    Now we've all got to vote to clear Obama out. I hope we can do it. It will be close.

    Outside of a dog, a book is a man’s best friend. Inside of a dog, it’s too dark to read. - Groucho Marx
  • tennmiketennmike Senior Member Posts: 25,789 Senior Member
    If people were half as fired up about Obama's failures as they have been about the substitute NFL referees then Obama wouldn't stand a snowballs chance in Hell of winning the election. Sad state of things when the NFL referee flap is more important than the state and direction the country is heading. The beer, bread, and circus crowd won't pay any attention until the government implodes from untenable debt.
    Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.


  • JeeperJeeper Senior Member Posts: 2,952 Senior Member
    tennmike wrote: »
    If people were half as fired up about Obama's failures as they have been about the substitute NFL referees then Obama wouldn't stand a snowballs chance in Hell of winning the election. Sad state of things when the NFL referee flap is more important than the state and direction the country is heading. The beer, bread, and circus crowd won't pay any attention until the government implodes from untenable debt.

    :that: Agreed. You can see it coming from a mile away if you just bother to look.

    Luis
    Wielding the Hammer of Thor first requires you to lift and carry the Hammer of Thor. - Bigslug
  • TeachTeach Senior Member Posts: 18,263 Senior Member
    Even if Romney pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins- - - -what's going to happen with the Senate? I've heard precious little of the Tea Party involvement that won the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010. Have they just given up and gone home now that Romney is the nominee? I'd like to see all the Senate RINO's and a bunch of the liberal dinosaurs in the Senate handed their walking papers, along with Obummer! Romney can't do a lot of damage if the real conservatives hold his feet to the fire. If we don't win the Senate, there will be another four years of stalemate, courtesy of the liberal clowns who control it now!
    Jerry
    Hide and wail in terror, Eloi- - - -We Morlocks are on the hunt!
    ASK-HOLE Someone who asks for advice and always does something opposite
  • bruchibruchi Senior Member Posts: 2,582 Senior Member
    You would be surprised at how many folks do not agree with the running train of thought here regarding how lousy a president Obama has been, like it or not there is a majority that votes and that is enamored with the guy, that's the problem regarding an electoral system that gives anyone and everyone the right to vote, is not about who is right but who is more popular and fools the largest group so talk all you want negatively about the guy, talking and ranting is not going to accomplish a thing.
    If this post is non welcomed, I can always give you a recipe for making "tostones".
  • horselipshorselips Senior Member Posts: 3,624 Senior Member
    If Emperor Caligula's horse can be a Roman Consul, Romney can be President. Fortunately, Romney is an accomplished leader, brilliant innovator, and competent manager. If we can elect him, and give him a GOP House and Senate, TEOTWAWKI may be tossed into the dustbin of history. Whatever will I do with all this food, water and prepper stuff? Oh well, better safe than sorry...

    A Romney and GOP Senate victory would insure a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and also set up Ryan to be elected President in 2020. YESSSS!
  • bklysenbklysen Member Posts: 403 Member
    Still a good amount of time, but unless Romney really kills the debates or something major comes out that hurts Obama this thing is looking like its over....

    Any chance you want to revisit your thinking there?

    Edit to say, the only thing that might 'come out' to hurt Obama, is Obama. We love to hear him tell us what he really feels without the teleprompter, and I personally would pay a King's ransom to have somebody follow Biden around with a microphone for a few more weeks.

    Just a couple of observations.
  • alphasigmookiealphasigmookie Senior Member Posts: 8,588 Senior Member
    As I said before
    unless Romney really kills the debates

    Romney did kill the first debate (at least according to the pundits...from what I saw he did only above average, but Obama flat sucked) which has breathed new life into his campaign and brought this thing back into a tight race. Despite the few recent polls that have put Romney in the lead, I think Obama is still the slight favorite, but not by nearly as much as he was. Obama needs a least a draw out of the next few debates and as you suggest Biden needs to mostly keep his mouth shut. The prediction markets have moved from a 75%+ chance of Obama winning to just over 60% so the move is significant for Romney. He may gain some additional momentum after the VP debate in which Ryan has to be considered a favorite. That should put a lot of pressure on Obama in the last 2 debates.
    "Finding out that you have run out of toilet paper is a good example of lack of preparation, buying 10 years worth is silly"
    -DoctorWho
  • bruchibruchi Senior Member Posts: 2,582 Senior Member
    Wambli Ska wrote: »
    I call it lack of core principles


    "GO TEAM"...!!!

    That polarized "TEAM thinking" I call brain washing augmented by the need to save face...

    This are the folks we "elect' and depend on to administrate our resources and well being, not a ball game, beats the hell out of me why in this age of time with so much information at their hands, educated, intelligent folks choose to be so blind regarding their attachment to this right down the middle segregation of the country.

    Simple "divide and conquer" that only benefits those elected, their "TEAM" of course and whomever pockets/agendas they lie in and that is not a 2 team deal, it then a lot of greedy hands pulling their way as hard as they can muster!
    If this post is non welcomed, I can always give you a recipe for making "tostones".
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,552 Senior Member
    That should put a lot of pressure on Obama in the last 2 debates.

    The pressure has always been on Obama, because he is selling something that doesn't work, never has, and never will. That is European socialism and appeasement of our sworn enemies, a la Neville Chamberlain. You merely saw him in the debate as he really is, when the deck isn't stacked for him - clueless about capitalism and economics, and stuck like a broken record on the same BS that lefties everywhere believe with all their hearts, but can't cite a single examlple of success with. You will see the same thing if he has to wing it on foreign affairs and national defense, if the moderator cannot protect him any better that Lehrer did.

    In 2008, he ran against the image of George W. Bush that it took six years of moveon.org style character assassination and media bias to create, and he was aided by the worst candidate the Republicans have fielded since Bob Dole, who compunded by that by refusing to attack him on perfectly legitimate grounds. This time, that is not working because, despite what all his promoters are trying to sell, he has a record, and it is dismal.

    Romney and Ryan have very little pressure, because all they have to do is be themselves. They know these subjects inside and out because they have years of experience and they honestly believe what they are saying. There are no land mines out there for them to avoid, whereas Obama has to watch every step, lest he be 'caught out' on actions that he cannot defend to any objective viewer. He has no strategy, other than to lie and misdirect, and hope that the moderator will help him run out the clock, before Romney nails his hide to the wall.
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