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I predict that...

bisleybisley Senior MemberPosts: 10,813 Senior Member
...Rubio will drop out in time to give Cruz a chance to win Florida, and that...

Kasich will win Ohio, denying Trump the 150 or so delegates he needs to start running away with the race. After that, I don't know, yet.

If Rubio is seriously thinking about dropping out, which he swears he isn't, the best time would be before the debate. But, he may participate and check the polls, again.

Replies

  • BAMAAKBAMAAK Senior Member Posts: 4,484 Senior Member
    I think Donald offered to pay off his campaign dept if he stays in and draws votes away from Cruz :jester:
    "He only earns his freedom and his life Who takes them every day by storm."

    -- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, German writer and politician
  • tubabucknuttubabucknut Banned Posts: 3,520 Senior Member
    If Rubio honestly wanted to stop Trump, as he says, he would drop out now. He won't. Politicians are all egoists.
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 16,244 Senior Member
    If he wants to do the right thing, he will continue his attacks on Trump tonight (that have been hurting him just as much as they have been hurting Trump) then drop out tomorrow-- basically what Christie did to him (that helped Trump quite a bit in South Carolina).
    Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.
    -Thomas Paine
  • Big ChiefBig Chief Senior Member Posts: 32,995 Senior Member
    I dunno Jerm, he told Megan yesterday that attack on Trump wasn't "Me".

    Should be an interesting debate tonight, CNN 8:30 I believe. Being held in Miami.

    I dunno if we will see the Cuban Sandwich again!
    It's only true if it's on this forum where opinions are facts and facts are opinions
    Words of wisdom from Big Chief: Flush twice, it's a long way to the Mess Hall
    I'd rather have my sister work in a whorehouse than own another Taurus!
  • snake284snake284 Senior Member Posts: 22,429 Senior Member
    Marco needs to take a hike. I know I say I'll vote for Trump, and I will, IF he's on the Republican ticket, but that's a last resort to try to keep Hildabury out of the white house only. I want Cruz to get the nomination. Rubio needs to be a man and do the right thing. If the shoe was on the other foot and Rubio was second I would say the same of Cruz. I like Cruz better but I want somebody to beat Hildabeast.

    And for those that are afraid Cruz will be overboard on religion and take your rights away in the name of God, You're missing the point about Cruz. Remember, he will follow the constitution. That's what he's all about. And, he's more apt to pick good solid conservative court Justices.
    Daddy, what's an enabler?
    Son that's somebody with nothing to do with his time but keep me in trouble with mom.
  • JerryBobCoJerryBobCo Senior Member Posts: 8,227 Senior Member
    Not only should Rubio drop out, but he should strongly endorse Cruz and urge his supporters to do so too. I can't imagine a Rubio supporter switching allegiance to Trump after the way that Trump has attacked him, but you never know.

    And, even if Rubio does drop out before the Florida primary, I think that Trump will still win. I hope that Kasich stays in and wins Ohio, and then drops out. That's unlikely, though, as a win in Ohio will just give him incentive to stay in.

    One more thing. Even if Rubio stays in, I don't think he will win Florida. If that's the case, he'll probably drop out after the Florida primary.
    Jerry

    Gun control laws make about as much sense as taking ex-lax to cure a cough.
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 16,244 Senior Member
    snake284 wrote: »
    And for those that are afraid Cruz will be overboard on religion and take your rights away in the name of God, You're missing the point about Cruz. Remember, he will follow the constitution. That's what he's all about. And, he's more apt to pick good solid conservative court Justices.
    I agree with this 100%. He memorized the damn Constitution when he was a kid! I may not agree with him on everything, but you can trace all his positions back to the Constitution. I don't think you can ask much more than that from a potential president.
    Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.
    -Thomas Paine
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 16,244 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    If he wants to do the right thing, he will continue his attacks on Trump tonight (that have been hurting him just as much as they have been hurting Trump) then drop out tomorrow-- basically what Christie did to him (that helped Trump quite a bit in South Carolina).
    Oh, and Rubio can drop out and endorse Cruz at the same time that Carson is supposed to endorse Trump tomorrow. While it doesn't look like it, if Cruz took Florida and Kasich took Ohio, this would be a whole different race. Cruz and Trump would be even on delegates.
    Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.
    -Thomas Paine
  • JasonMPDJasonMPD Senior Member Posts: 6,577 Senior Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    I agree with this 100%. He memorized the damn Constitution when he was a kid! I may not agree with him on everything, but you can trace all his positions back to the Constitution. I don't think you can ask much more than that from a potential president.

    Cruz was my Florida primary vote. Not Rubio.
    “There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” – Will Rogers
  • LanceLance Member Posts: 149 Member
    Even if we remove the Trump effect from this primary, it was Christie that really put the nails in Rubio's coffin.

    He kinda reminds me of Edwards back in '04; likable, looks the part, loyal to a fault, but just can't keep up at this level. Hillary would've ate his lunch.

    But he's a good soldier, so I expect he'll fall on his sword after Tuesday.
  • centermass556centermass556 Senior Member Posts: 3,534 Senior Member
    But this highlights a fundamental issue with the Republican party at large. The Dems have it figured out, they pre-game or pre-socialize a few candidates and then narrow it to two for the primaries. And everyone gets behind one candidate or the other. Who ever wins the primary gets all of the Dem votes..end of story.

    The republicans open the doors to every Huey, duey, and lewy that wants to run and lets them continue to back bite and sling mud all the way until the end. The end result is a fractured party.

    The second term effect is this, It is not the people already in either camp (Rep or Dem) that need to be captured. Their vote is already cast. It is the people in the middle (independent ) that are the concern. And, lately all the drama stirred up by the Rep party has done nothing but swing those votes to the Dems.

    Why do you think the Dems were so up in arms about Petraeus? It was all for show. They wanted to disqualify him from the get. After that, there was no way he could run on the Rep ticket. And, and, they knew when the Reps brought up Clinton's email issues it would look like petty -for-tat by the Reps. And it did.

    Here is the kicker. 24 states do not have delegate laws. I think we are going to see that play out this election. It couldn't be proven that it happened in the 1960 election...but, I am sure we are going to see it now.
    "To have really lived, you must have almost died. To those who have fought for it, freedom has a flavor the protected will never know."
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    The debate was very good, with all of the three opposing Trump showing a mastery of the issues that related to the questions, and him responding by answering questions he wasn't asked by looping through part of his mantra. They asked him a question about saving social security, and within 10 seconds he was talking about the VA, China, and....making America great, again.

    The pundits hated this debate, with no blood on the floor, and chastized everyone for not ganging up on Trump. But, anyone who watched it should have been able to see that Trump cannot compete with the others when it comes to spelling out their solutions. Rubio was back in the form he had before Christie blew him up, but it's much too late, and he was probably never going to win, anyway. People seem to like him and wish him well, but that does not equate to votes...at least not in this dogfight. He is still vowing to stay in, but reality should start to set in very soon, after the lukewarm response to the debate.

    Cruz was fluent on every issue, and made points against Hilary Clinton that obviously applied to Donald Trump, as well. Very artful passive-aggressive arguments that made the point without flipping Trump's switch. I think anyone who was actually undecided would be drawn to his logic.
  • Murphy's LawMurphy's Law Member Posts: 313 Member
    Jermanator wrote: »
    If he wants to do the right thing, he will continue his attacks on Trump tonight (that have been hurting him just as much as they have been hurting Trump) then drop out tomorrow-- basically what Christie did to him (that helped Trump quite a bit in South Carolina).

    Agree
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    This. Marco and Kasich will try to deny Trump as many delegates as they can on Tuesday and will both probably be out of the race by the end of the week.

    By doing that, he may deny Cruz the chance to win in Missouri, NC, and maybe even Illinois. If he gets out, Cruz may still lose Florida, but he might offset those 99 delegates by winning in the other states, if Kasich wins in Ohio.

    I agree that Rubio shows no sign of getting out before the vote in Florida. Still, I hold on to my belief that he wants what is best for the country and that he is plenty smart enough to see the writing on the wall. Hopefully, he will do what he can to prevent the disaster that nominating Trump will be. I will be very disappointed if ruins the best chance there is to beat Trump.
  • BigDanSBigDanS Senior Member Posts: 6,992 Senior Member
    The Republican Party advisers are creating a strategy to defeat Trump in the Primaries, except it is going to play right into Trump's hands.

    What's his message? " Politicians are corrupt, do nothings that make promises they do not keep." So here is a corrupt effort to subvert the will of the people to support another candidate other than the current leader. Cruz is not far behind Trump, but the numbers in Ohio and Florida could make a significant difference. 360 delegates are up for grabs in total. Kasich has the best resume. Trump has the loudest support and most active groups likely to make it to the polls. I believe Trump will come out of Tuesday looking even better than before.

    It is looking like the weather will be clear and people will be making it out to vote in large numbers, which likely means Trump will win.

    IMHO

    D
    "A patriot is mocked, scorned and hated; yet when his cause succeeds, all men will join him, for then it costs nothing to be a patriot." Mark Twain
    Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.... now who's bringing the hot wings? :jester:
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    Here is the bottom line, in Florida:

    Republicans who don't want Trump have enough votes to defeat him, IF they UNITE behind ONE of them...if they can agree on who that should be.

    Kasich will not drop out, and shouldn't, because he can win Ohio, and deny him those delegates.

    Cruz should not drop out, because he is within a hundred delegates of catching Trump, and because he has a chance to beat Trump in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina...if Rubio drops out before Tuesday.

    Rubio is about 300 delegates behind Trump. He is not going to win Florida, or anything else. The only remaining function he has in this nomination process is to deny Trump delegates, and he can no longer even deliver that...EXCEPT by bowing out and supporting Cruz. He is not stupid. He knows that Cruz could very possibly jump ahead of Trump in the delegate count, if he dropped out and supported him.

    By staying in the race, he is actually proving that his sole driving force is personal ambition. He is also proving that he is a tool of the Republican establishment who fears a reformer even more than they fear a narcissistic bomb-thrower who is more Democrat than Republican.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    Here's the issue, many anti Trump people are equally if not more strongly anti Cruz. I don't like Trump much, but I'd vote for him well before I'd ever vote for Cruz.

    Yes, I understand that. You are ideologically opposed to him, and you are not a Republican (conservative or establishment), and would be expected to feel that way. You say you voted for Kasich, so I'm assuming that Bernie is even too far out socialist for you, and that Hilary's baggage has become too heavy. Or maybe you were just doing your part to manipulate the Republican primary, and will vote Dem in the general election.

    But, I find it ridiculous that Republicans seem more likely to support a big government liberal 'Republican' who has a lifelong history of participating in the Washington D.C. corruption he rants against, instead of a genuine conservative who has an impeccable record of fighting unconstitutional behavior, big government, amnesty, Obamacare, etc. Obviously, a huge number of disgruntled Democrats, mostly union people, are crossing over and severely skewing all the normal expectations, but still, plenty of Republicans.

    Granted that he embarrassed the hell out of the Republican leadership by leading the fight against the Gang of Eight immigration compromise with liberal Democrats. He has angered Mitch McConnell, John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and their cohorts that even include the other Texas senator, John Cornyn, who has always been a closet RINO during his off-election years.

    Still, there is a clear and obvious route to nominating a conservative candidate with honest votes, and they pretend that it doesn't exist. Rubio supporters would be enough to put Cruz over, before the convention, if he dropped out today. Instead, they concoct a ridiculous scheme that they think will deny the nomination to both Trump and Cruz, and they seem to believe that their electorate will accept their pick to replace them, in a contested convention. Even if it would work, they would do more harm to the party than Cruz would ever do. More likely, Trump would win, outright.

    The only reason I can think of that they would attempt such an idiotic thing is that Cruz threatens the power of the Republican leadership, as a reformer, and everyone else who has 'played ball' with them.
  • JermanatorJermanator Senior Member Posts: 16,244 Senior Member
    I don't like Trump much, but I'd vote for him well before I'd ever vote for Cruz.
    Honest question... why are you so strongly against Cruz?
    Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it.
    -Thomas Paine
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    He strikes me the same way most televangelists do. He seems like a slimeball who's trying to drape himself in the Bible and the Constitution to cover up the stench....

    Very ironic.

    I was nine years old when I heard something similar for the first time - about JFK, who was going to be a tool of the Pope. About the same amount of evidence to back it up, too. If Cruz is a fanatic, it's about the Constitution - not religion. Methinks that you probably believe that all people of faith are dangerous fools.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    .... as a conservative, but I misjudged his commitment.

    The polls are opening in Florida, and Rubio is still there, pitiful though it may be. He has shown anyone who is paying attention that his conservatism is negotiable, preferring to fall on his sword for the Republican establishment. I was a little worried that he had been playing 'footsie' with them, since the day after he won his Senate seat by promising voters to fight the status quo in the Senate. He has now thoroughly confirmed to all Trump supporters that he is exactly the type of politician they are rebelling against.

    Ted Cruz is not dead, yet, even if Trump sweeps the field, today. But the hill Cruz will have to climb is daunting. He has been anxious to get to a one-on-one contest, and he may have it after today. But, he will have to win nearly everywhere, to deny Trump the 1237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination, and take his fight to the convention floor.

    We are about to find out how many rock-jawed conservatives are left in the Republican Party, mostly in northern and western states. It's a crazy election year, and predictions are worthless, at this point. Still, it is a fact that somewhere between 50-75% of Republicans are still rejecting Trump. If Rubio and Kasich both stay in and continue to dilute the anti-Trump numbers, Trump will likely win the delegates needed to avoid the floor fight at the convention. If they get out, there is some chance that Cruz can still win in a head-to-head race.

    When this is all over and people are thinking logically, again, they may change their minds about who was the real anti-establisment, populist candidate...whoever wins.
  • bisleybisley Senior Member Posts: 10,813 Senior Member
    I'd say it's a bit of an open question which way has a better chance of denying Trump the delegates he needs to wrap it up. I'm sure someone has done the math, but trump probably wins more total delegates if the other two drop out, but Cruz has a sliver of hope of beating him straight up if it's one on one.

    One of the popular words that we hear all of the time, these days, is optics...how things look to the voters, well informed ones, or not well informed. I think the Republican Party establishment is ignoring that, in the same way that the DNC has been ignoring it ever since they dreamed up the super delegate scheme to deprive the 'rank and file' of choosing the candidate. The Democrat 'race' is highlighting the unfairness of that, in a way that has not happened before.

    If the Republicans are to have any hope of continuing to distinguish themselves from the opposition, they better not try to nominate a candidate (Kasich, Rubio, Bush, etc) that has already been resoundingly rejected by their base supporters. In the case of Cruz, if his campaign succeeds in denying Trump 1237 delegates in head-to-head competition, there is a much greater likelihood that voters (not Congressmen) will accept it. If Cruz can't pull it off, they better make peace with Trump. Their Rube Goldberg scheme to somehow nominate a safe establishment type is a disaster.

    A brokered convention is a stupid idea, optics-wise, whereas a hard fought horse-race that yields no clear winner may at least provide enough justification for the rules to be followed, and allow the existing convention process to select one of the two winners. Any 'third option' will be a bigger disaster than nominating the likes of Bob Dole, John McCain, or Mitt Romney.
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